MicroStrategy IncorporatedMSTR
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Article highlights bearish outlook due to dilution from at-the-market equity issuance, high debt, and risk of MSCI delisting.
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JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Could Outperform Gold as ETF Hedges Unwind
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said Bitcoin could receive stronger price support than gold if hedging activity tied to exchange-traded funds declines. According to the bank, gold ETFs have already recovered the outflows seen since the start of 2026, while Bitcoin ETFs have recouped only about half of their outflows, and demand for Bitcoin ETFs has weakened recently, meaning Bitcoin has more room to recover than gold if conditions improve. Behind this is renewed attention on currency debasement trades after the Federal Reserve's meeting in late July, but that trade has lost momentum over the past week, weighed down by rising real interest rates and the lack of progress in the U.S. Senate on the crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act. Short interest in the ETFs differs sharply: short interest in BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, is near its highest level of 2026, while short interest in the gold ETF SPDR Gold Shares is below its historical average. For IBIT, the ratio of put option open interest to call option open interest is also higher than for GLD, and JPMorgan analysts concluded that under the current market structure, where IBIT has more short interest than GLD, an unwind of positions could support Bitcoin more than gold if hedging demand declines.
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Bitcoin Rallies to Two-Week High Above $80,000 as Altcoins Outperform
Bitcoin rallied to a two-week high on Friday, climbing back above the psychologically important $80,000 level, with the broader crypto market joining the advance. According to Bitget Wallet research analyst Lacie Zhang, US spot ETF inflows and short covering helped push it through the psychologically important $80,000 level. The surge came despite a Fed rate hike earlier in the week and the failure of the Clarity Act, legislation that would have created a federal framework for the broader digital asset industry; after the measure failed to advance in the Senate, the Securities and Exchange Commission stepped in on Thursday with a conditional exemption allowing the trading of certain tokenized stocks on blockchains for the next five years. While bitcoin led the move, ether, binance and solana have outperformed over the past month, gaining 35%, 25% and 41% respectively, and rotation into alternative tokens and tokenized versions of Nvidia, Tesla and the S&P 500 helped lift the total crypto market capitalization to $2.66 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. Fundstrat's Sean Farrell said crypto has absorbed a fairly aggressive hawkish repricing without much damage, while Compass Point's Ed Engel last week upgraded Coinbase to Neutral from Sell, citing that BTC is recovering from a cyclical bottom.
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Corporate Bitcoin Buying Plunges to About 5,900 BTC in Past Three Months, Glassnode Says
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reported on September 16 that net Bitcoin purchases by listed companies amounted to only about 5,900 BTC over the past three months, roughly 69.5 billion yen. Compared with the roughly 89,000 BTC, or about 1.048 trillion yen, recorded in July 2025, that is about one-fifteenth of the level. The average acquisition price for listed companies stands at about 80,500 dollars, roughly 6 percent above the market price at the time of the survey, leaving these companies as a whole sitting on unrealized losses. Behind the slowdown in buying are the decline in Bitcoin's price and tightening financial conditions, as core inflation in the United States has fallen to 2.4 percent while the policy rate holds at 3.75 percent, pushing real interest rates higher. New demand from sources other than companies has also weakened: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about 334 million dollars between September 8 and 14, while the stablecoin supply was roughly 301 billion dollars, flat from the previous week. Strategy, one of the world's largest Bitcoin holders, is shifting its focus from an all-out buying strategy to management that emphasizes capital efficiency, and Glassnode noted that the corporate average acquisition price of 80,500 dollars could serve as near-term resistance on the upside.