U.S. Steel Stocks Swing Amid U.S.-Canada Trade War

GeopoliticsCommodity
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Summary · why it matters

U.S. steel and aluminum stocks surged and then retreated last week as the escalating trade war between the United States and Canada sent investors scrambling to reprice exposure to North American metals supply chains. The State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) reached a new intraday record on Monday, Aug. 25, but by Friday's close it had slipped into the red for the week, while the VanEck Steel ETF (SLX) was essentially unchanged. Through Aug. 28, SLX has gained more than 28% on the year and XLB more than 18%. The swing reflects the complexity of a trade war between two countries whose metals industries are deeply intertwined. Dan Luttner, managing partner of NEOS by Argon & Company, characterized the initial stock move as a repricing reflex rather than a durable signal, noting that Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs use electric arc furnace technology with no dependence on Canadian ore or slab, positioning them to capture tariff-driven pricing benefits. However, Cleveland-Cliffs stock is in negative territory for 2026 due to balance sheet stress, and Century Aluminum remains exposed because its raw inputs largely still flow across the Canadian border. Atsi Sheth, chief credit officer at Moody's Ratings, said uncertainty will persist, while Scott Beaulier, a University of Wyoming economics professor, urged caution against drawing firm conclusions from early stock moves. Canada announced counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of American goods last Tuesday, matching a 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian exports, with measures scheduled to kick in on Sept. 8. President Donald Trump has separately threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian autos, trucks, and steel to 50% on Jan. 1, 2027.

Impact on stocks 5

Critical Materials & Supply Chain± Mixed · 3 stocks
Century Aluminum Company
CENX
▼ NegativeTariffrelevance

Century Aluminum remains exposed because its raw inputs largely still flow across the Canadian border amid the U.S.-Canada trade war.

Nucor Corp
NUE
▲ PositiveTariffrelevance

Nucor's electric arc furnace technology has no dependence on Canadian ore or slab, positioning it to capture tariff-driven pricing benefits.

Materials · 1 stocks
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
CLF
± MixedTariffrelevance

Cleveland-Cliffs' EAF technology avoids Canadian ore/slab dependence, positioning it to capture tariff-driven pricing benefits, but its stock is in negative territory for 2026 on balance sheet stress.

Cloud & Digital Infrastructure · 1 stocks

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