Thai Oil Public Company LimitedThai Oil expects crude price volatility due to Red Sea tensions and Russia-Ukraine peace signals, which could affect its refining margins and operations.

Thai Oil expects crude oil prices this week to be volatile, amid tensions in the Red Sea and positive signals from peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The conflict between the United States and Iran is likely to intensify after President Donald Trump threatened retaliation against Iran if attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea occur. Previously, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked two Saudi oil tankers on July 22, 2026, causing some vessels to begin avoiding the Bab el-Mandeb strait and raising market concerns over crude oil exports through the Red Sea. Meanwhile, a sideline meeting between the US and Russian foreign ministers at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila signaled a potential return to diplomatic negotiations to end the war. Additionally, a new round of US import tariffs on 60 countries at rates between 10.0 and 12.5 percent, effective from July 24, 2026, may pressure global economic growth and long-term oil demand, even though oil and natural gas imports are exempt. The market is also watching the US Federal Reserve meeting on July 28 to 29, 2026, where interest rates are expected to be held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, with the CME Group Fed Watch tool assigning a probability as high as 68.5 percent. Over the past week, West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 8.44 US dollars per barrel to 85.93 US dollars per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 9.97 US dollars per barrel to 92.62 US dollars per barrel, driven by concerns over escalating Middle East conflicts.
Thai Oil Public Company LimitedThai Oil expects crude price volatility due to Red Sea tensions and Russia-Ukraine peace signals, which could affect its refining margins and operations.