Kasikorn Securities Maintains Buy on MGC with 8.90 Baht Target, Sees Manageable Risk from Imported EV Tax

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Kasikorn Securities has maintained its "Buy" rating on Millennium Group Corporation (Asia) Public Company Limited, or MGC, with a target price of 8.90 baht, based on a 2027 target PER of 7.5 times, even though there is risk from an increase in excise tax on imported electric vehicles, which it views as manageable. This follows MGC management revealing its coping strategy at the KS Forward event on September 18. The tax measure will mainly affect the XPeng business, which accounted for 52% of the company's total dealership business in the second quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Thailand is considering a three-tier excise tax structure for EV cars, with the import tax rate under consideration at approximately 30%, up from 10%, and the Ministry of Finance expects Cabinet approval by the end of September 2026. XPeng said Thailand is a strategic market and its sixth-highest-selling overseas market since 2020. James Wu, XPeng's vice president of finance and accounting, said on August 18 that the company is assessing vehicle assembly in Thailand, but a final decision must await clarity on the tax structure. XPeng sales stood at 3,147 units in the first half of 2026 and are expected to reach 7,000 units in 2026 and 9,600 units in 2027. MGC plans to launch one to two more XPeng models in the fourth quarter of 2026 after launching the L03 SUV coupe on August 18. Recurring revenue from the dealership business, which includes after-sales service and auto loans, accounted for 17% of revenue in the second quarter of 2026.

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