Krungsri Securities says PDP26 supports BGRIM, maintains buy rating with target price of 23 baht

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โดย Kaohoon·TH·Read original
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Krungsri Securities maintains a buy rating on B.Grimm Power with a 2027 target price of 23 baht per share, following an analyst meeting that reflected progress on Thailand's new power development plan draft, or PDP26, which is currently being submitted to the energy minister for consideration. The draft is expected to open for public hearings in September and be submitted to the National Energy Policy Council between October and November 2026. The research team views the progress of the PDP26 draft as a key catalyst for the power plant sector, and it may help clarify related energy policies, including direct power purchase agreements between producers and users, third-party access to the grid, a special electricity tariff structure for data centers, and a community solar program totaling 1,500 megawatts. If these policies become clearer in the fourth quarter of 2026, they will support the investment climate and open opportunities for power plant operators to develop new projects in the future. Regarding the Nakwol 1 offshore wind farm project in South Korea, with a capacity of 365 megawatts, 33 turbines are now in commercial operation, up from 20 turbines in the second quarter of 2026, out of a total of 64 turbines. The company expects to gradually add about 10 turbines per month and complete the entire project by the end of 2026. For the Huong Hoa 1 wind power project in Vietnam, with a capacity of 48 megawatts, the target for commercial operation remains by the end of 2026. The phase 1 and phase 2 data center projects, with a combined capacity of 96 megawatts, have had their commercial operation dates slightly postponed to the first quarter of 2027 and the third quarter of 2027, respectively, from the original schedule of the fourth quarter of 2026 and the second quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, B.Grimm Power is still studying several large projects, including the Nakwol 2 offshore wind farm with a capacity of 350 megawatts, an additional 200 megawatts of data center capacity, and a 618-megawatt independent power producer project in Malaysia. These investments are expected to be carried out through joint ventures and associates during 2028 to 2029, given current capital base constraints. However, the company expects to see progress on its asset monetization plan within the fourth quarter of 2026 to increase debt capacity and support future investments. For the third quarter of 2026 outlook, the research team expects earnings to weaken due to higher pooled gas costs, which have risen to an average of about 380 baht per million BTU. However, part of the impact will be offset by the gradual recognition of Nakwol 1 operating results and gas-linked purchase contracts, which currently cover about 50 percent of all contracts, helping to maintain margins at small power producer plants. Krungsri Securities expects B.Grimm Power's normalized profit in 2027 and 2028 to increase by 22 percent and 17 percent year on year, respectively, driven by a likely decline in natural gas costs amid an oversupply of LNG, as well as the start-up of new projects including Nakwol 1 in South Korea and data centers in Thailand.

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