Prediction Markets Brace for NFL and Midterm Election Supercycle

IndustryRegulationDigital Finance
โดย CNBC·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Prediction markets are entering their biggest fall yet as the NFL season and the midterm election campaign converge for the first time, a combination platforms are betting will drive further mainstream adoption. Daily notional trading volume is now consistently in the billions, with two dominant incumbents and a host of smaller exchanges chasing market share. Kalshi posted a record $2.3 billion in volume traded on Saturday, the first day of college football, while Polymarket debuted an advertisement featuring LeBron James, Eli Manning and Derek Jeter and unveiled a new product for its U.S. exchange. Rothera, a joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood, saw volumes boom after going live in time for the FIFA World Cup, and ProphetX co-founder and CEO Dean Sisun said its revenue doubled from June to August and he would love to see it grow four to five times by year-end on a run-rate basis. Both Polymarket and Kalshi suffered glitches as college football play began, with Polymarket's U.S. platform down much of Saturday and refunding accounts that took losses, while Kalshi prematurely resolved a University of Michigan market before correcting the result and paying out accordingly. The platforms are leaning into sports even as they battle in court with states that argue sports-related event contracts amount to gambling and should fall under state rather than Commodity Futures Trading Commission purview.

Impact on stocks 1

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 1 stocks
Robinhood Markets Inc
HOOD
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Robinhood's joint venture Rothera saw volumes boom after going live in time for the FIFA World Cup, driving prediction-market activity.

Theme Impact 1

Off-coverage companies 5

KalshiPrivate▲ Positive
DemandRegulationrelevance

Kalshi posted a record $2.3 billion in volume traded on the first day of college football, a concrete demand surge.

PolymarketPrivate▲ Positive
DemandRegulationrelevance

Polymarket debuted a LeBron James ad and a new U.S. exchange product amid record prediction-market volumes.

RotheraPrivate▲ Positive
Demandrelevance

Rothera, the Susquehanna-Robinhood JV, saw trading volumes boom after its launch, benefiting from the prediction-market supercycle.

ProphetXPrivate▲ Positive
Demandrelevance

ProphetX's revenue doubled from June to August, with the CEO targeting four-to-five-times growth by year-end as prediction-market volumes boom.

Susquehanna International GroupPrivate▲ Positive
Demandrelevance

Susquehanna's joint venture Rothera with Robinhood saw volumes boom, benefiting the firm through its prediction-market exposure.

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