SpaceX Could Lose Half Its Value Over the Next Year, Analyst Warns

Rocket Lab Corporation successfully launched its 96th Electron mission, delivering the 12th StriX satellite for synthetic aperture radar company Synspective into an exact 572km low Earth orbit. The 'Owl By The Dozen' mission lifted off from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand at 3:22pm NZST on September 19, 2026, marking Rocket Lab's 17th launch of 2026 and extending its 100% mission success record across its multi-year launch partnership with Synspective. Electron's Kick Stage placed the satellite with pinpoint accuracy, maximizing on-orbit lifetime and supporting immediate integration into Synspective's Earth-monitoring constellation. Rocket Lab has 15 additional dedicated Electron missions manifested through the end of the decade to complete Synspective's commercial SAR constellation. With 17 launches completed so far in 2026, Electron continues to lead the global commercial small-lift sector in frequency and reliability.

Firefly Aerospace Inc. was awarded a Spacecraft Processing Operations Contract from NASA on August 17, a multiple-award contract that also includes All Points Logistics, Blue Origin, and L3Harris Technologies and carries a total ceiling value of $100 million with an ordering period extending through February 2033. The contract positions Firefly to compete for task orders providing payload processing facilities and services for NASA missions launching from Vandenberg Space Force Base. "Reliable access to space depends on more than rockets — it depends on the infrastructure that gets payloads ready to fly," said Adam Oakes, Vice President of Launch at Firefly Aerospace. Two days later, on August 19, Firefly announced it is onboarding Zeno Power to its upcoming Blue Ghost lunar mission to demonstrate radioisotope technologies designed to survive the lunar night. On September 9, Firefly signed a multi-launch agreement with SSC Space for two Alpha rocket launches from Sweden's Esrange Space Center.

NASA has awarded SpaceX a $946 million contract for three additional astronaut missions to the International Space Station, extending the company's crewed flights to the orbiting laboratory through 2030. The award brings SpaceX's total NASA astronaut missions under the contract to 17 and raises its total value to $5.92 billion. The contract covers astronaut and spacecraft preparations, launches, in-space mission operations, crew returns and capsule recovery, and also includes transporting supplies and keeping the spacecraft at the station as an emergency escape vehicle. NASA selected SpaceX and Boeing in 2014 to develop spacecraft capable of carrying astronauts to the station, and SpaceX's role has grown after Boeing's Starliner encountered problems during its 2024 crewed test flight, which returned the capsule without its crew while astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams came home aboard SpaceX's Crew Dragon after their planned 10-day mission stretched beyond nine months. NASA said it wants both companies operating crew flights so a technical problem or accident involving one provider does not interrupt US access to the station.