US apartment completions are projected to fall nearly 34% year-over-year in 2026, reaching levels not seen since 2014, according to Marcus & Millichap. The firm’s 2026 outlook forecasts a national vacancy rate near 5.3%, below the historical average, with effective rents rising about 1.8% year over year. Early 2026 absorption ran 50% above long-term averages, supported by strong employment and steady renter demand. Large Sun Belt markets still face record supply from recent construction waves, while regions with less development report tighter vacancies and firmer rents. The supply reset is expected to stabilize fundamentals and improve landlord confidence, though benefits will vary by market.
Marcus & Millichap IncMarcus & Millichap's own 2026 outlook forecasts lower supply and improving landlord pricing power, which is positive for its brokerage business.