TTB Wealth warns new Fed rate hike could push SET down 5-10%

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Summary · why it matters

Analysts at TTB Wealth Securities Public Company Limited warn that this September's FOMC meeting is a key event the market is watching closely. If the Fed decides to raise rates, it would mark the first hike of this cycle, following six consecutive holds since the last cut on December 10, 2025. Historical data from 1994 to 2022 covering six previous hiking cycles shows that US equities and the SET typically held steady to edged slightly lower in the 15 days after the first hike, before facing greater pressure over the following 30 to 60 days. US equities fell an average of 3-4%, while the SET saw average declines of as much as 5-10%. The current cycle differs from past tightening cycles because the economy and labour market are not as hot as in 2022. So if the Fed resumes hiking, the market could face pressure from both a slowing economy and inflation that remains above the 2% target. And if the Fed hikes while the MPC holds rates steady, the US-Thailand interest rate gap would widen, adding pressure on fund flows and the baht. The groups likely to outperform in a rising bond yield environment include banks, and those benefiting from a weaker baht, such as tourism, exports, and companies with a high share of revenue in foreign currency. TTB Wealth recommends selective investment in groups with earnings growth that can withstand tight monetary policy, such as ADVANC, AMATA, WHA, KTB and BBL, and in groups that benefit from a weaker baht, such as DELTA, AOT, CENTEL, CPN and PR9.

Impact on stocks 10

Cloud & Digital Infrastructure▲ · 1 stocks
Climate Adaptation & Water▲ · 1 stocks
Industrials▲ · 1 stocks
Airports Of Thailand PCL
AOT
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

TTB Wealth names AOT among groups benefiting from a weaker baht, which would follow a Fed hike widening the US-Thailand rate gap.

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 1 stocks
Bangkok Bank PCL
BBL
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

TTB Wealth recommends KTB as a bank likely to outperform in a rising bond yield environment and to withstand tight monetary policy.

Consumer Discretionary▲ · 1 stocks
Electrification & Mobility▲ · 1 stocks
Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Health Care▲ · 1 stocks
Artificial Intelligence▲ · 1 stocks
Real Estate▲ · 1 stocks
Central Pattana Public Company Limited
CPN
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

Listed among groups benefiting from a weaker baht (CPN), but only as a recommendation in a Fed-rate-hike scenario, not a company-specific development.

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