JPMorgan Projects $320B Tesla Robotaxi Revenue by 2035, Nearly All From Tesla-Owned Fleet

AnalystEarningsPrice Action Impact 4
โดย 24/7 Wall St.·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta circulated a note projecting Tesla robotaxi revenue of roughly $320 billion by 2035, with nearly all of it, about $314 billion, coming from a Tesla-owned and operated fleet rather than a customer-owned "Tesla Network." The framework effectively retires the long-standing pitch that individual owners would earn passive income by enrolling personal cars in a shared ride network, with owner-network contribution put at only about $5 billion of the $320 billion total. The note reframes the robotaxi opportunity as a capital-heavy mobility operator business, closer to a scaled-up Waymo than an asset-light software platform, and raises both the long-term ceiling on Tesla stock and the execution bar. Tesla reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $28.24B, up 25.5% year over year, while non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.54 consensus, Q2 operating margin compressed to 1.4%, and free cash flow swung to -$1.09B. Robotaxi service now spans seven U.S. metros with 1.48 million active FSD subscriptions, up 56% year over year, and CFO Vaibhav Taneja guided 2026 capital expenditures above $25 billion to fund fleet expansion.

Impact on stocks 3

Electrification & Mobility · 1 stocks
Tesla Inc
TSLA
▲ PositiveCapitalDemandrelevance

JPMorgan's note raises Tesla's long-term robotaxi revenue ceiling to ~$320B by 2035, though it also lifts the execution bar.

Digital Finance & Tokenization · 1 stocks
JPMorgan Chase & Co
JPM
± MixedCapitalrelevance

JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta circulated the robotaxi revenue projection, but the note concerns Tesla's outlook, not JPMorgan's own business.

Robotics & Physical AI · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 4

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