Japan’s ‘Strong and Rich’ strategy could drive bigger yen swings

MacroDigital Finance Impact 4
โดย Investing.com·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Japan’s planned shift towards investment-led growth could increase volatility in the yen as policymakers balance industrial spending, heavy government debt and rising borrowing costs, Deutsche Bank analysts said. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s “Strong and Rich Japan” blueprint seeks to reverse decades of underinvestment through 370 trillion yen in public-private projects across seventeen strategic industries including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, defence, aviation, shipbuilding and critical minerals. Financing those ambitions presents a challenge, with Japan’s government debt exceeding 200% of gross domestic product, and the new fiscal framework shifts attention away from annual primary-balance targets towards a sustained reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio. That approach relies on keeping nominal economic growth above the government’s average funding cost, targeting 3% nominal GDP growth through 2040 by combining 2% inflation with 1% real growth, but each 100-basis-point rate increase could add about 5 trillion yen, or 0.7% of GDP, to consolidated financing costs. Policymakers may respond by directing more domestic savings towards government bonds and strategic investments, with Japanese households holding about half of their $15 trillion in savings as cash and deposits, and the Government Pension Investment Fund holding half of its $1.8 trillion portfolio overseas, where moving to the upper end of permitted domestic allocation ranges could bring roughly $200 billion back into Japanese stocks and bonds. Such repatriation would support the yen, while renewed Bank of Japan bond purchases or prolonged monetary accommodation aimed at controlling yields would probably weaken it, and with USD/JPY remaining near 160 and one-year currency volatility near multi-year lows, markets are left vulnerable to larger moves as Japan shifts its policy focus from stabilising the yen towards managing government yields.

Impact on stocks 1

Financials · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 4

Related news

3impact 4

US, Denmark and Greenland Reach New Security Agreement, Replacing 1951 Pact

The United States has reached an agreement with Greenland and Denmark that will open the way for the US to permanently expand its military and security role on the island of Greenland, while blocking the influence of adversary nations. The three parties are expected to sign jointly during the United Nations General Assembly in New York next week, and the new agreement will replace the 1951 Greenland Defense Agreement. The US State Department stated that the agreement will prohibit countries that are not members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, from establishing bases or stationing troops in Greenland, and will also bar non-allied countries from investing in mining and critical minerals. These conditions appear aimed at blocking China or Russia from accessing resources or establishing military footholds in Greenland. President Donald Trump posted a message stressing that the United States will be able to do everything necessary to ensure stability and protect the security of Greenland, as well as that of the United States, and confirmed that this is not a transfer of sovereignty or a cession of territory to the US. Meanwhile, Mette Frederiksen, the Prime Minister of Denmark, and Jens-Frederik Nielsen, the Prime Minister of Greenland, confirmed the agreement through a joint statement, with Frederiksen stating that the agreement will help strengthen security in the Arctic and North Atlantic region, while affirming the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Denmark, as well as the right of Greenlanders to determine their own future.
Politico·5hRead more →
impact 4

China Rare Earth Group in talks to acquire Shenghe Resources, sources say

China Rare Earth Group, a state-owned rare earth giant, is in talks to acquire Shenghe Resources, according to two people familiar with the matter. The talks began this year, and China Rare Earth Group wants to take a controlling stake, the sources said. If a deal is reached, Shenghe's holdings in overseas companies would be transferred, including a 3% stake in US rare earth company MP Materials, which would put China Rare Earth Group in the position of investing in MP, whose largest shareholder is the US Department of Defense. A successful acquisition would bring one of China's last major privately owned rare earth mining and refining companies under China Rare Earth Group, ending a decades-long effort to consolidate the sector under state control. Shenghe acquired Australia's Peak Rare Earths last year. According to one of the sources, a deal would make it easier for Shenghe to secure the quotas the Chinese government uses to manage supply. China Rare Earth Group, Shenghe Resources and China's Ministry of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.
ロイター·1dRead more →
impact 4

Trump and Xi to discuss trade in Washington, with agriculture, energy and rare earths in focus

US President Donald Trump is set to hold trade talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington on September 24, with trade in agricultural goods, energy and rare earths among the key issues both sides have used as bargaining chips in the trade war and which are likely to be raised again. On agricultural goods, one of the major US exports to China worth 29 billion dollars in 2024, China agreed to buy 25 million tonnes of soybeans a year from the United States through 2028, according to the White House, and US officials said China also agreed to buy an additional 17 billion dollars of other agricultural products during Trump's visit to Beijing in May. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on September 3 that incentive measures to promote US agricultural sales to China could be announced. On energy, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, September 15, that energy tariffs could be part of a 30 billion dollar reciprocal tariff reduction package, which was signalled after the May summit but has not yet been implemented. Meanwhile, US energy imports between 2020 and 2024 were worth between 7.5 billion dollars and 12 billion dollars a year. As for rare earths, where China controls production and has restricted exports to the United States, the issue has not been fully resolved. Reuters reported that US officials have demanded China honour its commitment to maintain continuous deliveries of these critical raw materials, and ahead of this summit the United States signalled the possibility of lifting some sanctions while threatening to impose additional ones. Trump said he would consider lifting some sanctions after the visit to Beijing.
InfoQuest·1dRead more →