UnitedHealth stock has gained about 41% since early March, trading near $400 a share, but the company's turnaround is incomplete: while Medicare and care-delivery margins improved, its commercial book deteriorated. Management now expects full margin recovery in the commercial segment to extend past 2027, with medical cost trend running above 11% and no signs of moderation. The company's overall operating margin stands at 4.8%, below its three-year average of 7.1%, and adjusted 2026 earnings guidance is $19.50 to $20 per share, with segment operating-earnings outlooks of at least $12 billion for UnitedHealthcare and at least $2.2 billion for Optum Health. Rivals also repriced, with Elevance Health up 41.6% and Cigna up 4.7% over the same period, but UnitedHealth's commercial cost trend has not yet turned.
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Elevance Health IncUnitedHealth Group IncorporatedCommercial margin deterioration and delayed recovery past 2027, with medical cost trend above 11% and adjusted 2026 guidance below prior expectations.
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