Minor International Public Company Limited

Kasikorn Securities said the government is preparing to launch the Thai Teaw Thai Plus programme on 1 October to stimulate domestic tourism, targeting total tourism revenue of 3 trillion baht within four years. For 2026, revenue is expected to be close to the previous year at 2.7 trillion baht, with around 33 million foreign tourists, while moving towards high-value tourism and using data and artificial intelligence to upgrade marketing. The research team views this as positive for tourism, hotel, airline, airport and retail sectors, especially Airports of Thailand, Central Plaza Hotel, The Erawan Group, Minor International and Asset World Corporation, if the measures help stimulate domestic travel and spending in the fourth quarter of 2026 as expected.

Bualuang Securities and Krungsri Securities expect third-quarter 2026 net profit of listed companies to expand from the same period last year. KCE is projected to see printed circuit board delivery volumes rise, with average selling prices up 9 to 10 percent, lifting PCB revenue by 17 to 19 percent. CBG expects domestic energy drink sales to grow 10 percent and sales in Myanmar to jump 70 percent. ITC forecasts July to August sales up 10 percent from a year earlier and 7 percent from the previous quarter. In the hospital group, BH and BDMS expect July revenue to return to growth on Thai and Middle Eastern patients. The tourism and airport group, AOT and CENTEL, continues to show solid momentum, with July revenue per available room up 26 percent for AWC, 8 percent for CENTEL, 5 percent for ERW, and 4 percent for MINT. GPSC is supported by a full quarter of profit recognition from the GHECO-One and Glow IPP power plants. Krungsri Securities assesses that the electronic components group, led by KCE and HANA, is growing strongly both year on year and quarter on quarter. SCGP is expected to see profit recover on higher selling prices, strong sales volumes, and benefits from supply chain disruptions.

Bualuang Securities said second-quarter 2026 results for the tourism sector were stronger than the soft tourist arrival numbers suggested, with combined core profit rising 3% year on year to 7.76 billion baht and mostly beating expectations. For the third quarter of 2026, it expects combined core profit to still grow 3% year on year. Although the headline figure looks modest because of the large profit bases at Airports of Thailand and Minor International, which are expected to grow only 4% and 1% year on year respectively, the recovery in hotel stocks is clearer. It expects The Erawan Group to rise 28% year on year, while Asset World Corp and Central Plaza Hotel are each expected to rise 10% year on year. Leading indicators in the third quarter so far support that picture. July revenue per available room rose 26% year on year for Asset World Corp, 8% for Central Plaza Hotel, about 5% for The Erawan Group and 4% for Minor International. Asset World Corp also has booked room revenue for the second half of 2026 that is 30% higher than a year earlier, while The Erawan Group's August bookings improved from the previous month. Overseas, Maldives tourist arrivals swung from a 2% year-on-year decline in July to an 11% year-on-year increase in August, which is positive for Central Plaza Hotel, while the recovery is spreading more broadly across Northeast Asia and long-haul markets. Bualuang Securities maintained its 2026 foreign tourist arrival forecast at 31.9 million, down 3.3% year on year, after the first half of 2026 came in at 16.2 million, down 3.2% year on year. That means the second half of 2026 would need to fall about 3.3% year on year, which is still in line with the forecast. If second-half 2026 arrivals are flat year on year, there is a chance the full-year figure could be revised up to about 32.4 million, down 1.6% year on year. It kept its 2027 forecast at 34.0 million, up 6.6% year on year. The key point is that this recovery is more value-led than volume-led. Average spending per tourist rose 7% year on year in the first quarter of 2026 and 15% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 to 52,918 baht per person, helped by longer stays and a higher share of higher-spending long-haul tourists. That means tourism revenue and hotel profits have a chance to recover faster than tourist numbers alone would suggest. Bualuang Securities maintained an overweight rating on the tourism sector and selected Asset World Corp, Central Plaza Hotel and The Erawan Group, in that order. Asset World Corp stands out for its MICE booking momentum and asset injections into a REIT to recycle capital. Central Plaza Hotel is supported simultaneously by renovated Thai hotels, Maldives and Dubai hotels gradually raising occupancy, and improving food business margins. The Erawan Group is a recovery play on revenue per available room and HOP INN expansion, with potential upside from a future business separation. Airports of Thailand is not among the report's three top picks, but it has the most pronounced earnings inflection point, with 2027 core profit expected to grow 59% year on year from the full-year recognition of the passenger service charge.

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, or OR, expects third-quarter 2026 earnings to recover to normal levels after the second quarter marked the year's low point due to volatile oil prices. This caused a stock loss of about 8 to 9 billion baht and a net realizable value reserve of around 2 to 2.3 billion baht, totaling approximately 11 billion baht. Inventory levels that had been 2 to 3 days above normal have now returned to normal. The company plans to adjust its business portfolio over the next 5 to 6 years, targeting electric vehicle business at 10 percent of its Mobility portfolio. It is also accelerating expansion of its Lifestyle business by partnering with Minor International to grow four food brands, with a short-term target of 150 branches, and expects long-term EBITDA margin of no less than 15 percent. OR has also opened its first Cafe Amazon branch in Bangladesh, with an initial target of 100 outlets. As for receivables from the Oil Fuel Fund, at the end of June 2026 they stood at 14 to 16 billion baht, with the fund having already gradually repaid 7 to 8 billion baht.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that forward indicators for the hotel sector in the third quarter of 2069 remain strong compared with a year earlier, with Central Plaza Hotel having on-the-book revenue per available room up 15 percent, followed by The Erawan Group targeting revenue growth of 7 percent, and Minor International's on-the-book European hotel revenue per available room up 4 percent, with Thailand up 10 percent. July revenue per available room supports this trend, with Central Plaza Hotel Group up 13 percent and Thailand up 18 percent, The Erawan Group up 5 percent and its economy-to-luxury segment up 8 percent, with luxury up 15 percent, and Minor International's Europe up 4 percent and Thailand up 14 to 16 percent. Airports of Thailand's international passengers during the first 15 days of August were still up 2.5 percent year on year, compared with a decline of 1.7 percent year on year in July, reflecting resilient travel amid the war situation. Meanwhile, the average weekly jet fuel price for the week ending 14 August was around 159 US dollars per barrel, below the peak of 209 US dollars per barrel in April, helping ease pressure on travel costs. The research team selects stocks with company-specific support factors and laggard prices relative to the SET index, namely Central Plaza Hotel and Airports of Thailand, while Thai Airways is viewed as tactical on the assumption of lower jet fuel prices. It notes that if Brent crude exceeds 100 US dollars per barrel for several consecutive days, that would be a tactical trigger to consider reducing weightings in tourism-related stocks to limit risk.

KGI Securities (Thailand) expects OR's operating performance to recover quarter on quarter in the third quarter of 2026, because oil marketing margins and oil sales volumes are both expected to increase. Oil marketing margins are expected to rise quarter on quarter because the company's oil business is unlikely to book another large net realisable value inventory loss of 10.6 billion baht as it did in the second quarter of 2026, and oil sales volumes are expected to recover quarter on quarter as domestic fuel consumption returns to normal after falling sharply in April. OR is forming a partnership with Minor Food to transform PTT-branded service stations into food and lifestyle destinations by expanding its food and beverage business. OR will receive the right to open franchise branches of four leading restaurant brands: Dairy Queen, The Pizza Company, The Steak & More, and Chiho Ramen, a new exclusive brand developed jointly by the two companies. The launch is scheduled to begin this year, with total investment expected to be about 400 million baht and a target of 150 outlets by 2030, which will help increase customer traffic and strengthen OR's non-oil business ecosystem. OR has neither confirmed nor denied interest in the KFC business, which has been reported as being up for sale. Management said the company still needs to weigh the pros and cons of buying KFC compared with its current business model, under which about 300 to 400 KFC outlets operate inside PTT-branded service stations and OR earns rental income from them, but the company has not disclosed details about the deal. KGI Securities maintains a hold rating on OR with a first-half 2027 target price of 12.00 baht, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.5 times. Although third-quarter 2026 earnings are expected to improve quarter on quarter, the brokerage remains concerned about the company's operations in Cambodia and its strategic direction following the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia.

Bualuang Securities released analysis on JMT, MINT, BAM, KCE and MTC following analyst meetings. JMT expects cash collections in the third quarter of 2026 to recover both year on year and quarter on quarter after seeing improvement since May, supported by collections from new debt purchased in the first quarter. The research team therefore recommends buying MINT, maintaining its profit growth target of 15 to 20 percent per year during 2026 to 2028 and net debt to equity of 0.75 to 0.85 times, while keeping plans for a food IPO and asset sales. BAM still targets 2026 net profit of 2 billion baht, up 10 percent year on year, but the research team sees the slow economic recovery pressuring that target and recommends sell. KCE expects third quarter 2026 revenue to grow 13 to 15 percent quarter on quarter with a gross margin of 25 percent, with a chance for 2027 profit to exceed 2 billion baht and the share price to break above 50 baht. MTC has cut this year's loan growth target to 8 to 10 percent year on year from 10 to 15 percent previously because of stricter lending after the Middle East conflict, but the research team still recommends buy and expects third quarter 2026 net profit to reach a new high.

The board of Minor International Public Company Limited, or MINT, has approved an interim dividend for the first half of 2026 at 0.30 baht per share. The stock will be marked XD on 27 August 2026, with the record date for shareholders entitled to the dividend set for 28 August 2026, and payment on 11 September 2026. MINT shares closed the midday break at 22.90 baht, down 0.20 baht or 0.87 percent, with turnover of 214.21 million baht.

Minor International Public Company Limited, or MINT, is confident that its second-half performance will continue to grow. The hotel business has seen forward booking revenue increase in all key regions, including Europe, Thailand, the Maldives, and Australia, and the company aims to sign 50 new hotel management contracts this year, of which 30 have already been signed. Meanwhile, in the food business in Thailand, same-store sales in July 2026 grew in the mid to high single digits. The company recently announced the acquisition of intellectual property rights for the Bonchon brand covering the entire world except the Americas, with a net transaction value of approximately 50 million US dollars, or around 1.7 to 1.8 billion baht. The deal is expected to be completed within August 2026 and will immediately generate profit for Minor Food. The company maintains its long-term growth targets for 2025 to 2028, expecting revenue and net profit to grow at an average of 15 to 20 percent per year. Although 2026 faces uncertainty from the Middle East, the company remains confident that full-year performance will continue to grow, while accelerating cost control, maintaining EBITDA margin, and reducing debt. It is keeping this year's capital expenditure budget at approximately 15 billion baht.

Minor International Public Company Limited, or MINT, expects full-year 2026 revenue to grow in the high single digits, supported by its hotel and restaurant businesses. Meanwhile, annual profit growth may fall short of the 15 to 20 percent target due to the conflict situation in the Middle East. In its hotel management business, the company aims to sign around 50 contracts this year, having already signed 30 in the first half, and plans to open more than 11 new hotels in 8 countries during the second half, most of which are managed hotels. The restaurant business continues to grow, driven by same-store sales, franchise expansion, and new menu items, with key markets of interest including Thailand, Southeast Asia, and Indonesia. The company is also moving forward with cost management to keep its EBITDA margin from falling below last year's level, and expects growth to resume in 2027.

Minor International, or MINT, announced the acquisition of a 100% stake in Bonchon International for a net transaction value of 50 million US dollars, or approximately 1.65 billion baht, through its subsidiary MFG International Holding in Singapore. The deal is expected to be completed by August 2026 and will be financed with debt. As a result, MINT becomes the owner of the intellectual property of the Bonchon fried chicken brand outside the Americas and can directly collect royalty income and franchise fees worldwide, except in the Americas. Bonchon currently has around 500 locations outside the Americas in Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Bualuang Securities estimates that this deal is an asset-light model that will immediately add around 100 million baht per year to MINT's net profit, or about 1% of 2027 profit, with further upside from expanding to 700 to 1,000 locations in the medium to long term. Previously, MINT invested 70% in Spoonful in 2020 to become the sole franchise operator of Bonchon in Thailand. This acquisition therefore elevates MINT from master franchisee to a full global brand owner.

Minor Food, a subsidiary of MINT, together with Serruya Private Equity, has signed an agreement to acquire Bonchon International, a global Korean food franchise brand, from the existing shareholders VIG Partners and Mr. Seo & Family. The transaction is expected to be immediately earnings-accretive for Minor Food, thanks to a business model focused on royalty fees and low capital investment, aligning with the company's asset-light strategy. Bonchon has approximately 500 restaurants across nine key markets outside South Korea and is known for its double-fried chicken with signature sauces. Minor Food, which already holds the master franchise rights in Thailand, will become the owner of the Bonchon brand and business worldwide outside the Americas, while SPE will oversee the business in the Americas. The two parties have a business relationship spanning over 30 years and are ready to drive new store expansion in existing and new markets, as well as leverage Bonchon's sauce manufacturing facility to generate strong long-term revenue and profit.

Minor International and Central Plaza Hotel reported strong first-half results, with net profit rising significantly compared to the same period last year. MINT posted a net profit of 4.215 billion baht, up 62 percent from a year earlier, while CENTEL recorded a net profit of 1.256 billion baht, up 48 percent. Both companies were supported by the recovery of the tourism sector and an increase in foreign tourist arrivals.

Dillip Rajakarier, Group CEO of Minor International, or MINT, reported core profit of 3.658 billion baht, an increase of 6%, driven by hotel businesses in Europe and Thailand, where profit surged 32% and RevPAR in Thailand grew 11%, reflecting tourism purchasing power. The company is also partnering with OR to expand four brands at PTT petrol stations, targeting more than 150 branches by 2030, and is confident in continued growth in the second half, pursuing an asset-light strategy while reducing debt.

Land and Houses Securities assesses that the retail sector faces short-term challenges, with CPAXT's second-quarter profit falling 18 percent year-on-year despite higher total revenue, as selling and administrative expenses rose from accelerated branch expansion and Lotus's same-store sales declined nearly 4 percent due to indirect impacts from the Thai Helps Thai Plus scheme. Analysts expect the retail and wholesale sector to recover in the fourth quarter, which is the high season, and may get support from short-term stimulus measures such as increasing the state welfare card limit, which will benefit TNP. BJC is expected to see profit recovery in the second half, supported by its packaging business. Meanwhile, the tourism sector is viewed as the most attractive for long-term investment, as the government prepares concrete tourism stimulus measures in the fourth quarter, with recommended stocks including ERW, CENTEL, and MINT. The finance sector is a laggard with earnings poised to surge, with SAWAD expected to post quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter and stand out in the second half, while MTC is worth accumulating as its price has not risen much.

Krungsri Securities has issued a research note on MINT with a buy recommendation and a target price of 31.50 baht, expecting normalized profit in the second half to recover from the first half, which was impacted by war and domestic hotels. The research team maintains its full-year 2026 normalized profit forecast at 10.552 billion baht, up 9% year-on-year, and projects 2027 at 11.039 billion baht, up 5% year-on-year. It also expects MINT to pay a first-half dividend of 0.28 baht per share and a full-year 2026 dividend of 0.88 baht per share, implying dividend yields of 1% and 3.8% respectively. Meanwhile, second-quarter 2026 normalized profit came in at 3.513 billion baht, up 3% year-on-year and 2,343% quarter-on-quarter, roughly in line with expectations, driven by growth in the hotel and restaurant businesses.

Minor International expects operating results in the second half of 2026 to improve, with the hotel business continuing to grow and forward bookings in key markets higher than the previous year. In the first half, the company posted a net profit of 3.96 billion baht, up 13 percent from the same period last year. Core operating profit stood at 3.66 billion baht, up 6 percent, with the hotel business delivering a net profit of 2.58 billion baht, up 32 percent, and the food business posting a core profit of 1.28 billion baht, up 3 percent. The company is also pressing ahead with an asset-light expansion, opening seven new hotels and signing more than 20 new hotel agreements, while targeting more than 50 new hotel signings within this year. It is also partnering with PTT Oil and Retail Business to expand food brand branches at PTT service stations, aiming to open more than 150 outlets by 2030.

Several brokers have summarized their top fundamental stock picks. Maybank Securities notes that SAPPE is expected to deliver the strongest profit growth in its sector at 16% in 2027, compared to the sector average of 9.4%, while its 2027 price-to-earnings ratio is only 12.2 times, the lowest in the group. CGS International reports that MINT's core earnings per share for the second quarter of 2026 rose 6% year-on-year and 1,282% quarter-on-quarter to 0.55 baht per share. BCP reported a strong net profit of 12.24 billion baht for the second quarter of 2026, exceeding estimates by 60%, driven by robust market gross refining margins and the start of sustainable aviation fuel production, which added approximately 1.0 billion baht to EBITDA. For TIDLOR, Finansia Syrus Securities expects a second-quarter 2026 profit of 1.49 billion baht, down 8% quarter-on-quarter but up 15% year-on-year, while DBS Vickers Securities forecasts a net profit of 1.48 billion baht, up 14.4% year-on-year but down 8.1% quarter-on-quarter, with full-year 2026 net profit projected to expand by 19.2%. As for PTT, Krungsri Securities expects normalized profit to surge 225% year-on-year and 80% quarter-on-quarter, better than previously estimated, thanks to the gas separation plant and the refining and petrochemical businesses.

CGS International Securities Thailand estimates the SET index frame today at 1,600 to 1,620 points, noting that weaker-than-expected US employment data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, supporting risk assets. However, recovering oil prices due to uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are a drag. The firm recommends MINT and BCP. MINT's core earnings per share for the second quarter of 2026 rose 6 percent year-on-year and 1,282 percent quarter-on-quarter to 0.55 baht per share, driven by better-than-expected performance in its food business. BCP reported a net profit of 12.239 billion baht for the second quarter of 2026, 60 percent above estimates, thanks to lower-than-expected stock losses, strong market gross refining margins, and the start of sustainable aviation fuel production, which added around 1.0 billion baht to EBITDA.

OR reported sales and service revenue for the second quarter of 2026 of 205.667 billion baht, up 16.8% from the previous quarter, driven by Café Amazon which achieved record sales of 117 million cups, an increase of 4.5%. EBITDA stood at 53 million baht, down 99.3% from the prior quarter, pressured by energy demand and volatile oil prices. For the first half of 2026, total revenue reached 381.793 billion baht, up 9.2% from the same period last year, but EBITDA fell 35.2% to 7.153 billion baht. On the expansion front, OR signed an agreement with The Minor Food Group Public Company Limited to expand four restaurant brands at service stations, opened the world's first Café Amazon Experience in the Ari area, and continued investing in EV Station PluZ and pipeline transportation through TPN.

The Ministry of Tourism is preparing to propose to the Cabinet by the end of August 2026 for approval of the Thai Tour Thai Plus project, requesting a budget of 2.45 billion baht from the emergency loan decree. It aims to stimulate the economy during the low season and generate over 56 billion baht in circulation. If approved, the public can start using the benefits from late 2026, including accommodation discounts of up to 3,000 baht, digital coupons, and airfare discounts, alongside measures to attract foreign tourists. Analysts assess that this project will be positive for tourism, hotel, and domestic airline stocks, namely CENTEL, ERW, MINT, AWC, AOT, BA, and AAV.

KGI Securities expects the combined core profit of five hotel operators in the second quarter of 2026 to reach 3.85 billion baht, up 1.5 percent from a year earlier and up 46.8 percent from the previous quarter. Minor International will be the main driver, supported by its European hotel business entering the high season. Central Plaza Hotel is forecast to post the strongest profit growth at 15 percent year-on-year, followed by Asset World Corporation and The Erawan Group at 11 percent and 10 percent respectively. S Hotels and Resorts is expected to swing to a core loss. The research team maintains an overweight stance on the hotel sector and has raised target prices by 6 to 13 percent, selecting ERW and CENTEL as top picks with target prices of 4.30 baht and 48.00 baht respectively.

Pi Securities notes that Bloomberg Consensus has raised its earnings forecasts for Thai listed companies to over 100 baht per share this year and 105 baht per share next year, reflecting that the market is starting to see a better earnings trend for Thai companies than previously expected. If earnings meet estimates and foreign capital inflows continue, the SET Index has a chance to move up and test the 1,650-point area, and if it breaks through, the next target assessed by many analysts around 1,700 points remains possible. With a more relaxed overall picture, Pi Securities still favors stocks benefiting from lower oil prices and the domestic economic recovery, especially MINT, CENTEL, as well as fundamentally strong stocks like ADVANC, which still have support from earnings performance and continued investment flows rotating into quality stocks.

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, or OR, has signed a cooperation agreement with Minor Food to expand four restaurant brands — The Pizza Company, Dairy Queen, The Steak & More, and Chiho Ramen — within the PTT Station network and OR's commercial spaces. The target is to open more than 150 branches by 2030. This partnership is part of the strategy to accelerate the non-oil business, aiming to enhance asset value from over 2,400 PTT Stations nationwide and elevate service stations into full-fledged lifestyle hubs or food destinations. OR has also established Foodellus Company Limited as the core entity to drive its food business, with an investment plan of over 2 billion baht by 2030 to make the food business one of its future growth engines.

The Minister of Tourism and Sports has assigned policies to the Tourism Authority of Thailand board to drive the tourism industry under the concept of Tourism for All, Tourism for the Future, preparing to move forward with three key projects during the high season. These are the Thai Travels Thailand Plus, or Co-pay, project to stimulate domestic travel; the Fly Thai All the Feelings project, partnering with six domestic airlines to offer ticket discounts to Thai citizens for 400,000 seats; and the Thailand Air Connect project, collaborating with airlines and partners to increase frequency and seat capacity on both charter and commercial flights. In addition, the government aims to elevate Thailand into a valuable and sustainable destination, promoting travel to secondary cities and 55 target communities, and pushing for the country to become a global event hub by hosting the Tomorrowland Thailand music festival from 11 to 13 December 2026 in Chonburi province, which is expected to attract no fewer than 150,000 attendees and generate total economic value of up to 6.132 billion baht. Kasikorn Securities, or KS, assesses that these measures are a positive factor for tourism-related stocks, including AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL, ERW, MINT, and AWC, as well as retail operators in tourist cities, viewing that travel and spending have an opportunity to recover in the second half of the year.

KGI Securities expects MINT to report a significant increase in core profit for the second quarter of 2026, rising from 145 million baht in the first quarter to 3.5 billion baht, or 3% growth from the same period last year. The performance is supported by a seasonal recovery in the European hotel business, despite the impact of Middle East conflicts. RevPAR in Europe and Thailand is forecast to grow 4% and 3% respectively, partially offsetting an expected 6% decline in RevPAR in the Maldives. Meanwhile, same-store sales growth for the food business is expected to slow to just 0.3% due to weakening demand in Australia and Singapore, and the EBITDA margin is projected to edge down to 28.2% from 28.8% in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting higher rental and labour costs. Management disclosed that the plan to inject assets into a REIT has been postponed from the fourth quarter of 2026 due to unfavourable market conditions, but the company remains committed to reducing leverage through profit growth, partial asset sales, and the potential relisting of Minor Food on the stock exchange. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, MINT had total debt of 96 billion baht and a net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.86 times. KGI Securities estimates that first-half 2026 profit will account for about 36% of its full-year profit forecast of 10.2 billion baht, representing 5.2% growth from the previous year, and expects second-half 2026 profit to strengthen both half-on-half and year-on-year, driven by strong forward bookings and continued RevPAR growth, particularly in the Maldives where a double-digit rebound is anticipated as tourism demand normalises. KGI maintains a buy rating on MINT with a target price of 28.50 baht, based on a 2026 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7 times.

The Thai stock market fell today, pressured by DELTA which dragged the index down by more than 20 points after its second-quarter 2026 earnings came in below expectations, weighing on electronics component stocks that declined in sympathy. In the afternoon, there was also selling to reduce risk ahead of the long holiday amid ongoing uncertainty over the Middle East situation. Meanwhile, there was speculative buying in stocks expected to post earnings growth, such as MINT and BJC. For Thursday, if there are no further severe events, the index has a chance to rebound, with support at 1,620 points and resistance at 1,640 points.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand index closed on July 27 at 1,624.47 points, down 19.92 points or 1.21 percent, with total trading value of 88.48 billion baht. Selling pressure on DELTA was the main factor dragging the index by more than 20 points, after the company reported second-quarter 2026 earnings below market expectations, triggering negative sentiment toward electronics component stocks which declined in tandem. In the afternoon, there was also selling to reduce risk ahead of the long holiday, amid concerns over the Middle East situation which, although easing, remains uncertain. Foreign investors were net sellers of 1.66 billion baht and funds were net sellers of 2.48 billion baht, while there was speculative buying in stocks expected to report earnings growth, such as MINT and BJC. For the outlook on Thursday, July 30, 2026, analysts at Yuanta Securities Thailand recommend monitoring the Middle East situation, with support seen at 1,620 points and resistance at 1,640 points.

The Thai stock market closed the morning session at 1,632.48 points, down 11.91 points or 0.72%, with trading value of 53.83 billion baht. The main pressure came from DELTA shares, which fell 5.86% after reporting lower-than-expected second-quarter profit, dragging the SET index down by as much as 17.73 points. Meanwhile, buying interest in BBL, AOT, KBANK, and MINT helped cushion the index. Dao Securities Thailand assessed the afternoon trend, expecting the index to fluctuate in a narrow range with a downward bias, setting support at 1,626 to 1,629 points and resistance at 1,636 to 1,638 points.

AWC shares rose 8.95% to 2.92 baht, up 0.24 baht, leading the tourism sector after InnovestX Securities raised its 2026 foreign tourist arrival estimate from 31 million to 33 million. Foreign tourist arrivals from January 1 to July 18, 2026, stood at 17.4 million, down 3.1% year-on-year, and are expected to return to year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2026, driven by high-season demand, global events, and government measures. The research team raised normalized earnings estimates for hotel stocks, with ERW seeing the largest upgrade at 15%, followed by AWC at 11%, CENTEL at 7%, and MINT at 1%, based on their revenue exposure to Thai hotels. ERW is seen as best positioned due to its high share of revenue from Thailand and a strong domestic guest base, while CENTEL is expected to post the strongest profit growth in 2027, supported by a new hotel in the Maldives and a recovery at its joint-venture hotel in Dubai.

The SET index opened the morning session down 11 points, bucking the regional trend, with selling in DELTA shares as the main drag after its second-quarter 2026 earnings came in below expectations. Selling in oil stocks such as PTTEP also weighed, after global oil prices fell on a temporary easing of Middle East tensions. However, funds rotated into tourism stocks including AOT and MINT. At 9.59 a.m., the SET index stood at 1,633.33 points, down 11.06 points or 0.67 percent, with resistance at 1,650 points and support at 1,620 points.

Thailand's hotel business in the second half of 2026 is supported by business travel and global events hosted by the country, expected to attract over 300,000 high-quality travelers, driving occupancy rates and revenue per available room to grow continuously. Analysts at Kasikorn Securities revealed that although foreign tourist arrivals in April fell 7.0% year-on-year, the average daily room rate rose 6.1% to 1,947 baht, resulting in revenue per available room of 1,411 baht, up 4.2%, and May is expected to recover with a 4.0% increase in tourist numbers. Key events such as Gastech, the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings, Thailand MICE Week, and Tomorrowland Thailand will be positive factors for hotel operators, especially AWC, ERW, CENTEL, and MINT, as well as airport and airline businesses. The research team maintains a buy recommendation on AWC with a target price of 3.55 baht, and on ERW.

Google Cloud has announced its commitment to supporting Thai organizations in accelerating their transition to the Agentic AI era, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and develop more personalized user experiences. Mr. Suraj Tipsena, the new Country Manager of Google Cloud Thailand, unveiled the vision under the concept of shifting from Cloud First to AI Ready, presenting a comprehensive AI Stack and the Gemini Enterprise platform to help reduce complexity from fragmented system integrations and precisely manage AI usage costs. Additionally, Google Cloud shared case studies of Thai enterprises that have adopted Cloud and AI, including Minor Hotels, which developed an AI-driven hotel platform; Bitazza, which reduced financial statement preparation time by 75% from about one year to approximately three months using BigQuery; and Wisesight, which used Gemini to analyze social media data, cutting work time from two days to around 30 minutes. At the same time, Google Cloud also launched Google AI Threat Defense, an automated security system that combines the capabilities of Wiz, CodeMender, Gemini, and Mandiant to continuously counter AI-driven threats.

CGS International Securities Thailand forecasts that net profits of Thai listed companies in the second quarter of 2026, covering 127 firms or 86.7 percent of market capitalization, will total 276 billion baht, a decline of 10.5 percent from the same period last year and down 5.3 percent from the previous quarter. The main drag came from the energy sector due to weaker refining margins, and the transport sector which was hit by the low season for airlines. Meanwhile, petrochemicals, electronics, ICT, and tourism were key supports for the market. Energy sector profits are expected to fall 26.6 percent year-on-year and 11.3 percent quarter-on-quarter. Transport sector profits are seen dropping 72.1 percent year-on-year and 74.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, weighed by weaker results at AAV and THAI. Petrochemical profits are forecast to surge 326.4 percent from a low base last year, led by IVL and PTTGC. Electronics profits are expected to grow 89 percent, and ICT profits to rise 26 percent, helped by easing competition and improved ARPU at ADVANC and TRUE. Tourism benefited from the European travel season for MINT. Stocks expected to show outstanding profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter include IVL, PSL, and BGRIM. Stocks with accelerating profit momentum from the previous quarter include MINT, SC, and 3BBIF. The stocks forecast to grow the most year-on-year are BGRIM, up 7,305.8 percent, IVL up 982.9 percent, PSL up 771.9 percent, SPRC up 666.8 percent, and AMATA up 599.1 percent, mostly driven by low profit bases last year and industry recovery. In terms of quarter-on-quarter momentum, the stocks expected to see the biggest profit increases are MINT, up 452 percent, SC up 441.7 percent, IVL up 263.3 percent, PSL up 169 percent, and PTTEP up 121.2 percent, supported by seasonal factors, a recovery in the hotel business, property transfers, and improved sales volumes and margins in energy and petrochemicals. CGSI has also selected top picks under its Quality and Earnings Momentum strategy, focusing on stocks with profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, Outperform recommendations, and low volatility. These include PTTEP, MINT, SC, BAREIT, TVO, IVL, TNP, ZEN, BANPUU, and PR9.

Prime Minister Anutin's visit to China is bolstering investment and tourism confidence. The Tourism Authority of Thailand is partnering with Sichuan Airlines, Meituan, and several Chinese allies to increase flights, enhance safety, and market to quality tourists. The target for Chinese tourists in 2026 has been adjusted to 5.13 million, generating revenue of approximately 288 billion baht. Research views this as positive for tourism and aviation stocks such as AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL, ERW, MINT, and AWC, given the continued recovery in flights and Chinese tourist arrivals.

Phillip Securities expects the Thai stock index to trade sideways in a range of 1,640 to 1,665 points, pressured by a 2026 forward P/E of 16.7 times, close to the average since 2020 of 17.1 times, and banking stocks may face sell-on-fact pressure after earnings announcements. However, the TISA project measures will help prevent the index from falling deeply, and a rotation of funds out of banking stocks into real sector stocks is expected for speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings, which are anticipated to be strong. The investment strategy is divided into four main themes: speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings in stocks such as AMATA, CPALL, DELTA, HANA, ITC, KCE, MRDIY, MTC, OSP, QH, SAWAD, SCC, STECON, and TIDLOR; energy stocks in BCP, PTT, PTTEP, SPRC, and TOP; speculation on government measures or projects in BJC, CENTEL, CK, CPAXT, CRC, DOHOME, ERW, GLOBAL, HMPRO, LH, MINT, and SCC; and hopes for investment inflows from China in ADVANC, GUNKUL, GULF, ROJNA, WHA, and WHAUP.

OR and Minor Food have signed a partnership agreement to expand four restaurant brands across the PTT Station network and OR's commercial spaces nationwide, targeting more than 150 outlets by 2030. The brands included in the expansion are The Pizza Company, Dairy Queen, The Steak & More, and Chiho Ramen, a new brand developed by Minor Food specifically for this collaboration. OR's food business operates under Food Delight Company Limited, which aims to invest over 2 billion baht by 2030 to drive the food business as a key long-term pillar of its lifestyle segment. Mr. Kraipit Premmanee, Executive Vice President of Lifestyle Business at OR, stated that this partnership will help elevate over 2,400 PTT Stations into Food and Lifestyle Destinations catering to all consumer groups. Meanwhile, Mr. William Heinecke, Chairman of Minor International Public Company Limited, sees this as creating a new growth platform for the Thai food business by combining the strengths of both organizations.

Kasikorn Securities notes that the Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported that from January 1 to July 18, 2026, Thailand welcomed a cumulative 17.36 million foreign tourists, generating revenue of 839 billion baht. Although this is still down 3.05 percent compared to the same period last year, the top five source markets were China, Malaysia, India, Russia, and South Korea. Meanwhile, in the latest week, tourist numbers rose 4.04 percent from the previous week, supported by school holidays, increased flights, and a recovery in the Taiwan market. The research team views this as positive for tourism and airport stocks such as Airports of Thailand, Asia Aviation, Bangkok Airways, Central Plaza Hotel, Erawan Group, Minor International, and Asset World Corporation, given the gradual recovery in tourist numbers expected in the second half of the year, even though cumulative arrivals remain slightly below last year's level.