Japanese Market Set to Rise on Hopes of Easing Middle East Tensions, Dollar Weakens but Yen Lacks Strength

MacroGeopoliticsDigital Finance
โดย Bloomberg·Read original
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In the Japanese market on the 27th, stocks are likely to rise on expectations of a de-escalation in the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. halted airstrikes on Iran from the night of the 24th, and Iran also announced it had suspended retaliatory operations, heightening hopes for an easing of armed confrontation. Brent crude oil futures briefly fell below $90 per barrel in early trading, and the retreat in energy supply concerns is expected to lift a broad range of stocks. Meanwhile, concerns over AI-related capital investment continue to smolder, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling more than 4% in the U.S. market on the 24th, and domestic semiconductor and AI-related stocks are expected to face heavy upside resistance. In the currency market, the dollar is weakening against a wide range of currencies on hopes of easing Middle East tensions, and the yen is also slightly firmer against the dollar. However, due to wariness over the Takashi administration's expansionary fiscal policy and fiscally subservient monetary policy, there is little aggressive buying of the yen. In a risk-on environment, carry trades that involve selling the low-yielding yen to buy high-yielding currencies are easier to execute, limiting the rise in the trade-weighted effective exchange rate of the yen. In the bond market, a retracement of last week's yield rise driven by the Middle East situation is expected, but the focus is shifting to the monetary policy outlooks of Japan and the U.S. A rate hike at the FOMC meeting on the 29th is priced in at just over 30%, while the Bank of Japan's meeting on the 31st is seen as likely to hold steady, though a rate hike by September is priced in at just under 40%. The communications from both central banks will be closely watched.

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