USDA Points to Higher Soybean Output, Pushing CBOT Grains Lower Across the Board

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Grain futures on the CBOT closed lower across the board on Friday, September 11, led by soybean contracts, which fell more than 2.6% and dropped below the 13-dollar-per-bushel level, after the US Department of Agriculture, or USDA, projected higher output. November-delivery soybeans fell 35.75 cents, or 2.68%, to close at 12.9650 dollars per bushel, while December-delivery corn fell 3.50 cents to close at 5.3025 dollars per bushel, and December-delivery wheat fell 16 cents, or 2.16%, to close at 7.2525 dollars per bushel. The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, or WASDE, said 2026 soybean production would come in at 4.54 billion bushels with a yield of 52.8 bushels per acre, above the August estimates of 4.52 billion bushels and 52.7 bushels respectively. At the same time, the USDA estimated US corn exports for the 2026/2027 marketing year at 1.93 million tons, above the upper end of the 700,000-ton to 1.7-million-ton range forecast by analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Soybean exports were put at 2.64 million tons, above analyst expectations, while wheat exports were 194,200 tons, below what analysts had forecast. The USDA also cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 3 million tons to 43 million tons, and lowered Ukraine's by 1 million tons to 12.5 million tons. Analysts at StoneX said the downgrades reflected that supply chains remain under pressure from intensifying conflict between the two countries.

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