SCB EIC: AI Supercycle Not Over, but Bubble Risk Looms; Thailand Poised to Benefit in Supply Chain

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โดย InfoQuest·TH·Read original
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SCB EIC, the economic and business research center, stated that the AI supercycle is not yet over, but the next phase of growth faces higher risks, particularly the risk of an AI bubble. Meanwhile, investment by US hyperscalers is expected to grow at an average of 48% per year, reaching around $1 trillion by 2027. However, AI is entering a transition phase towards revenue generation, and Middle East conflicts could increase energy and raw material costs in the semiconductor supply chain. AI growth is extending the global electronics industry cycle, but benefits are concentrated in AI-related sectors, with exports of AI goods in HS categories 84 and 85 accelerating to 35.6% and 11.5% per year, while general goods have slowed, reflecting a K-shaped recovery. Taiwan still dominates advanced chips with a 90% global share, while China is constrained by trade barriers. ASEAN is emerging as a new production base, with Malaysia's IC exports growing 13% per year, followed by Vietnam at 9%, Singapore at 8%, and Thailand at 8%. Thailand's computer exports are valued at $22.6 billion in 2025. SCB EIC recommends Thailand upgrade to higher value-added segments such as PCBs, advanced components, and data center equipment, while accelerating R&D and developing infrastructure and a skilled workforce to seize opportunities in the AI supply chain.

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