Pie Securities says rate-cut cycle is over, sees bank loan growth of 2.5-3% in 2026

MacroAnalyst
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Summary · why it matters

Thanadech Rangsithananon, Senior Director of Securities Analysis at Pie Securities Public Company Limited, said the interest-rate downcycle has ended, and rates are likely to head higher or hold steady from here, tracking global interest rates and inflation. Bond yields are trending upward, raising the cost for the private sector to raise funds through the debt market, prompting some large companies to turn to commercial bank loans instead. The combined loan portfolio of the seven commercial banks is expected to grow 2.5-3% in 2026 from a year earlier. However, the group's net profit in 2026 is still likely to be flat to slightly negative, pressured by net interest margins that remain affected by domestic policy rate cuts: two in 2025 and one in 2026, five in total, cutting the rate by 1.25% overall from 2.25% to 1% at present, before accelerating to 3-4% in 2027. On investment strategy, Thanadech recommends gradually accumulating stocks with strong fundamentals and remaining upside, namely KBANK and KKP, as well as large banks that stand to benefit from rising rates, such as KTB, BBL and SCB.

Impact on stocks 5

Financials▲ · 3 stocks
Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 2 stocks
Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Recommended as a large bank that stands to benefit from rising rates as the rate-cut cycle ends.

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