South Korea's Aging Population Threatens AI Boom Benefits

Macro

โดย Fortune·

Summary · why it matters

South Korea, home to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the world's two largest memory chip makers, is a major AI boom winner, with the KOSPI up nearly 60% this year and chip workers receiving bonuses around $400,000. However, a Goldman Sachs report warns that this wealth may not reach ordinary households, as retail sales remain near 2019 levels despite surging exports and factory investment. Goldman attributes this to a 'K-shaped cycle' where corporate balance sheets thrive but private consumption stays soft, driven by South Korea's rapidly aging population. With a fertility rate of 0.8 births per woman and 20% of the population over 65, the country faces a shrinking workforce and a rising dependency ratio projected to increase by 1.5 percentage points annually over the next decade, the fastest among 70 economies analyzed. Unlike retirees in Japan, Taiwan, and the U.S., older Koreans save more than any other age group, retaining 37% of income in their sixties, and over 60% of household net worth is tied up in real estate, leaving them asset-rich but cash-poor. Goldman's models suggest aging could shave up to 25 basis points from annual consumption growth over the next decade, potentially turning consumption growth negative even with 2% economic growth. While the government offers marriage and newborn grants, Goldman suggests more immediate solutions like helping elderly unlock housing wealth and better distributing tech windfalls.