Soybean Futures

Grain futures closed higher across the board at the CBOT on Wednesday (Aug. 26), led by wheat which surged to its daily trading limit and hit a multi-year high, following reports that Russia is preparing to escalate missile strikes on Kyiv, underscoring the risk of disruption to Black Sea grain exports. Corn and soybeans also rallied to contract highs across all delivery months, supported by wheat's strength. December wheat rose 45.00 cents, or 6.40%, to close at $7.4825 per bushel; December corn rose 13.00 cents, or 2.48%, to close at $5.3650 per bushel; and November soybeans rose 28.25 cents, or 2.28%, to close at $12.6600 per bushel. The surge in wheat was attributed to a Bloomberg report citing sources close to the Kremlin that Russia is considering increasing missile attacks on central Kyiv and key infrastructure across Ukraine, as it assesses that peace negotiations have failed and reached a dead end. Meanwhile, grain loading at Black Sea ports in both countries has nearly come to a complete halt, creating uncertainty over global supplies of wheat from Russia and corn from Ukraine. Corn also drew support from field surveys in the Midwest indicating that this year's yields will be significantly lower than USDA estimates. Soybeans closed strongly higher on continued buying from China, a recovery in crude oil prices, and the U.S. Treasury's announcement of sanctions on 60 individuals, entities, and vessels linked to trade with Iran, though Chinese financial institutions were not included on the list.

Tisco Securities has maintained its buy recommendation on Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited, or TVO, with a fair value of 33.75 baht, and raised its 2026 profit forecast by 16% to 1.2 billion baht, citing a stronger-than-expected gross margin trend. It expects core profit in the third quarter of 2026 at around 750 million baht, up 74% from the same period last year but down 3% from the previous quarter, as soybean costs are expected to remain stable while domestic soybean meal prices are likely to rise by a low single-digit percentage, pushing gross margin above 13%. Management noted that the cost structure of imported soybeans follows an inverted-U shape through the year, with the second and third quarters of 2026 being the periods when the company enjoys a cost advantage, while costs are expected to gradually increase in the fourth quarter of 2026. However, 2026 operating performance is likely to beat the original target, under which the company aimed for total revenue growth of about 15%, while the first half of 2026 grew more than 20% and machinery is running at full capacity. Revenue growth in the first half of 2026 came more from sales volume than from price increases, with soybean meal sales volume up 30% from a year earlier while average selling price fell about 7% and unit costs declined 7-8%. Soybean oil sales volume rose 28%, while average selling price fell 3-6% and costs declined 1%, reflecting that growth came from volume and procurement efficiency rather than temporary margin gains, which Tisco views as more sustainable. For 2027, growth will not be supported by volume because the company has production capacity of 7,000 tonnes per day and a utilisation rate of 99%. Growth will therefore have to come from shifting the product mix from crude oil to refined oil, expanding into higher-margin products, and increasing advertising and promotional spending to raise realised value per tonne. On the next capacity expansion, management estimates investment of about 4.5 to 6.0 billion baht, with a new plant ideally having minimum capacity of about 3,000 tonnes per day, within an optimal range of 2,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day, and investment of around 1.5 to 2.0 million baht per tonne of daily capacity. However, expansion is still constrained by city planning, as the area in Nakhon Pathom province cannot expand capacity under the current city plan, so the company must wait for a new city plan. At the same time, the company is considering options to build a new plant in the central region, without yet disclosing the location, and management views demand as not a major concern and manageable. Tisco also sees a potential profit driver for TVO in 2027 from the El Nino phenomenon, as El Nino normally affects palm oil supply, which could indirectly affect demand for and prices of soybean oil. Meanwhile, risks to Brazilian soybean output could push soybean prices above 13 US dollars per bushel. Tisco maintains its buy rating on TVO using a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 times, or minus 0.5 standard deviation versus the five-year historical average. Key risks include lower-than-expected market share, weaker domestic livestock product prices, and a larger-than-expected decline in global soybean prices. Tisco expects a 2026 dividend payout of about 8%, or 2.46 baht per share, compared with a dividend of 0.90 baht per share in the first half of 2026.

November soybean futures on the CBOT closed up nearly 2% on Monday, supported by strong U.S. soybean crush volumes, higher crude oil prices, and concerns over the U.S. average yield outlook. November soybean futures rose 23.50 cents, or 1.97%, to settle at 12.1600 dollars per bushel. December corn futures rose 6.25 cents, or 1.29%, to settle at 4.8950 dollars per bushel. December wheat futures fell 0.25 cent, or 0.04%, to settle at 6.8925 dollars per bushel on profit-taking, although prolonged Black Sea export problems helped limit the downside. Data from the National Oilseed Processors Association showed its members crushed 216.647 million bushels of soybeans in July, up 1.1% from June and up 10.7% from July a year earlier. China has already purchased about 7 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans.

CBOT wheat futures closed up more than 3% on Friday, as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war raised concerns that global wheat supply will shrink. September wheat rose 22 cents, or 3.37%, to settle at 6.7475 dollars per bushel. December corn gained 11.25 cents, or 2.38%, to 4.8325 dollars per bushel, while November soybeans added 10.25 cents, or 0.86%, to 11.9250 dollars per bushel. Analysts at Blue Line Futures said traders are building a larger risk premium into wheat prices because Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, and most of those shipments move through Black Sea ports. The US Department of Agriculture also lowered its forecast for US wheat production in the WASDE report. Soybean futures were supported by news that China bought an additional 136,000 metric tons of US soybeans, and by oil prices rising more than 1% after reports of an attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

Soybean futures are posting firmer midday action with contracts up 2 to 5 cents. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price is up 4 1/2 cents at $11.45 1/4. USDA reported a private export sale of 125,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for 2026/27 shipment, and weekly export sales data showed new crop sales of 1.76 million metric tons, the second largest for the marketing year and more than triple the same week last year. USDA's Crop Production report estimated 2026 soybean yield at 52.7 bushels per acre with production at 4.519 billion bushels, 44 million bushels larger than the July WASDE projection. The monthly WASDE showed old crop ending stocks at 325 million bushels and projected 2026/27 ending stocks at 320 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from July.

Corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade surged to their highest level in two weeks on Wednesday, August 12, while soybean and wheat contracts also rose after the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for corn ending stocks for the 2026-2027 season to 1.653 billion bushels from 1.790 billion bushels, and cut its soybean yield estimate to 52.7 bushels per acre from 53.0 bushels per acre. December corn futures rose 20.25 cents, or 4.40 percent, to settle at 4.8075 dollars per bushel. September wheat futures gained 22.50 cents, or 3.57 percent, to close at 6.5275 dollars per bushel, and November soybean futures advanced 14.50 cents, or 1.24 percent, to settle at 11.8325 dollars per bushel. The market also drew support from supply disruption concerns after Ukraine sent drones to attack the port of Novorossiysk, Russia's main wheat export port on the Black Sea, forcing the two largest grain transshipment terminals to temporarily suspend operations.

Soybean futures are trading higher on Wednesday after the USDA's first official crop estimate raised production. The USDA's Crop Production report pegged 2026 soybean yield at 52.7 bushels per acre, with planted acreage raised by 1.4 million to 86.8 million acres and harvested acres at 85.8 million, lifting production to 4.519 billion bushels, 44 million bushels above the July WASDE projection. The WASDE report showed old crop ending stocks at 325 million bushels, down 5 million from last month, while projected 2026/27 ending stocks rose 10 million bushels to 320 million. USDA also reported a private export sale of 224,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for 2026/27 shipment, and Chinese state stockpiler Sinograin sold 461,000 metric tons of imported beans at $596.39 per metric ton.

Soybean futures are trading 3 to 7 cents higher Monday morning, supported by a private export sale of 238,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year reported on Friday. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price was up a penny at $11.33 ¾. Commitment of Traders data showed speculators cut their net long position in soybean futures and options by 29,535 contracts to 125,466 contracts in the week ending August 4. A Reuters survey of traders expects the USDA to peg the US soybean yield at 52.9 bushels per acre, with harvested acres seen 163,000 higher than the June report at 84.564 million acres and production at 4.472 billion bushels.

Global food prices rose in July to their highest level in more than three years, amid concerns over production volumes and key grain export routes. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported that its world food price index increased 0.6 percent from the previous month, reaching the highest since January 2023, driven mainly by higher prices for cereals, sugar, and vegetable oils. A major risk stems from the Black Sea region after attacks between Russia and Ukraine intensified, raising concerns over grain exports and helping push wheat prices to a two-year high in June. Meanwhile, Europe is facing one of its most severe drops in grain production on record due to extreme heat, and key growing areas in the United States are experiencing drought, increasing risks to corn and soybean output. Food price risks could rise further in the near term due to the prospect of an unusually strong El Niño, coupled with fertilizer supply issues and still-high energy costs.

CBOT grain futures closed higher across the board on Monday, with September wheat surging 11.75 cents, or 1.84 percent, to settle at 6.5100 dollars per bushel, driven by concerns that escalating fighting between Russia and Ukraine could disrupt exports from the Black Sea region. December corn rose 8.50 cents, or 1.83 percent, to close at 4.7250 dollars per bushel, while November soybeans added 4.75 cents, or 0.40 percent, to end at 11.9225 dollars per bushel, supported by worries over US growing conditions and news of fresh soybean export sales totaling 488,000 metric tons to China and another 136,150 metric tons to unknown destinations. However, falling crude oil prices and rains in parts of the US Midwest pressured corn and soybeans for much of the trading session.

In commodity markets on the 3rd, WTI crude oil futures plunged while NY gold futures extended their losses. NY crude oil futures for September delivery, WTI, fell $4.33 to $80.34 a barrel. NY gold futures for August delivery dropped $16.50 to $4,090.50 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, Chicago soybean futures for November delivery rose 4.75 cents to $11.9225 a bushel, and Chicago corn futures for December delivery gained 8.50 cents to $4.7250 a bushel. The Baltic Dry Index climbed 111 points to 2,843 points.

China booked at least 13 cargoes of US soybeans, or roughly 800,000 tonnes, last Friday, taking advantage of lower market prices, according to two Asia-based grain traders. The latest purchases lift China's total new-crop US soybean orders to around 5 million tonnes, signalling that China continues to step up imports to replenish stockpiles amid favourable pricing and still-strong domestic demand.

Bunge raised its full-year adjusted profit forecast after beating Wall Street estimates for second-quarter earnings, helped by strong performances in its soybean and softseed processing businesses amid improving market conditions. The company now expects 2026 adjusted earnings of $9.25 to $9.75 per share, up from its previous forecast of $9.00 to $9.50. Net sales from soybean processing and refining were $12.07 billion, compared with $7.75 billion a year ago, while the softseed processing and refining segment reported quarterly net sales of $4.09 billion, up from $1.53 billion a year earlier. U.S. corn and soybean prices have climbed sharply since the start of the Iran war, prompting farmers to step up sales of grain they had held back from last year's harvest amid a prolonged period of weak prices, spurring sales across the Midwest to major grain handlers such as Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge.

Soybean futures extended to fresh highs on Thursday, with nearby contracts settling 1 1/4 to 5 cents higher while some deferred months were fractionally lower to 4 cents lower. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price rose 4 3/4 cents to $12.04. USDA reported a private export sale of 126,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year. Weekly export sales data showed soybean bookings of 56,351 metric tons for the week ending July 16, the third lowest of the marketing year, while forward sales for 2026/27 reached 1.537 million metric tons, the second largest on record and nearly triple the same week last year. China was the top buyer of those forward sales at 1.006 million metric tons. Soymeal futures were 40 cents to $1.70 lower, but meal export sales totaled 591,179 metric tons, exceeding trade estimates. Rabobank estimated the 2026/27 Brazilian soybean crop at 178 million metric tons, down 4 million from the prior year.

Soybean and corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed higher, tracking a sharp rise in crude oil prices, while wheat futures fell on profit-taking after prices hit a two-year high. December corn futures rose 2.75 cents, or 0.57 percent, to settle at 4.8750 dollars per bushel. November soybean futures gained 4.75 cents, or 0.38 percent, to close at 12.4375 dollars per bushel. September wheat futures dropped 9.50 cents, or 1.35 percent, to end at 6.9625 dollars per bushel. Analysts at Hightower Report noted that wheat prices eased on profit-taking after being supported by escalating Black Sea tensions, as shipowners temporarily halted vessel calls at Ukrainian agricultural export ports following increased Russian attacks on ports and commercial ships. Additionally, expectations of lower wheat production provided further support after a crop tour estimated hard red spring wheat yields in southern North Dakota at 46.0 bushels per acre, down 8 percent from last year. The surge in crude oil prices lent support to soybeans and corn, as soybean oil is used to produce biodiesel, while rising Chinese import demand and concerns over a heatwave in western US corn-growing areas were additional positive factors.

In commodity markets on the 23rd, WTI crude oil futures extended sharp gains, while NY gold futures fell for the first time in three days. The September NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract settled at $92.19 per barrel, up $5.36 from the previous day. The August NYMEX gold futures contract settled at $4,050.20 per troy ounce, down $101.70. Chicago November soybean futures settled at 1,243.75 cents per bushel, up 4.75 cents, and Chicago December corn futures settled at 487.50 cents per bushel, up 2.75 cents. The Baltic Dry Index rose 10 points to 2,725.

Wheat futures on the CBOT surged to their highest level in two years after another attack on grain export ports in the Black Sea. September wheat futures rose 27.75 cents, or 4.09 percent, to settle at 7.0575 dollars per bushel. December corn futures gained 9.50 cents, or 2.00 percent, to close at 4.8475 dollars per bushel, while November soybean futures added 16.25 cents, or 1.33 percent, to end at 12.3900 dollars per bushel. Analysts at ADM Investor Services noted that wheat prices were supported by war and weather risk factors. Russia's Defense Ministry stated that Russian forces attacked port and military infrastructure in Ukraine's Odesa region, a hub handling more than 90 percent of Russia's grain and vegetable oil shipments. Additionally, a crop survey in North Dakota projected hard red spring wheat yields in the southern area at 46.0 bushels per acre, down 8 percent from last year and only slightly above the five-year average. Meanwhile, hot weather expected to return to western U.S. growing areas and the Great Plains poses a risk to corn and soybean production. Higher crude oil prices also lent support to the soybean and corn markets through demand for biofuel feedstocks, amid Middle East tensions affecting key global energy shipping routes.

Soybean futures are rebounding from Thursday's weakness, with most contracts up 6 to 8 cents at midday. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price rose 7.5 cents to $11.62 1/2. The USDA reported three sets of private export sales for new crop this morning, including 340,000 metric tons to China, 256,634 metric tons to Mexico, and 110,000 metric tons to unknown destinations. Old crop soybean sales have reached 41.324 million metric tons, matching the USDA export projection, while new crop business stands at 4.598 million metric tons. Safras & Mercado estimates the 2026/27 Brazilian soybean crop at 180.1 million metric tons, a 1.8 million metric ton increase from last year if realized.

Soybean futures are posting early Thursday gains of 3 to 5 cents, building on Wednesday's rally that saw contracts close 7½ to 11 cents higher. The National Oilseed Processors Association reported June crush at 214.34 million bushels, well above the average trade estimate of 203.99 million bushels and up 15.69% from a year ago, while soybean oil stocks fell to 1.5 billion pounds, below the expected 1.653 billion pounds. Open interest rose by 3,344 contracts, indicating modest new buying, and the cmdtyView national average cash bean price gained 8¾ cents to $11.55½. Ahead of the weekly export sales report, analysts surveyed by Reuters expect 2025/26 soybean sales between 100,000 and 500,000 metric tons for the week of July 9, with new crop bookings estimated at 0.9 to 1.7 million metric tons. The near-term weather outlook shows mostly dry conditions across the Western Corn Belt, while parts of the Eastern Corn Belt may receive 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain.

Soybean futures are showing 5 to 7 cent gains early Monday. The WASDE report released today cut 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 330 million bushels, reflecting a 10 million bushel increase in exports. New crop stocks were unchanged at 310 million bushels, as a 30 million bushel export increase offset a 40 million bushel production rise from higher acres. On the world side, new crop carryout fell 0.71 million metric tons to 124.17 million metric tons, with Brazilian exports raised by 0.5 million metric tons. Commitment of Traders data showed speculators added 37,479 contracts to their net long position in soybean futures and options in the week ending July 7, bringing the net long to 68,679 contracts.

Soybean futures closed higher on Friday, with September gaining 16 ¾ cents and rallying 55 ½ cents for the week. The USDA's WASDE report showed a 10-million-bushel drop in 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks to 330 million bushels, driven by a 10-million-bushel increase in exports. New crop stocks were steady at 310 million bushels as a 30-million-bushel export boost offset a 40-million-bushel production increase from higher acreage. World new crop carryout fell 0.71 million metric tons to 124.17 million metric tons. Speculative traders added 37,479 contracts to their net long position in soybean futures and options, bringing it to 68,679 contracts.

Soybean futures rallied Friday, with most contracts gaining 10 to 13 and a half cents at midday, after a USDA report showed tighter-than-expected US supplies. The WASDE report lowered 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 330 million bushels, reflecting a 10-million-bushel increase in exports. New crop stocks were unchanged at 310 million bushels, as a 30-million-bushel rise in exports offset a 40-million-bushel increase in production from higher acreage. World new crop carryout fell 0.71 million metric tons to 124.17 million metric tons, with Brazilian exports raised by half a million metric tons. USDA also reported a private export sale of 264,000 metric tons of 2026/27 soybeans to China.

Soybean futures surged 43 to 49 cents in the front months at midday Monday, with the cmdtyView national average cash bean price up 43 1/4 cents at $11.32 3/4. Soymeal futures gained $8.50 to $8.80, while soy oil futures rose 68 to 140 points. USDA’s FGIS reported soybean export shipments of 528,350 metric tons for the week ending July 2, up 19% from the prior week and 31.9% above the same week last year, with China as the top destination. Brazilian trade ministry data showed 14.5 million metric tons of soybeans shipped in June, well above the 13.42 million metric tons in the same month last year.

Soybean futures are trading sharply higher on Monday morning, with gains of 28 to 35 cents across front-month contracts. The rally follows a mixed close last week, when front-month losses ranged from half a cent to 5 and a half cents, and November soybeans fell 8 and a half cents. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price rose 3 and a quarter cents to 10.89 and a half dollars. USDA's weekly export sales report showed old-crop soybean sales at just 41,786 metric tons for the week ending June 25, a marketing-year low for 2025/26, while new-crop sales totaled 182,533 metric tons, a three-week low but still nearly 17 percent above the same week last year. Soybean meal sales reached 413,635 metric tons, near the high end of expectations, and bean oil saw a net cancellation of 1,517 metric tons. Brazilian trade ministry data indicated June soybean shipments of 14.5 million metric tons, well above the 13.42 million metric tons shipped in June of last year.

Soybean futures are posting 12 to 15 cent gains early Wednesday morning, building on Tuesday's advances. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price rose 7 3/4 cents to $10.70. The USDA's June Acreage report showed 85.36 million soybean acres planted, slightly above estimates and 665,000 acres higher than the March Prospective Plantings report. June 1 soybean stocks came in at 1.061 billion bushels, above the 1.049 billion bushels expected by analysts and 5.26% higher than the same period last year. Soymeal futures were steady to $2.10 higher, while soy oil futures fell 33 to 233 points, led by the front months.