Morgan Stanley Lifts Tesla Bull-Case Target to $840 on Semi Truck FSD Potential

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Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco raised his bull-case price target for Tesla from $820 to $840 while keeping an equal-weight rating and a $400 base-case target, with shares trading around $357. The update highlights the Tesla Semi truck, where Morgan Stanley sees a scenario of more than 80,000 autonomous Semi trucks on the road by 2040, each generating as much as $18,000 a month in full self-driving revenue, for more than $17 billion in high-margin FSD revenue by 2040. Visible Alpha consensus calls for Semi units to rise from 4,000 in 2027 to 12,000 in 2028 as production ramps up, helped by a lower cost per mile than a typical diesel truck, as shown in a pilot with PepsiCo. On the last earnings call, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said the total number of Tesla Semi units is still low and will remain a very small percentage, and that developing FSD for the Semi is taking a bit of a backseat for the next six months, though it will definitely be working next year and in time for the scale-up to high production. Morgan Stanley maintains an equal-weight rating on the stock, and the Semi is not a near-term earnings driver but one to pencil in for long-term growth.

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