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Stock issuance to fund Bitcoin purchase causes dilution, with share count up 25.9% YoY, and stock down 30% in past month.
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Bitcoin's Bull Market Is Cooling, Watch US Demand Slowdown and Altcoin Selling Pressure
In a weekly report published on September 16, CryptoQuant assessed the current Bitcoin market as a "cooling bull market." After its recent rally, Bitcoin entered a range of $76,000 to $82,000 and is now trading near the lower end of that band, while its bullish score index fell from 80 during the uptrend to 60. Weakness in US investor demand is also clear: the Coinbase Premium has slipped back into negative territory as Bitcoin corrects from around $80,000, and a recovery in spot demand is seen as essential for a sustained advance. Ethereum exchange inflows surged in late August and around September 10, briefly reaching 1.6 million to 1.7 million ETH, while altcoin exchange inflow transactions hit 56,000 on September 8, the highest level in about nine months. Bitcoin exchange inflows, by contrast, have been calm; they briefly rose to about 53,000 BTC when prices climbed to $82,000 but have since declined, indicating that large-scale selling is not continuing. The key price level ahead is around $70,000, where the 200-day moving average sits; a break below that would bring $62,000 to $65,000 into focus as the next major support.
Kevin O'Leary Buys Crypto Again, Gold Comparison Points to $760K Bitcoin
Kevin O'Leary has started buying new crypto positions ahead of what he believes will be the market's next cycle, and his comparison between Bitcoin and institutional gold allocations has produced an eye-watering potential price. Speaking at the Avalanche Summit in New York, O'Leary told The Block he is "back in the saddle buying new positions, putting my bets on for this next cycle," though he did not identify the assets or disclose the value of the positions. He said Bitcoin could eventually represent between 1% and 3% of the capital institutions allocate to alternative assets, drawing a comparison with gold, and Forbes calculated that such a scenario could value Bitcoin between $253,000 and $760,000. The upper estimate would give Bitcoin a market capitalization of roughly $15 trillion, while the lower figure would produce a valuation close to $5 trillion; with Bitcoin recently trading near $80,000, reaching $253,000 would require an increase of approximately 216%, and a move to $760,000 would represent an advance of about 850%. The $760,000 figure is considerably higher than O'Leary's actual public forecast of $150,000 to $200,000 in April, which hinged on the CLARITY Act establishing a clearer regulatory framework, a catalyst removed after the Senate rejected the bill's motion to proceed. O'Leary also said in an April interview with Fox Business that investors could capture approximately 97% of the crypto market's volatility by holding Bitcoin and Ethereum, and that he had reduced a portfolio that once spanned 27 crypto positions primarily to BTC and Ethereum alongside the USDC stablecoin.
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JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Could Outperform Gold as Hedges Unwind
JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said Bitcoin could receive more support than gold if investors begin unwinding defensive positions around Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, according to a Wednesday note. The analysts said Bitcoin investors remain more heavily hedged than gold investors, leaving room for the cryptocurrency to benefit disproportionately if that caution fades. Gold ETFs have already recovered all of their earlier 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have recovered only about half, and short interest in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, or IBIT, remains near its highest level this year, while short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF is below its historical average. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $450.4 million in net outflows on Sept. 15 and another $295.9 million on Sept. 16, before reversing to $159.5 million of inflows on Sept. 17, with IBIT alone bringing in $183.7 million that day. The call comes despite a difficult backdrop: on Sept. 15 the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, falling short of the 60 votes needed for cloture, and a day later the Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, its first increase since 2023.