RBC's Calvasina Sees S&P 500 at 8150 in 12 Months After Dip to 7000

โดย Yahoo Finance·

Summary · why it matters

RBC Capital Markets' head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, laid out a twelve-month S&P 500 target of 8150 on CNBC's Fast Money, while warning the market likely has to chew through a stretch of "indigestion" that could take the index down toward 7000 first. The 8150 figure is a twelve-month rolling target built from five models ranging from roughly 8043 at the low end to around 8350 at the high end, with 8150 as the median; her least constructive valuation and earnings model takes consensus earnings for the second quarter of 2027 on a trailing four-quarter basis and laps 10% off the top, and even with inputs of 3% CPI, two additional hikes and a 10-year yield of 4.75%, it still points to 8043. Calvasina anchors the pullback expectation in interim equity drawdowns delivered by past Fed hiking cycles, framing a garden-variety correction as the neutral expectation. The growth backdrop shows real GDP growth at 1.5% annualized in the second quarter of 2026, down from 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, core PCE at 130.658 as of July 2026, and the Fed moving the target rate back up to 4.00% on September 21 from 3.75%. SPY's heaviest holdings are NVIDIA at 7.58%, Apple at 6.66% and Microsoft at 4.91%, and with the 10Y-2Y spread narrowed to 0.20% on September 21 and the VIX at 14.81 on September 18, the entry into any correction could be sharp.