Volkswagen Cuts 2026 Profit Outlook on China Slump and Porsche Writedown

Several US auto industry groups have sent a letter to President Trump urging him to block Chinese-made automobiles from entering the US market, ahead of a planned US-China summit next week. Among the groups that signed the letter are the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which includes passenger car manufacturers from Japan, the US and Europe, and the National Automobile Dealers Association. Chinese-made passenger cars are effectively shut out of the US market by high tariffs and other measures, and the letter, dated the 17th, calls for the current policy to be maintained. It argues that easing entry restrictions would "undermine fair competition."

Tesla is preparing to enter the European electric truck market, bringing its European Semi to the IAA Transportation trade fair in Hanover, Germany, after publishing key European specifications ahead of the event. The European version of the Semi offers a range of up to 550 kilometers and energy consumption of about 1 kilowatt-hour per kilometer, with deliveries poised to begin next year. According to Transport & Environment, new entrants collectively could capture 24% to 31% of Europe's electric heavy-truck market by 2030, though that estimate assumes manufacturers meet their stated production and sales ambitions. Tesla faces aggressive competition from established manufacturers that already offer EV trucks and hold extensive fleet-operator relationships, and its 550-kilometer range sits below some competing models that can travel roughly 700 kilometers on a single charge. The company would also need heavy capital spending on high-power charging infrastructure along freight corridors and must scale production alongside Semi deliveries to achieve mass adoption. Hedge fund holdings in Tesla declined to 116 in the second quarter from 123 in the first quarter, with BAMCO Inc. raising its stake by 5% to approximately $5.27 billion and DE Shaw cutting its position by 1% to about $1.83 billion.

Steve Eisman, the Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager made famous by The Big Short, said on his weekly wrap podcast that Tesla's valuation only makes sense if investors believe its robotaxi business will conquer the world, adding, "just count me a skeptic." Eisman noted Tesla's 2026 consensus EPS of $1.66 puts its 2026 P/E at 220 times, versus 6.5 times for General Motors, and that the estimate sits 59% below Tesla's 2022 peak EPS of $4.07. Tesla's Q2 2026 8-K, filed July 22, 2026, showed revenue of $28.24 billion, up 25.5% year over year, but non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 that missed the $0.54 estimate by 38.5%, operating income down 56.9% to $398 million, and free cash flow of negative $1.09 billion. On the bull side, Tesla has expanded Robotaxi service to seven U.S. metros with unsupervised rides in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa, reached 1.48 million active FSD subscriptions, up 56% year over year, and plans 2026 CapEx above $25 billion. GM, meanwhile, posted Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.57, beating the $3.18 estimate by 12.1% for a fifth consecutive beat, and raised full-year guidance to EBIT-adjusted of $14.0B to $16.0B and adjusted EPS of $12.00 to $14.00.