Hayes Predicts Fed to Expand Liquidity Amid French Bank Credit Concerns, a Tailwind for Crypto Markets

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โดย CoinPost·US·Read original
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Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of US hedge fund Maelstrom and co-founder of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, published a new essay titled "Atención" in his newsletter "Crypto Trader Digest" on the 3rd. He predicts that the euro-yen will fall from its current level of around 185 yen to below 140 yen by June next year, and sees this currency movement as the starting signal for the Fed to expand liquidity. The background is a dollar-weakening strategy led by US Treasury Secretary Bessent, and he points out that European assets are likely to become the next target of selling pressure after Japan. France's government spending accounts for about 60% of GDP, and it has become a net debtor under the ECB's Target2 since 2021, making French government bonds and bonds of major banks such as BNP Paribas vulnerable to selling. Hayes analyzes that the three major French banks (BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole, and Société Générale) hold about 20% of the US repo market, and if their funding capacity weakens, the Fed would be forced to increase its bond purchase program (RMP). The Fed has been buying short-term Treasuries under the RMP since December 2025, absorbing about 40% of recent issuance at a pace of about $22 billion per month, but Hayes estimates that if the Treasury strengthens its buybacks of long-term bonds, the pace could expand to $100 billion per month. Maelstrom maintains a long-term holding strategy centered on Bitcoin, while setting short-term targets by the end of 2026: Ethereum at $10,000, Ethena (ENA) at $0.50, and Ether.fi (ETHFI) at $2.

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