The TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, or TISCO ESU, has raised its forecast for Thailand's economic growth in 2026 to 2.1%, up from its previous estimate of around 1.8%, supported by oil prices that have not risen as much as feared and by hopes for government economic stimulus measures. However, Methas Rattanasorn, head of economic research at TISCO ESU, sees Thailand's economy slowing in the fourth quarter to growth of just 1.2%, the lowest level of the year, partly due to the high base in the same quarter a year earlier. The overall picture for 2027 still carries the risk of continued slowdown unless the government accelerates budget disbursement, increases the size of stimulus funds, and attracts foreign investment. On global market investment, Komson Prapanpol, head of the TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, assesses that the yield on 10-year US government bonds has passed its peak and will hold steady at 5% through the end of the year. If the bond yield holds at that level, the S&P 500 still has slight upside and could end 2026 at around 7,800 to 8,000 points. He also assesses that the risk of an AI bubble remains significantly lower than during the 2000 dot-com crisis and the 2008 subprime crisis. Meanwhile, Thanathat Srisawat, head of investment strategy, recommends that investors increase their weighting in commodity assets to 5% to 15% to reduce overall portfolio risk and increase the chance of generating returns, particularly oil futures or oil ETFs such as USO, as well as copper and agricultural products. He also advises avoiding global bond indices weighted by debt burden, which could increase holdings of bonds from countries with high fiscal risk.
