UBS projects the space economy’s total addressable market at $1.3 trillion by 2040

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UBS projects the global space economy’s total addressable market could reach $1.3 trillion by 2040, representing annualised growth of about 7%. The estimate was reduced by one-third from a potential $2 trillion scenario to account for delays and technical hurdles. Satellite Industry Association data valued the narrower global space economy at $429 billion in 2025, up 3% from the previous year, with commercial satellites generating $303 billion and representing 71% of the total. Ground equipment was the largest segment at $165.2 billion, followed by satellite services at $105 billion, while consumer applications including satellite television, radio, and broadband accounted for $80.2 billion of service revenue. Lower launch costs, which could fall below $250 per kilogram by 2040 from roughly $1,500 to $2,000 currently, are expected to support expansion in satellite communications, Earth observation, space logistics, and emerging applications. National security spending is another major growth driver, with the proposed US Space Force budget rising 30% to $49.6 billion for fiscal 2027 and Germany committing €35 billion to space assets by 2030. Longer-term opportunities include private orbital stations, space-based manufacturing, lunar infrastructure, and orbital data centres, though many remain technically unproven and require substantial external funding. Venture investment reached $11.6 billion across 430 space-technology deals during 2026 through early July, already matching the total recorded in 2025.

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UBS published a research report projecting space economy TAM growth, which may support its investment banking and research franchise.

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