Tom Lee Says Prediction Markets Underestimate CLARITY Act Passage Odds as Ethereum Flashes Bullish Signal

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Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee said prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi may be underestimating the likelihood of the CLARITY Act becoming law, citing private conversations with policymakers that painted a more optimistic picture. Lee endorsed analysis from Fundstrat Head of Digital Asset Strategy Sean Farrell, who noted that the market's limited liquidity and recent restrictions on senators trading on prediction markets could mean quoted probabilities do not fully reflect informed expectations. Polymarket gave the legislation a 47% chance of passing at the time of writing, up from about 43% on Tuesday but still below 50%, with more than $2.1 million traded on the market. Lee also highlighted a separate bullish signal for Ethereum, describing ETH as strengthening as an AI downstream asset that could benefit from the next stage of AI adoption, as Fundstrat's performance chart showed Ethereum rising approximately 24% while the Roundhill Memory ETF declined by around 38% over the comparison period. Lee has previously predicted Ethereum could reach between $7,000 and $9,000 in the near term and as high as $22,000 if Bitcoin reaches $250,000 and historical ETH-to-BTC ratios hold, which would require ETH to rise approximately 1,040% from its current price near $1,930.

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Fundstrat Global AdvisorsPrivate± Mixed
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KalshiPrivate± Mixed
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PolymarketPrivate± Mixed
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