Macro & Economy

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivered her first general debate speech since taking office on the evening of the 22nd at the UN General Assembly in New York, emphasizing that Japan "consistently supports" the International Criminal Court, which the Trump administration is increasingly pressuring. The Prime Minister expressed her intention to "contribute to the maintenance and development of a free and open international order based on the rule of law," while avoiding any mention of the US administration's sanctions on ICC President Tomoko Akane. Citing Japan's efforts in light of the worsening international situation, she listed three points: strengthening supply chains, enhancing cooperation for peace and stability, and maintaining and developing the international order. She introduced that Japan is formulating economic and energy cooperation plans for Gulf states in the Middle East, and, with China in mind, pointed out that "concerns over arbitrary export restrictions are growing."

The U.S. M2 money supply grew roughly 5.4% year over year in July, the fastest pace since June 2022, a development some economists view as an ominous sign with inflation running at 3.4%. August inflation came in 3.4% higher year over year on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Consumer Price Index, while core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.4%. The acceleration in M2 growth could stem from the Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening last December and effectively restarting quantitative easing through what it calls reserve management purchases, as well as from rising asset and stock prices and growth in bank lending. The Fed's own views on M2 have differed: current Chair Kevin Warsh told Congress that had the Fed paid closer attention to M2 during the pandemic it might have seen the high inflation coming, while former Chair Jerome Powell said five years ago that M2 does not really have important implications for the economic outlook. Between May 2020 and March 2021, M2 grew at least 20% annually each month, reaching nearly 27% in one month during that window.

FTSE Russell officially announced the upgrade of the Vietnamese stock market from Frontier Market to Secondary Emerging Market on September 21, 2026, after Vietnam continued to push forward with capital market reforms, including easing pre-funding restrictions and improving market access for foreign institutional investors. This upgrade brings Vietnamese stocks into FTSE Russell's global indices such as the FTSE Emerging and FTSE All-World. FTSE Russell will gradually increase the weight of Vietnamese stocks in the indices through 2027, with 10% in September 2026, 20% in March 2027, and 35% in June 2027 and September 2027 respectively. Reuters estimates that the upgrade of Vietnam's market status could attract as much as approximately 6 billion US dollars into the market. Meanwhile, during September 14-18, 2026, foreign investors returned as net buyers of Vietnamese stocks to the tune of about 104 million US dollars, even though the overall picture since the start of the year remains net selling. The next goal is an upgrade to the MSCI Emerging Market index, for which Vietnam still needs further reforms, particularly regarding restrictions on the Foreign Ownership Limit and Free Float. Tisco Securities sees entry into the FTSE Emerging Market as the beginning of structural fund flows, and in the short term index funds investing in Vietnamese stocks are likely to benefit directly, especially the stocks that FTSE Russell preliminarily announced would be added to the FTSE Emerging Index, namely VCB, VIC, VHM, BID and VPB. Among the funds recommended by Tisco Securities is the Principal Vietnam Equity Accumulation Fund, PRINCIPAL VNEI-A.

Advertised pay in the most AI-exposed US occupations has climbed roughly 46% since the start of 2021, compared with 25% for the least-exposed jobs, according to an Indeed Hiring Lab report published last week. The divergence is sharpest in software, where the entry-level share of job postings in AI-exposed occupations fell from 29% to 10% between 2021 and 2026 while the senior share rose from 22% to 47%, and senior advertised pay in exposed roles is up 45% since 2021 versus 28% for less-exposed senior work. Indeed's economists estimate a post-ChatGPT advertised-pay premium of around 5.7% for AI-exposed jobs, falling to roughly 2.4% after controlling for seniority, suggesting most of the premium reflects experience directing AI systems. Indeed's CEO warned Fortune that the market is stuck in a vicious cycle in which employers refuse to train juniors who could become the seniors they will later bid up, and RAND economist Carter Price has flagged the fiscal risk given that roughly two-thirds of federal revenue comes from wages and salaries. The broader labor market shows no distress signals, with unemployment at 4.1% in August 2026, initial jobless claims at 196,000 for the week ending September 12, job openings at 7.27 million in July, and average hourly earnings of $37.75 in August 2026, while information-sector value added reached $1.79 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, or 5.6% of GDP, up from 5.3% in 2022.

RBC Capital Markets' head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, laid out a twelve-month S&P 500 target of 8150 on CNBC's Fast Money, while warning the market likely has to chew through a stretch of "indigestion" that could take the index down toward 7000 first. The 8150 figure is a twelve-month rolling target built from five models ranging from roughly 8043 at the low end to around 8350 at the high end, with 8150 as the median; her least constructive valuation and earnings model takes consensus earnings for the second quarter of 2027 on a trailing four-quarter basis and laps 10% off the top, and even with inputs of 3% CPI, two additional hikes and a 10-year yield of 4.75%, it still points to 8043. Calvasina anchors the pullback expectation in interim equity drawdowns delivered by past Fed hiking cycles, framing a garden-variety correction as the neutral expectation. The growth backdrop shows real GDP growth at 1.5% annualized in the second quarter of 2026, down from 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, core PCE at 130.658 as of July 2026, and the Fed moving the target rate back up to 4.00% on September 21 from 3.75%. SPY's heaviest holdings are NVIDIA at 7.58%, Apple at 6.66% and Microsoft at 4.91%, and with the 10Y-2Y spread narrowed to 0.20% on September 21 and the VIX at 14.81 on September 18, the entry into any correction could be sharp.

US households now hold a record share of their net worth in stocks, with corporate equities accounting for 39.9% of household net worth, the largest share in Federal Reserve records. Owners' equity in residential real estate fell to 19.3% in the same quarter, leaving a gap of 20.6 percentage points between the two measures, according to the Fed's quarterly Financial Accounts report cited by the Kobeissi Letter. Households held $185.65 trillion in net worth over the period, of which directly and indirectly held corporate equities accounted for $74.03 trillion, while owners' equity in residential real estate, calculated by subtracting mortgage debt from home values, totaled $35.81 trillion. Equity exposure has climbed 12.6 percentage points since the third quarter of 2022, while the housing share lost 3.5 points over the same stretch, a reversal from the third quarter of 2005 when real estate exposure peaked at 24.1%, one point above equities. Market returns explain most of the shift, with the Nasdaq Composite closing at a record 27,122.09 on September 21, a gain of 16.7% for the year, and the S&P 500 finishing the same session at 7,764.70, up 13.4% in 2026, while the Case-Shiller national home price index rose just 1.5% in the year through June against 3.5% inflation. Forecasts for the rest of the year for the S&P 500 range from 7,400 to 8,100, with Bank of America holding the lowest target at 7,400, implying a decline of roughly 4.7% from Monday's close, and the next Financial Accounts release in December will show whether the third quarter widened the gap further.

The Federal Reserve's first rate hike in three years, lifting its target range to 3.75%-4.00%, is forcing commercial real estate into refinancing at sharply higher costs, according to a U.S. Bank note dated September 16, 2026. Jeff Sica, chief executive of Circled Square Alternative Investments, described the fallout as a "primal scream from commercial real estate," warning that the gap between a 4% loan and a 7% loan adds roughly $600,000 a year in extra interest on a single commercial building. Sica said higher debt service costs will push landlords to raise rents, hitting apartment dwellers and small business tenants first, and warned of "a tremendous series of unintended consequences" that could create inflation "that people didn't even know existed." Commercial mortgages price off the long end of the curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.96% and the 30-year at 5.29% on September 21, 2026, up from 4.79% on the 10-year on September 1, according to Globest. The trillion-dollar refinancing figure cited in the headline came from the publication's editor's characterization of the segment and did not appear in Sica's quoted remarks.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecasts Texas employment will grow just 1.2% in 2026, a sharp deceleration from the state's long-run average of 2%. The bank projects the state will add roughly 173,600 jobs this year, pushing total employment past 14.5 million by December, with an 80% confidence band of 0.8% to 1.6%. Dallas Fed senior business economist Luis Torres attributed the slowdown to labor supply constraints rather than weaker demand, noting year-to-date job growth of just 1.0% even after August added 18,500 jobs at an annualized 1.6% pace. August gains were led by professional and business services, construction, government, manufacturing and leisure and hospitality, while oil and gas employment was flat and other services and information posted losses. The next Dallas Fed employment update is due Oct. 16.

The European Central Bank on the 22nd published an economic report stating that the European Union's share of global goods exports is declining as Chinese companies strengthen their competitiveness in high-value-added and high-tech products. The trend is pronounced in machinery and transport equipment, and within the EU, German companies are suffering the biggest blow. China is gaining ground in markets where export-oriented European companies have long held a strong presence, and as its domestic production expands, its imports of European goods are also falling. According to the ECB, among major EU countries, Germany's export mix is similar to China's, while Italy's is less so, and the impact on smaller member economies such as Ireland and Greece is limited. The report said the findings show intensifying competition in sectors such as automobiles and industrial machinery that have driven the European economy for decades. It analysed that the decline in exports to China is most pronounced in regions integrated into the value chains of Europe's manufacturing and automotive industries, such as Germany and Central Europe.

New York Fed President Williams on the 22nd defended the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework while indicating that adjustments and fine-tuning are possible in response to changes in financial markets. In prepared opening remarks for a conference on the U.S. Treasury market held at the New York Fed, Williams said the current set of tools for managing short-term interest rates and supplying the financial system with "ample" reserve balances has "proven to be highly effective in managing interest rates and supporting the smooth functioning of core financial markets." Williams did not address the outlook for monetary policy or interest rates in his remarks, and he is not scheduled to take questions after speaking at the conference. Williams noted that while the Fed's interest rate framework has worked well, it is not fixed and can be adapted to changes in market conditions, saying, "As markets evolve over time, we must ensure that our policy tools remain appropriate for fulfilling the functions we need." He also said that under Chair Warsh, the Fed has established multiple task forces to broadly examine its approach to communication, how it evaluates data, and how it handles its still-large balance sheet, adding, "There should be little or no opportunity cost to holding reserves at a central bank."

The flash reading of the eurozone consumer confidence index for September, released by the European Union's statistics agency on the 22nd, came in at minus 16.5, worsening from minus 15.5 the previous month. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast minus 16.0, and the actual result fell short of that. The consumer confidence index for the EU as a whole came in at minus 15.8, down 0.8 points from the previous month.

AutoZone reported mixed fiscal Q4 results this morning, with earnings of $56.05 per share beating the Zacks consensus of $54.54 by 2.77% while revenues of $6.59 billion fell 1.38% short of estimates, sending the stock up 3% ahead of the opening bell. Thor Industries also posted a mixed Q4 report in the opposite direction, as earnings of $0.78 per share missed the Zacks consensus by 16.13% but revenues of $2.31 billion beat projections by 7.37%, though down from $2.52 billion a year ago, leaving shares flat but down 30% year to date. KB Home, a Zacks Rank #5 Strong Sell company, is set to report Q3 earnings after the closing bell, with earnings growth of -45.34% and revenue growth of -20.3% expected, and shares down 15% year to date. Pre-market indexes were mixed, with the Dow up 180 points, the Nasdaq down 27 points, the S&P 500 down 2 points, and the Russell 2000 up 12 points, while the 10-year bond yield stood at 4.93% and the 2-year at 4.73%, and oil traded at $93 per barrel on WTI and $98 on Brent. Thursday is expected to be the busiest day of the trading week, with Chinese President Xi Jinping visiting President Trump in Washington DC and Costco reporting Q4 earnings after the close.

New Zealand fresh-produce supplier Speirs Foods has been placed into voluntary administration, with Jessica Kellow and Iain Shephard of BDO Wellington appointed as joint and several administrators. The appointment, confirmed by majority owner Speirs Group, covers both Speirs Foods and Speirs Foods General Partner Ltd. with immediate effect. The Marton-based business, which produces and distributes fresh foods, mainly salads, to supermarkets and foodservice customers across New Zealand, has traded for more than 50 years and employs up to 60 staff. The move follows a 16 September request by the company's directors for the secured lender to appoint a receiver, and after discussions with the lender and legal counsel the directors resolved to enter voluntary administration; managing director Craig Tucker stepped down from his role the day before the BDO appointment. Speirs Foods said annual sales volumes had continued to decline, with the fall increasing over the past year as supermarket customers were no longer purchasing the same volumes of salads, and it cited sustained margin pressure across the fresh food manufacturing sector from significant increases in labour, raw material, packaging, freight, energy and other input costs, exacerbated by recent inflationary impacts associated with international instability, including the Iranian war. For the six months ended 31 December, the company reported revenue of NZ$6.51m compared to NZ$7.58m a year earlier, with a total loss attributable to owners and non-controlling interests of NZ$474,000 against a loss of NZ$527,000 in the previous year, while for the year ended 30 June 2025 revenue increased 1.2% to NZ$16.31m and the total loss narrowed by 74.8% to NZ$227,000.

U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq notching its first record close since June 2 as a tech rally and falling Treasury yields lifted all three major indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, or 366.19 points, to 52,048.83, the S&P 500 gained 1.5% to 7,764.70, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 2.3% to 27,122.09. The rally was led by a 12% surge in Intel Corporation's stock, while Advanced Micro Devices shares jumped 10% as the chipmaker's market cap hit $1 trillion. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped below the 5% level after days, and U.S. crude prices fell 4,5% to settle at $95.78 per barrel, an 11-day low, after topping $100 last week amid escalating Middle East tensions. The moves follow a volatile week in which the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the first time in over three years, and no major economic data was released on Monday.

U.S. apartment landlords are facing more than $1.8 trillion in debt coming due over the next decade, with nearly $300 billion maturing this year alone, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data cited by WSJ. About $757 billion of those loans mature from 2026 through 2028, including another $223 billion in 2027, and landlords are now refinancing at roughly twice the rates available five years ago. Apartment mortgage rates fell to around 3% in 2020 and 2021, fueling investment and a construction boom across the Sunbelt in markets including Phoenix, Denver, Atlanta and Austin, and some landlords are now selling at losses, returning buildings to lenders or restructuring their balance sheets. Bain Capital real estate head Ryan Cotton said lenders have gotten a lot more aggressive as distress appears, while TruAmerica Multifamily Investments CEO Bob Hart told WSJ one of his properties would need refinancing from 3.5% to about 6% and that he was considering selling rather than making a large additional payment. Blackstone defaulted in June on a $90 million loan tied to a Northern Dallas apartment building, multifamily loan delinquency in commercial mortgage-backed securities reached 7.1%, and apartment values fell about 3.5% in the past month and remain more than 20% below their 2022 peak. Distressed-property buyers are becoming more active, with Cityview buying directly from lenders that have taken control of properties and getting roughly a 40% discount on a newly renovated Dallas-area apartment complex that was foreclosed on.

At least 16 trucking, delivery and transportation companies entered bankruptcy proceedings between late August and Sept. 21, according to federal court filings and carrier records reviewed by FreightWaves. The filings include Chapter 11 cases involving Globemaster Incorporated, Xoco Transport, Jett Transport & Materials, CLJ Transporting, Mill Creek Logistics-Illinois, RP Hay Hauling, Truckload LLC and Pacer Transport, while several smaller carriers filed Chapter 7 cases that typically involve liquidation rather than reorganization. Among the largest, Hidalgo, Texas-based Xoco Transport filed for Chapter 11 on Sept. 16 with more than 40 tractors, 65 drivers and 70 trailers, and Bolingbrook, Illinois-based Globemaster filed on Sept. 15 reporting assets of between $500,000 and $1 million against liabilities of $1 million to $10 million. Pacer Transport, based in Arnaudville, Louisiana, filed Sept. 4 with less than $50,000 in assets and between $1 million and $10 million in liabilities, one of the widest asset-to-liability disparities among the recent filings. The geographically widespread cases come as carriers continue navigating a freight environment marked by rising diesel fuel prices and other elevated operating costs, with financial pressure surfacing across general freight, last-mile, agricultural and specialized trucking.

Fort Smart Service Public Company Limited, or FSMART, expects to benefit from the Cabinet's extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program by another 2 months, from October 1 to November 30, 2026, with a total limit of no more than 1,000 baht, which will help boost the purchasing power of the grassroots customer group that forms the core customer base of its Boonterm top-up machine business. Managing Director Narongsak Lertsapthawee disclosed that the operating performance trend in the third quarter of 2026 remains steady compared with the previous quarter and the same period last year, and is considered the lowest point of the year, due to the impact of the rainy season, flooding in many areas, and rising oil prices, which pressured purchasing power. The fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to improve in line with seasonal factors as the Boonterm machines enter their high season. The company is also preparing to launch new services, namely the sale of National Savings Fund lottery tickets, which is awaiting an official launch date from the government, and cross-border money transfers to serve the migrant worker group, expected to begin service in early November, while still awaiting license approval from the Bank of Thailand. The company is maintaining its full-year total revenue growth target of 8-10% from last year, with the Boonterm machine business accounting for approximately 70-75% of revenue, while the lending business is expected to grow the most prominently this year, from a current accumulated loan portfolio of approximately 1.7 to 1.8 billion baht, with a target to expand the portfolio to 2 billion baht by year-end. As for the Gingka EV business, or electric vehicle chargers, the number of charging heads has expanded from approximately 500-600 at the start of the year to approximately 700-800 currently, with a target of 1,000 charging heads by the end of this year. As for the Taobin automated coffee machine business, in which FSMART holds a 26% stake and recognizes its share of profits, there are currently more than 8,000 machines in service, with a target to expand to 10,000 machines.

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to address the United Nations General Assembly, or UNGA, today, September 22, at about 9:45 a.m. US time, or 8:45 p.m. Thailand time. He will speak after Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Mike Waltz, the US ambassador and permanent representative to the United Nations, said the speech will focus on how Trump and his administration confront complex global problems directly, unlike previous administrations that put things off. Trump will discuss ensuring Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons and will report progress on a peace plan for the Gaza Strip. He is also expected to back the development of artificial intelligence, or AI, so that the United States keeps its global leadership, and to touch on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, and reform of the United Nations. Trump is also expected to meet leaders from several countries on the sidelines of the UNGA, including British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and leaders from various countries in the Persian Gulf region.

JPMorgan has abandoned its baseline forecast for oil prices, with head of commodities strategy Natasha Kaneva telling clients in a Sept. 17 note that "we simply don't know how to model the endgame" of the Iran conflict. The bank had forecast in mid-July that Brent crude would average $86 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, assuming no long-lasting damage to energy production. JPMorgan said three economic redlines it believed the Trump administration would not cross have now been breached: $100 per barrel of crude, a national average gasoline price near $5 per gallon, and a 10-year Treasury yield near 5%. As of Monday afternoon, Brent traded at $95 per barrel, the national average gasoline price stood at $4.48 per gallon according to AAA, and 10-year Treasury yields were about to breach 5% for the first time under Trump. Kaneva, writing with analysts Lyuba Savinova and Artem Fakhretdinov, also flagged a "more concerning" spike in diesel, which hit $6.51 per gallon on Monday, far above its previous $5 record set in June 2022, as Republican lawmakers push President Donald Trump to ban diesel exports. JPMorgan now sees September fair value for Brent at $90, warning there is no shortage of risk for the market to price.

The TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, or TISCO ESU, has raised its forecast for Thailand's economic growth in 2026 to 2.1%, up from its previous estimate of around 1.8%, supported by oil prices that have not risen as much as feared and by hopes for government economic stimulus measures. However, Methas Rattanasorn, head of economic research at TISCO ESU, sees Thailand's economy slowing in the fourth quarter to growth of just 1.2%, the lowest level of the year, partly due to the high base in the same quarter a year earlier. The overall picture for 2027 still carries the risk of continued slowdown unless the government accelerates budget disbursement, increases the size of stimulus funds, and attracts foreign investment. On global market investment, Komson Prapanpol, head of the TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, assesses that the yield on 10-year US government bonds has passed its peak and will hold steady at 5% through the end of the year. If the bond yield holds at that level, the S&P 500 still has slight upside and could end 2026 at around 7,800 to 8,000 points. He also assesses that the risk of an AI bubble remains significantly lower than during the 2000 dot-com crisis and the 2008 subprime crisis. Meanwhile, Thanathat Srisawat, head of investment strategy, recommends that investors increase their weighting in commodity assets to 5% to 15% to reduce overall portfolio risk and increase the chance of generating returns, particularly oil futures or oil ETFs such as USO, as well as copper and agricultural products. He also advises avoiding global bond indices weighted by debt burden, which could increase holdings of bonds from countries with high fiscal risk.

Oil and gas private equity deal count fell 60% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 to just 16 deals, worth $3.4 billion, as investor confidence was hit amid ongoing price volatility. Of those deals, just three were new platform buyouts, according to PitchBook's Q2 2026 Oil & Gas Report, with the rest secondary buyouts, tuck-ins or carveouts as firms managed existing holdings rather than deploying fresh capital. The largest deal was CPP Investments' $1.2 billion growth investment in Texas-based gas and LNG platform Caturus, while Paris-headquartered Antin Infrastructure Partners took the third-largest spot with its $164.5 million acquisition of Texas-based Sapphire Gas Solutions, bought from Apollo funds through Flagship Fund V. The $39 billion in M&A deal value marked a 20.3% QoQ drop, though on an annualised basis 2026 deal value is tracking 10% ahead of 2025, and the three largest M&A transactions of the quarter all involved companies headquartered in Calgary, Alberta: Shell's $16.4 billion purchase of ARC Resources, GFL Environmental's $4.6 billion acquisition of Secure Energy Services, and Keyera's $3.9 billion buy of Plains Midstream Canada. The report also noted that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has drawn OECD government oil inventories down by 163 million barrels to their lowest level since 1990, while the UAE ended its OPEC and OPEC+ membership on May 1 and a widening Red Sea conflict threatens the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline.