National Healthcare Properties raises 2026 SHOP outlook after Q2 FFO rises

Healthpeak Properties raised its full-year 2026 guidance for the second time this year, now expecting diluted earnings per share of $0.48 to $0.52, up from $0.46 to $0.50, and diluted FFO as Adjusted of $1.73 to $1.77, two cents higher at the midpoint than its prior outlook. The healthcare real estate owner signed 1.6 million square feet of new and renewal leases in the quarter, lifting outpatient medical occupancy 20 basis points to 90.7% and lab occupancy 80 basis points to 78.5%. Growth was led by Janus Living, the senior housing operator Healthpeak controls with a 73.6% stake, where revenue jumped 45% year over year to $216 million and Adjusted EBITDA rose 34% to $79 million, with same-store margins expanding 250 basis points. Healthpeak funded buybacks and debt paydown largely by selling stakes in existing buildings, including July's recapitalization that sold a 49% stake in an 86-property outpatient medical portfolio to Brookfield for roughly $1.025 billion at a 5.9% cap rate, part of $1.4 billion of proceeds generated in the quarter and through August 3. Lab same-store net operating income fell 3.2%, the only one of Healthpeak's three core businesses to shrink, holding total company-wide same-store NOI growth to 1.8%.

CareTrust REIT announced on September 15 that it closed a $400 million skilled nursing portfolio in the Southwest effective September 1, a deal covering 2,622 licensed beds triple net leased back to the existing operator and sourced off-market through a joint venture that committed roughly $380 million of CareTrust's own capital. The transaction extends a buying spree that has pushed the company's 2026 investment total past $1.9 billion, including about $710 million closed in the third quarter and $899.6 million in the second quarter at an 8.9% yield. The new portfolio is expected to generate a stabilized yield of about 8.6%, in line with the 8.7% blended yield across two dozen deals closed so far in 2026, and management says the $600 million pipeline of near-term actionable deals, about half aimed at the senior housing operating portfolio, excludes larger transactions still being pursued. CareTrust ended the second quarter on June 30, 2026, with net debt to annualized normalized EBITDA of 1.01x, and as of the September announcement had $725 million available under its revolver plus $612 million of remaining ATM capacity, backing guidance raised on August 6 to full year 2026 normalized FFO of $2.03 to $2.06 per share, up 16.2% at the midpoint over 2025. The growth has come at a cost to existing shareholders, with diluted weighted average shares outstanding rising from about 192.9 million in the second quarter of 2025 to 234.2 million a year later and $439 million of expected net proceeds still sitting in unsettled forward equity contracts as of September 15, while the second quarter also carried a $4.7 million provision for loan losses and interest expense rose to $15.3 million from $13.0 million a year earlier.

Welltower posted its 15th consecutive quarter of net operating income growth above 20% while Ventas doubled its investment target to $4.5 billion, as two million people turn 80 in 2026 against record-low new senior housing starts. Ventas raised full-year 2026 guidance to Normalized FFO per share of $3.85 to $3.90, an 8% to 10% increase, and lifted its investment target to $4.5B from $3B, focused on senior housing, after SHOP same-store cash NOI grew 16.3% year over year. Welltower, the largest of the three at a roughly $169.7 billion market cap, grew SHO same-store NOI 20.5% with occupancy at 89.4%, raised 2026 guidance to $6.36 to $6.44 per diluted share, and declared a quarterly dividend of 85 cents, a 15% increase and its 221st consecutive quarterly dividend. Omega Healthcare, a triple-net skilled nursing landlord with an emerging RIDEA segment, raised full-year 2026 AFFO guidance to $3.22 to $3.26 per diluted share and lifted its quarterly dividend by a penny to 68 cents, though tenant Genesis Healthcare has been in Chapter 11 since July 2025 with $148.5 million in loans outstanding. Ventas and Welltower capture net operating income directly through RIDEA-structured senior housing operating portfolios, while Omega takes tenant credit and reimbursement risk instead of operating risk.