Raymond James cuts airline estimates on higher fuel, upgrades Allegiant

AnalystAnalyst
โดย Investing.com·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Raymond James lowered estimates across its airline coverage universe, citing a higher jet fuel price forecast, while upgrading Allegiant Travel to Strong Buy from Outperform. The broker raised its jet fuel price forecast for the second half of 2026, 2027 and 2028 by roughly 18%, 14% and 7%, respectively, with Gulf Coast jet fuel prices up 39% quarter-to-date through August 19. Analyst Savanthi Syth said the higher fuel forecast primarily reflects elevated refining margin assumptions rather than crude prices, and pointed to Allegiant's greater quarter-to-date share pullback despite a constructive backdrop excluding fuel. U.S. TSA throughput has run about 2.6% lower year-over-year quarter-to-date versus a 1.1% decline in scheduled seats, while Raymond James raised its fourth-quarter U.S. domestic capacity growth forecast to 2.3% from 1.5% in early August. In Europe, intra-Europe seat capacity is up about 5% year-over-year over the summer, and Syth expects a favorable supply inflection heading into winter as fuel-hedge rolloffs and earnings pressure prompt capacity discipline at Ryanair, easyJet, AF-KLM, IAG and Lufthansa.

Impact on stocks 8

Industrials± Mixed · 6 stocks
Allegiant Travel Company
ALGT
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

Upgraded to Strong Buy by Raymond James, citing share pullback and constructive backdrop excluding fuel.

Air France-KLM SA
AF
▼ NegativeSupplyrelevance

Higher fuel costs raise costs, but capacity discipline may offset; net negative.

EasyJet PLC
EZJ
± MixedSupplyrelevance

Mentioned as part of European capacity discipline expected from fuel-hedge rolloffs and earnings pressure.

Deutsche Lufthansa AG
LHA
± MixedSupplyrelevance

Mentioned as part of European capacity discipline expected from fuel-hedge rolloffs and earnings pressure.

Ryanair Holdings plc
RY4C
± MixedSupplyrelevance

Mentioned as part of European capacity discipline expected from fuel-hedge rolloffs and earnings pressure.

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