Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited

Kasikorn Securities said the government is preparing to launch the Thai Teaw Thai Plus programme on 1 October to stimulate domestic tourism, targeting total tourism revenue of 3 trillion baht within four years. For 2026, revenue is expected to be close to the previous year at 2.7 trillion baht, with around 33 million foreign tourists, while moving towards high-value tourism and using data and artificial intelligence to upgrade marketing. The research team views this as positive for tourism, hotel, airline, airport and retail sectors, especially Airports of Thailand, Central Plaza Hotel, The Erawan Group, Minor International and Asset World Corporation, if the measures help stimulate domestic travel and spending in the fourth quarter of 2026 as expected.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand revealed that from 1 January to 15 August 2026, cumulative foreign tourist arrivals exceeded 19 million, generating revenue of 957.618 billion baht. The top five source markets were China with 3.33 million visitors, Malaysia with 2.50 million, India with 1.46 million, Russia with 1.14 million, and South Korea with 729,000. For the second half of 2026, the public and private sectors will host world-class events such as the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings 2026 in Bangkok from 12 to 18 October 2026, with participants from 191 countries, as well as Tomorrowland Thailand and Wonderfruit 2026 in Pattaya, Chonburi province, which are expected to draw large numbers of international attendees. Traditional events such as Loy Krathong and countdown celebrations will also be held across many areas nationwide. For the 2027 target, the Tourism Authority of Thailand aims for foreign tourist arrivals to grow by no less than 5% from 2026, when arrivals are expected to reach 33 million, while spreading tourists to primary and secondary cities in a 60 to 40 ratio and pushing the loyalty index into the top three in Asia. Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL, expects group-wide RevPAR in the third quarter of 2026 to rise 3 to 5% year on year, with the fourth quarter of 2026 continuing to improve, as advance bookings for October 2026 are higher than the same period last year. For 2026, the company expects an occupancy rate of 70 to 75%, RevPAR of 4,200 to 4,400 baht, and total joint venture revenue growth of 3 to 5%, or 14.2 to 14.5 billion baht. The Erawan Group Public Company Limited, or ERW, assesses that its business in the second half of 2026 will grow better than the first half thanks to the high season and national events that stimulate travel, while maintaining its 2026 total revenue growth target of 9% year on year, split between 7% growth in the luxury-to-economy hotel segment and 14% growth in the budget segment, or HOP INN. Analysts at Yuanta Securities Thailand expect third-quarter 2026 performance to recover from the second quarter of 2026 and beat the same period last year despite the low season, with momentum continuing into the fourth quarter of 2026 as the high season begins. They also expect government stimulus measures such as the Rao Tiew Duay Kan or Kon La Khrueng schemes, which the Ministry of Tourism and Sports is expected to propose to the cabinet in time for the year-end high season. Analysts continue to recommend stock selection on a company-by-company basis, advising investors to buy CENTEL because its food business is not heavily affected while its hotel business still shows improving RevPAR, supporting investment opportunities through 2027, and also recommend buying ERW and MINT.

Bualuang Securities analyzed third-quarter 2026 profit trends, saying overall net profit and core profit are likely to expand compared with the same period last year, but are expected to slow from the previous quarter. Key support comes from Brent crude oil prices rising an average of 28 percent year on year, Singapore GRM refining margins surging 434 percent year on year, and wider petrochemical spreads for both HDPE and PET in the West, along with momentum from mobile and internet service revenue, electronics demand tied to the AI and data center cycle, and the recognition of new production capacity and overseas power plant profits at GULF. At the same time, higher jet fuel costs are pressuring airlines, and narrowing interest margins are weighing on the banking sector. Groups whose core profit grew year on year were led by energy, petrochemicals, construction materials, electronics, communications, and retail. Groups whose core profit fell year on year were led by transport and banking. Bualuang Securities recommends a selective investment strategy focused on stocks whose third-quarter profit trends are still expected to grow strongly, have not seen sharp profit downgrades over the past three months, and have clear positive factors supporting recovery. These include KCE, CBG, ITC, BH, BDMS, AOT, CENTEL, and GPSC.

Bualuang Securities said second-quarter 2026 results for the tourism sector were stronger than the soft tourist arrival numbers suggested, with combined core profit rising 3% year on year to 7.76 billion baht and mostly beating expectations. For the third quarter of 2026, it expects combined core profit to still grow 3% year on year. Although the headline figure looks modest because of the large profit bases at Airports of Thailand and Minor International, which are expected to grow only 4% and 1% year on year respectively, the recovery in hotel stocks is clearer. It expects The Erawan Group to rise 28% year on year, while Asset World Corp and Central Plaza Hotel are each expected to rise 10% year on year. Leading indicators in the third quarter so far support that picture. July revenue per available room rose 26% year on year for Asset World Corp, 8% for Central Plaza Hotel, about 5% for The Erawan Group and 4% for Minor International. Asset World Corp also has booked room revenue for the second half of 2026 that is 30% higher than a year earlier, while The Erawan Group's August bookings improved from the previous month. Overseas, Maldives tourist arrivals swung from a 2% year-on-year decline in July to an 11% year-on-year increase in August, which is positive for Central Plaza Hotel, while the recovery is spreading more broadly across Northeast Asia and long-haul markets. Bualuang Securities maintained its 2026 foreign tourist arrival forecast at 31.9 million, down 3.3% year on year, after the first half of 2026 came in at 16.2 million, down 3.2% year on year. That means the second half of 2026 would need to fall about 3.3% year on year, which is still in line with the forecast. If second-half 2026 arrivals are flat year on year, there is a chance the full-year figure could be revised up to about 32.4 million, down 1.6% year on year. It kept its 2027 forecast at 34.0 million, up 6.6% year on year. The key point is that this recovery is more value-led than volume-led. Average spending per tourist rose 7% year on year in the first quarter of 2026 and 15% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 to 52,918 baht per person, helped by longer stays and a higher share of higher-spending long-haul tourists. That means tourism revenue and hotel profits have a chance to recover faster than tourist numbers alone would suggest. Bualuang Securities maintained an overweight rating on the tourism sector and selected Asset World Corp, Central Plaza Hotel and The Erawan Group, in that order. Asset World Corp stands out for its MICE booking momentum and asset injections into a REIT to recycle capital. Central Plaza Hotel is supported simultaneously by renovated Thai hotels, Maldives and Dubai hotels gradually raising occupancy, and improving food business margins. The Erawan Group is a recovery play on revenue per available room and HOP INN expansion, with potential upside from a future business separation. Airports of Thailand is not among the report's three top picks, but it has the most pronounced earnings inflection point, with 2027 core profit expected to grow 59% year on year from the full-year recognition of the passenger service charge.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that forward indicators for the hotel sector in the third quarter of 2069 remain strong compared with a year earlier, with Central Plaza Hotel having on-the-book revenue per available room up 15 percent, followed by The Erawan Group targeting revenue growth of 7 percent, and Minor International's on-the-book European hotel revenue per available room up 4 percent, with Thailand up 10 percent. July revenue per available room supports this trend, with Central Plaza Hotel Group up 13 percent and Thailand up 18 percent, The Erawan Group up 5 percent and its economy-to-luxury segment up 8 percent, with luxury up 15 percent, and Minor International's Europe up 4 percent and Thailand up 14 to 16 percent. Airports of Thailand's international passengers during the first 15 days of August were still up 2.5 percent year on year, compared with a decline of 1.7 percent year on year in July, reflecting resilient travel amid the war situation. Meanwhile, the average weekly jet fuel price for the week ending 14 August was around 159 US dollars per barrel, below the peak of 209 US dollars per barrel in April, helping ease pressure on travel costs. The research team selects stocks with company-specific support factors and laggard prices relative to the SET index, namely Central Plaza Hotel and Airports of Thailand, while Thai Airways is viewed as tactical on the assumption of lower jet fuel prices. It notes that if Brent crude exceeds 100 US dollars per barrel for several consecutive days, that would be a tactical trigger to consider reducing weightings in tourism-related stocks to limit risk.

Asia Plus Securities' research team said profits of 283 Thai listed companies out of 682 that have reported second-quarter results came in 11.9% above market expectations. Combined with estimates for the remaining companies, which cover 93% of market capitalisation, it assesses that total second-quarter profit could reach 355 billion baht, up 6.7% from the previous quarter and 8.2% from a year earlier. This raises expectations that second-quarter profit for fiscal 2026 may set a record high, continuing from the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The main growth drivers are petrochemicals, packaging and energy. Including commodity-linked groups such as energy, petrochemicals, food and agriculture, they would account for 44% of total market profit, compared with a normal level of about 30%. The research team views that first-half profit already represents 60% of the full-year target, reducing pressure in the third and fourth quarters and opening upside to the market-wide earnings per share estimate of 95 baht per share, which gives room for the index target to be revised upward. Meanwhile, foreign fund flows into the Thai stock market slowed clearly in August, with cumulative net selling of nearly 10 billion baht, while retail investors were net buyers supporting the index. The research team recommends three stock groups: companies with better-than-expected results such as IRPC, TCAP, KCE and CENTEL; companies benefiting from commodities and geopolitics such as TASCO, RCL, BCP and PTTGC; and companies expected to recover in the second half such as THAI, ERW and BCH. Its top three picks are PTT, BDMS and CENTEL.

Five Thai listed companies with market capitalizations above 40 billion baht reported second-quarter 2026 net profit growth of more than 50 percent compared with the same period last year. PTTEP posted net profit of 27.197 billion baht, up 101 percent. True Corporation posted net profit of 6.554 billion baht, up 222 percent. SCG Packaging posted net profit of 2.304 billion baht, up 128 percent. Central Plaza Hotel posted net profit of 166 million baht, up 51 percent. Siam Global House posted net profit of 955.48 million baht, up 83 percent.

Minor International and Central Plaza Hotel reported strong first-half results, with net profit rising significantly compared to the same period last year. MINT posted a net profit of 4.215 billion baht, up 62 percent from a year earlier, while CENTEL recorded a net profit of 1.256 billion baht, up 48 percent. Both companies were supported by the recovery of the tourism sector and an increase in foreign tourist arrivals.

Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL, expects its operating performance in the second half of 2026 to improve after passing its lowest point in the second quarter, supported by foreign tourists, especially from India and China, as well as renovated and newly opened hotels. Revenue per available room, or RevPAR, in July grew 8% year-on-year, with the Thailand hotel portfolio surging 18%, bringing RevPAR for the first seven months back to flat, compared with a 1% decline in the first six months. The company is confident that 2026 revenue will reach 33 billion baht, comprising approximately 14.2 to 14.5 billion baht from the hotel business including joint ventures, and approximately 18.5 to 18.7 billion baht from the food business including joint ventures, while maintaining a three-year investment budget of 16 billion baht.

Kasikorn Securities assesses that the government is likely to proceed with the Thai Chuay Thai Plus Phase 2 project after the first phase ends on 30 September 2026. The first phase saw 26 million participants and generated over 86 billion baht in circulation, mostly distributed to provincial areas, helping to ease cost-of-living pressures and stimulate the domestic economy. If Phase 2 continues, it would be a positive factor for consumer and retail stocks, as purchasing power and money circulation could recover towards the end of the year. Meanwhile, the government is preparing to push the Thai Thiao Thai Plus project from October to December 2026 to boost domestic tourism through a nationwide co-payment system at a single rate, and is considering supporting accommodation at a fixed rate of 2,000 to 3,000 baht per night, as well as increasing tourism service coupons. The proposal is expected to be submitted to the cabinet within August. These measures will have a positive impact on tourism and hotel stocks, especially The Erawan Group, Central Plaza Hotel, and Asset World Corp, as well as restaurant businesses, supported by domestic tourism and spending during the year-end travel season.

Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL, reported a normalised profit of 176 million baht for the second quarter of 2026, beating analyst and market expectations by 54% and 66% respectively, driven by better-than-expected EBITDA margin and lower finance costs. The hotel business posted core revenue of 2.5 billion baht, down 30% quarter-on-quarter but up 5% year-on-year. RevPar excluding joint ventures stood at 3,400 baht per night, down 37% quarter-on-quarter but up 1% year-on-year. While the Japan hotel portfolio fell 46% year-on-year against a high base from the previous year's World Expo, the Thailand market rose 6% year-on-year and the Maldives delivered standout growth of 69% year-on-year. However, share of profit from hotel joint ventures in Dubai was impacted by the war, resulting in the hotel business reporting a loss of 52 million baht in Q2 2026, an improvement from a loss of 90 million baht in Q2 2025 due to lower finance costs. The food business recorded core revenue excluding joint ventures of 3.3 billion baht, up 4% quarter-on-quarter and 2% year-on-year, with net profit of 228 million baht, down 2% quarter-on-quarter but up 18% year-on-year, helped by closure of unprofitable outlets and better cost management. The company slightly lowered its 2026 guidance for the hotel business including joint ventures, now expecting RevPar of 4,200 to 4,400 baht per night, representing a decline of 2% to growth of 3% year-on-year, and revenue growth of 3% to 5% year-on-year, down from the previous forecast of 5% to 7% growth. For the food business, it maintained its outlook for flat same-store sales growth, total system sales growth of 10% year-on-year, and 75 to 85 new store openings. Yuanta Securities' research team maintained its estimates and buy recommendation with a fair value of 45.00 baht, viewing the earnings beat and potential for upward estimate revisions as positive catalysts for the stock.

Asia Plus Securities says the Hormuz Strait negotiations, which added demands for war damage compensation between the United States and Iran, sent Brent crude oil prices surging more than 5% and US government bond yields soaring near previous highs, prompting cumulative foreign capital outflows from the Thai stock market of over 9 billion baht since the start of August. The SET Index yesterday closed up 12.36 points at 1,624.36 points, but excluding the influence of DELTA shares, the actual index would have been down as much as 5 points, reflecting still-heavy selling pressure. The research team assesses that persistently high geopolitical tensions and domestic stimulus measures, such as the Thai Helps Thai Plus scheme with cumulative spending exceeding 100 billion baht and the Thai Travels Thai Plus scheme expected to reach a conclusion within one to two weeks, will benefit refinery and oil transport stocks, as well as retail, food, and leasing sectors. The investment strategy recommends three standout stocks: PTT, a large-cap stock benefiting from recovering oil prices and offering high dividends; CENTEL, expected to post strong profit growth in the second quarter of 2026; and PRM, which gains positive sentiment from the Hormuz Strait crisis boosting marine oil transport service fees.

Krungsri Securities stated that the Tourism Ministry's Thai Tour Thai Plus scheme will stimulate domestic tourism during the low season by subsidising service sector spending via the Pao Tang app, while also moving ahead with collecting a landing fee from foreign tourists to channel funds into the Thai Tourism Promotion Fund. The revenue will be used to develop tourist areas, allocate insurance premiums for tourist safety, and restore the environment. The research unit sees a positive impact on service sector stocks with high domestic revenue exposure, especially AWC, ERW, and CENTEL, while the landing fee is expected to have a limited impact.

Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL, reported second-quarter 2026 core profit of 1.077 billion baht, up 35% from a year earlier and 37% from the previous quarter, exceeding market expectations by 24%. The strong performance was driven by robust gross margins, particularly in the food business which delivered standout results that beat forecasts. In the hotel business, revenue per available room excluding Dubai rose 1% year-on-year but fell 37% quarter-on-quarter due to seasonality in Thailand and the Maldives. The new hotel in the Maldives narrowed its loss to 60 million baht, down from a loss of 153 million baht in the second quarter of 2025. The food business saw same-store sales hold steady compared to a year ago, despite pressure from the Thai Chuay Thai Plus program. Overall gross margin came in at 41.9%, above the analyst estimate of 40.8%, thanks to efficient hotel cost management and containment of food costs, along with a 12% year-on-year decline in interest expenses. Analysts raised their 2026 and 2027 core profit forecasts by 5% and 3% respectively, resulting in a projected 2026 net profit of 2.28 billion baht, up 21% from the prior year. Third-quarter 2026 core profit is expected to grow both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with advance bookings indicating that revenue per available room excluding Dubai will increase 12% from a year earlier. The recommendation remains buy, with the target price raised to 48 baht from 42 baht, based on discounted cash flow methodology.

Land and Houses Securities stated that CPN reported second-quarter 2026 normalised profit of 4.651 billion baht, up 19 percent from the prior year, close to expectations. The result was supported by rental and service income hitting a new high for the fourth consecutive quarter, driven by new shopping centres and accelerating occupancy rates at Central Park and Central Krabi, as well as same-mall revenue growth on higher traffic and tenant sales. Meanwhile, the hotel business posted revenue of 464 million baht, up 5 percent from a year earlier, helped by improved performance at Hilton and Centara brands and the gradual recognition of income from three new GO! hotels, even though average occupancy slipped to 74 percent. CPN continues to have a strong pipeline of new projects, with Central Northville set to open in July 2026, the luxury zone extension at Central Phuket in the fourth quarter of 2026, and The Central Phaholyothin in the first quarter of 2027, which will be key drivers in expanding net leasable area and building new revenue streams. Government measures and momentum from foreign arrivals will support growth in the second half of 2026. The analyst maintains a buy rating with a target price of 77.40 baht per share, based on discounted cash flow, implying upside of about 14 percent, and expects a dividend of 2.60 baht per share, representing a yield of around 3 percent.

Land and Houses Securities assesses that the retail sector faces short-term challenges, with CPAXT's second-quarter profit falling 18 percent year-on-year despite higher total revenue, as selling and administrative expenses rose from accelerated branch expansion and Lotus's same-store sales declined nearly 4 percent due to indirect impacts from the Thai Helps Thai Plus scheme. Analysts expect the retail and wholesale sector to recover in the fourth quarter, which is the high season, and may get support from short-term stimulus measures such as increasing the state welfare card limit, which will benefit TNP. BJC is expected to see profit recovery in the second half, supported by its packaging business. Meanwhile, the tourism sector is viewed as the most attractive for long-term investment, as the government prepares concrete tourism stimulus measures in the fourth quarter, with recommended stocks including ERW, CENTEL, and MINT. The finance sector is a laggard with earnings poised to surge, with SAWAD expected to post quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter and stand out in the second half, while MTC is worth accumulating as its price has not risen much.

The Ministry of Tourism is preparing to propose to the Cabinet by the end of August 2026 for approval of the Thai Tour Thai Plus project, requesting a budget of 2.45 billion baht from the emergency loan decree. It aims to stimulate the economy during the low season and generate over 56 billion baht in circulation. If approved, the public can start using the benefits from late 2026, including accommodation discounts of up to 3,000 baht, digital coupons, and airfare discounts, alongside measures to attract foreign tourists. Analysts assess that this project will be positive for tourism, hotel, and domestic airline stocks, namely CENTEL, ERW, MINT, AWC, AOT, BA, and AAV.

Tisco Securities has raised its 2026 target for the Stock Exchange of Thailand index to 1,670 points from 1,600 points, viewing the Thai stock market as a safe haven amid Middle East tensions and supported by improving economic fundamentals. It recommends overweight positions in banking, transport, healthcare, and tourism sectors in the second half of the year. The Tisco Economic and Strategy Analysis Centre has revised its GDP forecast for next year to 2.1 percent from 1.7 percent, after the Constitutional Court ruled that the 400 billion baht emergency loan decree is constitutional, allowing the inclusion of the impact from the latter 200 billion baht loan for energy transition in the estimates. The new SET Index target of 1,670 points is based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6 times and SET earnings per share for 2026 and 2027 of 88.4 baht and 95.0 baht, respectively. For August, five-year and ten-year historical data show the SET Index has a 70 to 80 percent chance of closing positive, with average returns of 1.5 to 2.9 percent, supported by seasonal speculative buying around second-quarter earnings announcements, expectations of interim dividends, and the Thailand Focus event in late August, which historically has helped the SET Index rise in the two weeks following the event with a nearly 70 percent chance of a positive close and an average return of 1.4 percent. Top stock picks for August are CENTEL, COM7, CPN, GULF, KBANK, KTB, and PTT, with support levels at 1,570 and 1,540 points and resistance at 1,630 to 1,640 and 1,660 points. For foreign investment via depositary receipts, TENCENT80 and TRIPCOM80 are recommended.

Bualuang Securities has upgraded its recommendation on Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL, to buy from hold, and lifted it from being the least preferred hotel stock to the second top pick after AWC. The move follows a significant change in the earnings outlook, with profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 raised by 13 percent and 15 percent respectively, and the target price raised to 48 baht from 34 baht, implying upside of around 25 percent. Five previously concerning negative factors are easing faster than expected: the impact of war on hotel businesses in Thailand, the Maldives, and Dubai; losses from new hotels in the Maldives; a reduction in average daily rate at Japanese hotels; the impact of renovation closures in Thailand; and the food business potentially facing pressure from purchasing power and costs. The Thai hotel business remains strong, with second-quarter 2026 revenue per available room growing 3 percent year-on-year, and expected to accelerate to 8 to 10 percent in the fourth quarter, driven by MICE events and large-scale activities. Dubai appears to have passed its trough, with revenue per available room, which had fallen over 60 percent in the second quarter, improving to around negative 30 percent, based on forward booking data for July that continues to improve. The Maldives is recovering faster than expected, with tourist arrivals improving from a 24 percent decline in April to a 1.5 percent decline in July. Losses are expected to narrow from 290 million baht in 2025 to 120 million baht in 2026, with a chance of breaking even in 2027. In Japan, although average daily rate remains pressured by a high base, it is not expected to be a continued drag on earnings after this year. The food business's same-store sales growth has stabilized, despite the economic slowdown and the impact of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus scheme, while branch expansion continues and margins remain strong. The research team therefore views CENTEL as transitioning from a stock with multiple downside risks to an earnings upgrade cycle and valuation rerating, while the share price still lags the hotel sector.

Pi Securities notes that Bloomberg Consensus has raised its earnings forecasts for Thai listed companies to over 100 baht per share this year and 105 baht per share next year, reflecting that the market is starting to see a better earnings trend for Thai companies than previously expected. If earnings meet estimates and foreign capital inflows continue, the SET Index has a chance to move up and test the 1,650-point area, and if it breaks through, the next target assessed by many analysts around 1,700 points remains possible. With a more relaxed overall picture, Pi Securities still favors stocks benefiting from lower oil prices and the domestic economic recovery, especially MINT, CENTEL, as well as fundamentally strong stocks like ADVANC, which still have support from earnings performance and continued investment flows rotating into quality stocks.

Asia Plus Securities forecasts that the global and Thai economies will decelerate towards the end of 2026, with US and China GDP in the fourth quarter falling to 2.0% and 4.6% respectively, while Thai GDP will slow from 2.8% in the first quarter to just 0.9% in the final quarter, due to the impact of the Middle East conflict pressuring oil prices and raising costs. Investors should therefore closely monitor Thai economic figures in August, including inflation on August 6, which the market expects at plus 2.6% year-on-year, second-quarter GDP on August 17, and the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on August 26, where the policy rate is expected to be held at 1.00%. Asia Plus recommends positioning portfolios cautiously and investing selectively in stocks with specific positive factors, highlighting DOHOME for expected strong second-quarter profit growth and higher gross margins, CPALL for its continued earnings recovery and benefit from government spending, and CENTEL for benefiting from the high season for tourism and a recovery in foreign tourist arrivals.

Phillip Securities Thailand forecasts CENTEL's core profit in the second quarter of 2026 at 112 million baht, down 89.6 percent from the previous quarter but up 7.7 percent from a year earlier. Total revenue is projected at 5.728 billion baht, a decline of 14.7 percent quarter-on-quarter but a rise of 2.3 percent year-on-year. This breaks down into hotel revenue of 2.461 billion baht and food business revenue of 3.267 billion baht. The number of restaurant outlets has increased to 1,510. Hotels in the Maldives saw occupancy rise to 53 percent, while hotels in Thailand improved to 70 percent. However, hotels in Japan slipped to 63 percent. The Dubai hotel, in which the company holds a 40 percent stake, was affected by Middle East tensions, pushing occupancy down to 44 percent. Nonetheless, the second-half trend is recovering, driven by the onset of the tourist season, revenue management strategies, and strong advance bookings from the World Bank and IMF meetings in October, as well as the Tomorrowland music festival in Pattaya. These events have lifted bookings at COSI Pattaya and Centara Grand Mirage Beach Resort Pattaya to between 70 and 80 percent. The analyst maintains a buy rating with a target price of 42.00 baht per share.

The Minister of Tourism and Sports has assigned policies to the Tourism Authority of Thailand board to drive the tourism industry under the concept of Tourism for All, Tourism for the Future, preparing to move forward with three key projects during the high season. These are the Thai Travels Thailand Plus, or Co-pay, project to stimulate domestic travel; the Fly Thai All the Feelings project, partnering with six domestic airlines to offer ticket discounts to Thai citizens for 400,000 seats; and the Thailand Air Connect project, collaborating with airlines and partners to increase frequency and seat capacity on both charter and commercial flights. In addition, the government aims to elevate Thailand into a valuable and sustainable destination, promoting travel to secondary cities and 55 target communities, and pushing for the country to become a global event hub by hosting the Tomorrowland Thailand music festival from 11 to 13 December 2026 in Chonburi province, which is expected to attract no fewer than 150,000 attendees and generate total economic value of up to 6.132 billion baht. Kasikorn Securities, or KS, assesses that these measures are a positive factor for tourism-related stocks, including AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL, ERW, MINT, and AWC, as well as retail operators in tourist cities, viewing that travel and spending have an opportunity to recover in the second half of the year.

Several brokers view MOSHI as the standout in the retail sector. Maybank Securities forecasts second-quarter 2026 profit at 154 million baht, up 15% year-on-year, with same-store sales growth of 3.5%, the highest in the group. KGI Securities and DBS Vickers Securities emphasize recovering consumer confidence and ongoing branch expansion plans. In the hotel sector, ERW is expected to post a 25% year-on-year profit increase in the second quarter of 2026, supported by short-haul tourists and HOP INN. CENTEL is projected to earn 120 million baht, up 15% year-on-year, and is benefiting from positive sentiment around year-end domestic events. For large-cap stocks, PTT is seen as having its core business returning to a recovery cycle. Krungsri Securities expects normalized profit in 2026 to grow 66%, with the stock trading at a low price-to-book value of just 0.95 times. TRUE is forecast to achieve a new record high for second-quarter 2026 profit, reaching 6.8 billion baht, a 232% year-on-year surge, driven by higher margins and reduced competition. In logistics, SJWD is expected to report normalized second-quarter 2026 profit of 337 million baht, up 18% year-on-year, the highest in five quarters. UOB Kay Hian has upgraded BJC to a buy recommendation, citing an improving utilization outlook for its glass bottle production. Additionally, AIRA Securities notes that GANFENG23, which references Ganfeng Lithium Group, one of the world's largest lithium producers, has a forward price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 of just 7.8 times, well below its five-year historical average of 14.4 times, with earnings expected to recover as lithium carbonate prices rise to 160,000 yuan per ton.

Dao Securities Thailand has raised its target prices for hotel stocks CENTEL and ERW while maintaining buy recommendations. It expects CENTEL's normalised profit for the second quarter of 2026 to come in at 120 million baht, up 15 percent from a year earlier but down 89 percent from the previous quarter due to the low season. ERW's normalised profit is forecast at 75 million baht, up 21 percent year-on-year but down 81 percent quarter-on-quarter. The research team has lifted its 2026 and 2027 normalised profit estimates for CENTEL by 14 percent and 11 percent respectively, reflecting a smaller-than-expected impact from the Middle East situation, and raised CENTEL's target price to 42.00 baht from 37.00 baht. For ERW, it has raised annual profit estimates by 5 percent and lifted the target price to 3.70 baht from 3.20 baht.

AWC shares rose 8.95% to 2.92 baht, up 0.24 baht, leading the tourism sector after InnovestX Securities raised its 2026 foreign tourist arrival estimate from 31 million to 33 million. Foreign tourist arrivals from January 1 to July 18, 2026, stood at 17.4 million, down 3.1% year-on-year, and are expected to return to year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2026, driven by high-season demand, global events, and government measures. The research team raised normalized earnings estimates for hotel stocks, with ERW seeing the largest upgrade at 15%, followed by AWC at 11%, CENTEL at 7%, and MINT at 1%, based on their revenue exposure to Thai hotels. ERW is seen as best positioned due to its high share of revenue from Thailand and a strong domestic guest base, while CENTEL is expected to post the strongest profit growth in 2027, supported by a new hotel in the Maldives and a recovery at its joint-venture hotel in Dubai.

Thailand's hotel business in the second half of 2026 is supported by business travel and global events hosted by the country, expected to attract over 300,000 high-quality travelers, driving occupancy rates and revenue per available room to grow continuously. Analysts at Kasikorn Securities revealed that although foreign tourist arrivals in April fell 7.0% year-on-year, the average daily room rate rose 6.1% to 1,947 baht, resulting in revenue per available room of 1,411 baht, up 4.2%, and May is expected to recover with a 4.0% increase in tourist numbers. Key events such as Gastech, the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings, Thailand MICE Week, and Tomorrowland Thailand will be positive factors for hotel operators, especially AWC, ERW, CENTEL, and MINT, as well as airport and airline businesses. The research team maintains a buy recommendation on AWC with a target price of 3.55 baht, and on ERW.

KGI Securities maintains a buy recommendation on Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL, and raises its 2027 target price to 44.00 baht from 38.00 baht, after lifting its 2026 and 2027 profit forecasts by 8% and 14% respectively. The research team believes second-quarter 2026 profit should come in better than previously expected, while July 2026 operating performance was stronger than anticipated and revenue per available room, or RevPAR, accelerated, supporting the view that second-half 2026 profit will recover faster than expected. In addition, the research team expects hotel demand to recover, especially in Thailand and the Maldives, and combined with improved operating leverage and cost control efficiency, this will push 2026 core profit to 2.26 billion baht, up 17% year-on-year, and to 2.60 billion baht, up 15% year-on-year in 2027, reinforcing a positive view on the stock.

Prime Minister Anutin's visit to China is bolstering investment and tourism confidence. The Tourism Authority of Thailand is partnering with Sichuan Airlines, Meituan, and several Chinese allies to increase flights, enhance safety, and market to quality tourists. The target for Chinese tourists in 2026 has been adjusted to 5.13 million, generating revenue of approximately 288 billion baht. Research views this as positive for tourism and aviation stocks such as AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL, ERW, MINT, and AWC, given the continued recovery in flights and Chinese tourist arrivals.

Phillip Securities expects the Thai stock index to trade sideways in a range of 1,640 to 1,665 points, pressured by a 2026 forward P/E of 16.7 times, close to the average since 2020 of 17.1 times, and banking stocks may face sell-on-fact pressure after earnings announcements. However, the TISA project measures will help prevent the index from falling deeply, and a rotation of funds out of banking stocks into real sector stocks is expected for speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings, which are anticipated to be strong. The investment strategy is divided into four main themes: speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings in stocks such as AMATA, CPALL, DELTA, HANA, ITC, KCE, MRDIY, MTC, OSP, QH, SAWAD, SCC, STECON, and TIDLOR; energy stocks in BCP, PTT, PTTEP, SPRC, and TOP; speculation on government measures or projects in BJC, CENTEL, CK, CPAXT, CRC, DOHOME, ERW, GLOBAL, HMPRO, LH, MINT, and SCC; and hopes for investment inflows from China in ADVANC, GUNKUL, GULF, ROJNA, WHA, and WHAUP.

Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL, disclosed that advance bookings for the third quarter of 2026 across its hotel portfolio in Thailand are trending to grow from the same period last year, especially at hotels in popular tourist destinations. Meanwhile, its hotel portfolio in Japan has returned to growth, and occupancy rates at its Dubai hotels are gradually recovering, expected to reach around 50 to 60 percent in the third quarter. On the cost side, fuel prices for the group's hotels in the Maldives are trending lower, which will help support gross margins compared with the first half of 2026. For the first six months of 2026, the overall hotel portfolio remained stable, with revenue per available room at 4,315 baht, down only 1 percent from the same period last year, and occupancy holding steady at 71 percent, reflecting the strength of the Thailand and Maldives portfolios in offsetting pressure from Dubai and Japan.

Kasikorn Securities notes that the Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported that from January 1 to July 18, 2026, Thailand welcomed a cumulative 17.36 million foreign tourists, generating revenue of 839 billion baht. Although this is still down 3.05 percent compared to the same period last year, the top five source markets were China, Malaysia, India, Russia, and South Korea. Meanwhile, in the latest week, tourist numbers rose 4.04 percent from the previous week, supported by school holidays, increased flights, and a recovery in the Taiwan market. The research team views this as positive for tourism and airport stocks such as Airports of Thailand, Asia Aviation, Bangkok Airways, Central Plaza Hotel, Erawan Group, Minor International, and Asset World Corporation, given the gradual recovery in tourist numbers expected in the second half of the year, even though cumulative arrivals remain slightly below last year's level.

Prime Minister Anutin led an economic delegation to Chengdu to meet with six leading Chinese companies: Xiaomi, ChangAn, InnoLight, Eoptolink, Sichuan Airlines, and Meituan. The goal is to attract investment in high-tech industries, automotive, and tourism, while also launching the Thailand-China (Sichuan) Investment Forum and the BOI Chengdu office to facilitate and accelerate capital inflows into Thailand. Kasikorn Securities' research team views this as positive for industrial estate groups such as AMATA, WHA, and ROJNA, given the opportunity for increased foreign direct investment, as well as for tourism and airport groups like AOT, ERW, CENTEL, and AWC, if flights and Chinese tourist numbers rise as planned.