Goldman Sachs Says S&P 500 Bull Market Ranks in Top 10% Historically

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The S&P 500 has surged roughly 95% since late 2022, placing this bull market in the top 10% of all rallies recorded since 1928, according to Goldman Sachs. The median historical bull market returned about 35% over a comparable period, while the top quartile returned about 50%, making the current advance nearly double that of even the strongest past cycles. Goldman Sachs attributes the rally to real earnings growth and heavy investment in AI infrastructure rather than speculative excess, noting that forward price-to-earnings multiples have risen but not enough to explain a market that has almost doubled. Companies including Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Broadcom have translated AI enthusiasm into real revenue growth and record capital spending. While the Shiller CAPE ratio remains elevated, Goldman Sachs believes the cycle is still supported by earnings and that measures of market exuberance remain below the extremes of the dot-com bubble or the 2021 meme-stock frenzy.

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Artificial Intelligence · 5 stocks
Financials · 1 stocks

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