Goldman Sachs Says AI Is Starting to Pressure Labor Markets, with New Graduates Most at Risk

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Goldman Sachs has released its latest research showing that artificial intelligence is beginning to have a clear impact on labor markets in developed countries, with entry-level workers facing the greatest pressure. Since the second half of 2022, industries at high risk of AI replacing human work have seen slower growth in job openings than other industries, particularly in Germany, Australia, and the United States. Call center businesses have been hit hardest, with US employment 39% below its long-term trend, Canada 33% below, and Germany 27% below. Software businesses, management consulting, and advertising services have also fallen significantly below historical trends in several countries. Goldman Sachs analyzed employment growth across more than 800 occupations and found that AI pressure is most severe among entry-level workers. Occupations with a 10% increase in AI exposure are associated with a decline in annual employee growth of only about 0.1 percentage point in France, Canada, and the United States, but for entry-level workers the impact is much larger, at more than 0.6 percentage point in Australia and more than 0.2 percentage point in the United States. Goldman Sachs concluded that AI pressure on hiring is already evident in labor market data worldwide, but it remains concentrated in certain industries and certain groups of workers rather than causing a broad-based reduction in employment across the entire economy.

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Goldman Sachs research on AI labor market impact is a product of its research division, but the news is about its analysis, not its own financials or operations.

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