DraftKings IncPrediction markets may get tax advantage over sportsbooks, potentially diverting bettors away from DraftKings.

Americans using prediction markets to bet on the World Cup may face a lighter tax burden than those wagering through sportsbooks because the bets are structured as investments. The key question is whether payouts from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket US are treated as gambling income or as proceeds from financial instruments, which would allow full deduction of losses and potentially a lower tax rate. Supporters argue that traders buy and sell standardized event contracts cleared through financial market infrastructure, while critics say the underlying economics are the same as gambling. The IRS has not issued guidance, leaving bettors to navigate the uncertainty themselves. Some tax experts say prediction market payouts clearly fall under gambling rules, but others advocate treating them as capital gains or even applying a special derivatives tax regime under Section 1256 of the tax code.
DraftKings IncPrediction markets may get tax advantage over sportsbooks, potentially diverting bettors away from DraftKings.
Meta Platforms Inc.Potential tax edge for prediction market bets could boost Kalshi's platform usage.
Potential tax edge for prediction market bets could boost Polymarket's platform usage.