UnitedHealth's commercial medical cost trend is running modestly above 11%, pushing full commercial margin recovery past 2027. Management said the independent resolution process under the No Surprises Act is adding 50 basis points of incremental trend in 2026 and now totals at least 100 basis points of cost. The company raised adjusted earnings per share guidance for 2026 to a range of $19.50 to $20, and shares trade at $390.11. Medicare is improving, with the 2026 medical cost trend expected to come in below the initial estimate of around 10%, but management said the softer trend is not an inflection point. UnitedHealthcare expects full-year 2026 Medicare Advantage enrollment to decline by approximately 1.1 million through benefit adjustments and selective market participation changes.
UnitedHealth Group IncorporatedCommercial cost trend above 11% delays margin recovery past 2027, though 2026 EPS guidance raised.
