Strategy's Weak Point: Risk of Running Out of Working Capital More Than Bitcoin Drop

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โดย Cointelegraph·US·Read original
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A recent analysis from Regime Intelligence indicates that Strategy's Bitcoin reserves may be more vulnerable to a prolonged loss of access to capital markets than to a drop in cryptocurrency prices. The company faces the risk of being unable to meet annual obligations of approximately $1.76 billion without selling Bitcoin, according to Cointelegraph. Strategy's hoard of 840,447 BTC backs debt and preferred stock claims worth around $22 billion, meaning its Bitcoin accumulation model depends on continuous refinancing. Stress tests show that Bitcoin would need to fall by about 96% before holdings and reserves become insufficient, but the risk lies in annual dividend and interest payments regardless of Bitcoin's price. Report author Sherif Saad said the main challenge is keeping the engine running, and investors should monitor preferred stock prices and cash reserves, which currently cover about 2.6 times annual expenses. If financial conditions worsen, the strategy could reverse and rely more on selling Bitcoin. The company has sold Bitcoin four times since May, including a recent sale of 1,690 BTC to fund dividends, share buybacks, and dollar reserves. However, CEO Phong Le said the company has accumulated about 25 times more Bitcoin than it has sold and plans to resume purchases later this year.

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