A Goldman Sachs economist warns that artificial intelligence may take 15 years to meaningfully boost economic productivity, a timeline that could upend retirement plans for near-retirees banking on an AI-driven market rally. The economist notes that fewer than 20% of U.S. businesses currently use AI for any function, and Goldman's research finds no economy-wide link between AI adoption and productivity. For a 63-year-old relying on continued strong stock returns, the caution is especially relevant because sequence-of-returns risk can permanently damage a portfolio if withdrawals occur during a downturn. Delaying Social Security from age 62 to 70 can increase monthly benefits from roughly $1,680 to $2,976, providing a larger inflation-adjusted income floor that hedges against both longevity and market risk. Holding one to three years of expenses in cash and short bonds further protects against forced equity sales in a slump.
Goldman Sachs Group IncGoldman Sachs economist warns AI productivity gains may take 15 years, questioning near-term AI-driven market rally
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