Goldman says rising EV sales could cut oil demand by up to 0.32 million barrels per day by late 2027

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Goldman Sachs says accelerating electric vehicle adoption is adding downside risk to global oil demand, estimating the recent surge in EV sales could reduce demand by up to 0.32 million barrels per day by December 2027. Global EV car sales penetration rose 3.4 percentage points since February to an all-time high of 26.1% last month, excluding a September 2025 spike tied to a U.S. tax credit expiry. China led the gains with an 11.4 percentage point increase, and 12 of the 15 largest EV markets saw higher penetration. Under a persistent acceleration scenario where trends continue, the demand loss reaches 0.32 million barrels per day, while a temporary scenario holding at May 2026 levels yields a 0.13 million barrel per day hit. The analysis understates the full impact because it excludes two- and three-wheeler EVs, which account for 92% of total EV sales in India and 80% in Vietnam, as well as the roughly 55% of global oil demand unrelated to road fuels.

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