MINT's 2Q69 profit expected to surge to 3.5 billion baht, boosted by European hotel recovery

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KGI Securities expects MINT to report a significant increase in core profit for the second quarter of 2026, rising from 145 million baht in the first quarter to 3.5 billion baht, or 3% growth from the same period last year. The performance is supported by a seasonal recovery in the European hotel business, despite the impact of Middle East conflicts. RevPAR in Europe and Thailand is forecast to grow 4% and 3% respectively, partially offsetting an expected 6% decline in RevPAR in the Maldives. Meanwhile, same-store sales growth for the food business is expected to slow to just 0.3% due to weakening demand in Australia and Singapore, and the EBITDA margin is projected to edge down to 28.2% from 28.8% in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting higher rental and labour costs. Management disclosed that the plan to inject assets into a REIT has been postponed from the fourth quarter of 2026 due to unfavourable market conditions, but the company remains committed to reducing leverage through profit growth, partial asset sales, and the potential relisting of Minor Food on the stock exchange. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, MINT had total debt of 96 billion baht and a net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.86 times. KGI Securities estimates that first-half 2026 profit will account for about 36% of its full-year profit forecast of 10.2 billion baht, representing 5.2% growth from the previous year, and expects second-half 2026 profit to strengthen both half-on-half and year-on-year, driven by strong forward bookings and continued RevPAR growth, particularly in the Maldives where a double-digit rebound is anticipated as tourism demand normalises. KGI maintains a buy rating on MINT with a target price of 28.50 baht, based on a 2026 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7 times.

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