KSS flags safe-haven stocks as Fed rate hike lifts banks, insurers and hospitals on high bond yields

MacroAnalystPrice Action
โดย Kaohoon·USTH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Analysts at Krungsri Securities, or KSS, assess that this meeting of the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise the policy rate by 0.25% in what is being called an Insurance Rate Hike, a pre-emptive move. The market has already priced in about 92% odds of a hike this round, so the bigger driver for the market is the direction of the Dot Plot, along with inflation projections and the number of remaining rate increases ahead. KSS believes that if the Fed signals a pause to assess more economic and inflation data, the stock market could see a short-term rebound, or Relief Rally, with domestic and defensive stocks drawing more attention, especially hospitals such as Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, or BDMS, and Bangkok Chain Hospital, or BCH. If instead the Fed signals continued rate hikes beyond market expectations, that would pressure stocks with high valuations that are sensitive to bond yields, such as Delta Electronics (Thailand), or DELTA. Meanwhile, Phillip Securities (Thailand), or PST, assesses that the Thai stock market is likely to move sideways down in the short term on investors reducing risk ahead of the Fed meeting outcome, with the 2-year bond yield rising to 4.69% while the 10-year yield climbed to 5.04%, the highest levels since 2024 and 2007 respectively. As for Thai stocks that benefit from interest rates holding at a high level, the research team names the banking group: TMBThanachart Bank, or TTB, Kasikornbank, or KBANK, SCB X, or SCB, Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, or KKP, and Tisco Financial Group, or TISCO. In the insurance group: Bangkok Life Assurance, or BLA, Thai Life Insurance, or TLI, and Dhipaya Group Holdings, or TIPH.

Impact on stocks 15

Financials▲ · 8 stocks
Thai Life Insurance PCL
TLI
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

TLI is named in the insurance group benefiting from elevated rates/bond yields.

Health Care▲ · 1 stocks
Aging Population▲ · 1 stocks
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