GCAP GOLD assesses that gold prices remain under pressure from the monetary policy direction of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled readiness to continue controlling inflation. This has led the market to increase the probability of a rate hike in September to about 60%, up from 35%, while supporting bond yields and a stronger dollar, which are factors pressuring gold prices in the short term. However, the interest rate outlook remains uncertain, as recent data reflect fragility in the labor market, with non-farm payrolls for July falling by 23,000 positions, and the May and June figures were revised down by a total of more than 103,000 positions. A key factor the market is watching is the release of the August Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, September 4, at 7:30 PM Thailand time. The market expects employment to increase by about 58,000 positions, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. If the data comes in better than expected, it would add pressure on gold, but if it comes in lower than expected, it would open an opportunity for gold to recover. The research team recommends a strategy of waiting to buy when the price forms a base, watching key support at $4,300/$4,235, or Thai gold around 67,800–67,000 baht. If the price forms a base and buying interest returns, then enter a buy, with a profit-taking target at $4,425–$4,450, or Thai gold around 69,700–70,000 baht. Meanwhile, if the price recovers and holds above $4,500, or Thai gold around 70,500 baht, it would be a positive signal reflecting that short-term pressure is easing.
G Capital Public Company LimitedFed signals readiness to control inflation, raising rate-hike odds and supporting higher policy rate
Rate-hike expectations and stronger dollar push bond yields up
