Asia Plus Securities notes that TOP reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 8.6 billion baht, down 56.0% from the previous quarter, in line with expectations. The result was pressured by special items swinging to total expenses of 7.7 billion baht, compared with income of about 9.9 billion baht in the prior period, mainly from a reversal to inventory losses under net realizable value of 7.6 billion baht and foreign exchange losses of 689.5 million baht. Core profit rose 69.6% from the previous quarter to 16 billion baht, supported by the refinery business, as market gross refining margin increased to 21.2 from 12.6 US dollars per barrel amid war conditions that lifted spreads across all products. The research team maintains its 2026 core profit estimate at about 29 billion baht and expects third-quarter core profit to decline from the second quarter, assuming the war does not intensify as in the first round. It recommends only trading based on fund flows in the energy and petrochemical sector, and expects full-year 2026 dividends of about 4.20 baht per share, implying a dividend yield of 6.6% per year, with the first half likely to pay about 2.0 to 2.2 baht, pending approval at the meeting on 27 August. Krungsri Securities views the second-quarter 2026 core profit of about 17 billion baht as slightly positive, with strong growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, close to its estimate. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightened oil supply, lifting refining margins to 21.2 US dollars per barrel, up 308% year-on-year and 68% quarter-on-quarter. It maintains the view that second-half 2026 core profit will grow year-on-year on tight supply but slow from the first half because crude premiums remain high and product spreads are starting to narrow. The research team rolls over to a 2027 target price of 70.0 baht per share and keeps a Neutral recommendation, saying the current price is close to full value and already reflects earnings above normal levels in 2026 to 2027 to some extent. It maintains the view that investors can hold for dividends and wait for upside from progress in the CFP project dispute.
Asia Plus Group Holdings PCL
Bank of Ayudhya PCLThai Oil Public Company LimitedStrait of Hormuz closure tightened oil supply, lifting refining margins and boosting core profit.
