When people talk about "adaptive agriculture," they usually picture high-tech tractors or drip irrigation. But the thing that decides whether a crop lives or dies in a year of extreme heat, drought, or disease is usually settled before it ever goes in the ground — at the seed that's been bred or gene-edited to be tough, the nutrients (NPK fertilizer + biological helpers) that feed it, and the crop protection that fends off insects, weeds, and fungus. This node is the business of "the inputs that let crops survive a harsher climate" — markets that add up to hundreds of billions of dollars a year, controlled by a handful of giants, and the very first gate of global food security.
El Niño drags India's rainfall 15% below average, raising risk of driest monsoon in 17 years
India's meteorological department has reported that an intensifying El Niño is putting India at risk of its driest monsoon season in 17 years, after cumulative rainfall from June to September came in 15% below the long-term average. That could weigh on agricultural output and further stoke food inflation, which climbed to 5.95% in August. The report said that if dry conditions persist, this year's monsoon will be the weakest since 2009, when rainfall was 18% below normal, potentially affecting both the current harvest and the next planting cycle. Food costs rose for a seventh straight month in August. The meteorological office had forecast in May that rainfall this season would be 10% below normal. Christian Werner, managing director of the consultancy Global Weather Climate Analytics in Australia, said weather conditions could favor cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal in the final week of September, which may help bring critically needed rain to eastern and northeastern India and ease drought conditions there. Adequate monsoon rainfall is crucial for the hundreds of millions of Indian farmers who rely on seasonal rains to grow their crops, with India among the world's largest producers of rice, sugar and cotton.
South Korea's August PPI rises 0.2% as heatwave pushes up agricultural prices
South Korea's central bank said on September 18 that the country's producer price index, or PPI, rose in August as agricultural prices climbed due to the impact of a heatwave. The PPI increased 0.2% in August from the previous month, after falling 0.4% in July, which was the first decline since August 2025. Compared with the same period a year earlier, the PPI rose 7.9% in August, accelerating from a 7.7% increase in July. The Bank of Korea said prices of industrial goods, including petroleum and chemical products, remained flat in August from the previous month, while electricity, gas and water prices rose 0.9%. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products rose 3.8% in August, accelerating from a 1.5% increase in July from the previous month, driven by prolonged high temperatures throughout the month. The domestic supply price index, which reflects both producer and import prices, fell 1.3% in August from the previous month.
Verisk Maplecroft warns Asia faces unrest risk from food crisis as Thailand's sugar output slumps
Verisk Maplecroft, a risk consultancy, warns that erratic weather and the fallout from the Iran war could heighten food security risks in Asia and may lead to social unrest and political instability in vulnerable countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines. In a report published on 17 September, it said the Iran war has affected the supply of fuel and fertiliser, key inputs for the agricultural sector, while extreme weather from a strong El Niño is also hitting farm output in several Asian countries. Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, is battling hard-to-control wildfires that are disrupting harvests, while India, the world's largest rice exporter, has seen monsoon rainfall 15% below normal. Thailand, meanwhile, is likely to see a sharp drop in sugar output and remains heavily dependent on energy and fertiliser imports, while facing pressure from farmers' debt burdens ahead of the next planting season. Data from Verisk Maplecroft's food security index shows that more than half of the countries at high or critical risk on food security are also in the two highest-risk groups on its civil unrest forecast index, including India, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Indonesia. Protests have already broken out in the Philippines and Indonesia in recent weeks, and Verisk Maplecroft warns that if pressure from food prices and supplies intensifies and governments are seen as responding ineffectively, it could lead to unrest and political instability in these high-risk countries. In countries already facing conflict, such as Afghanistan and Myanmar, a food shock could increase the risk of a humanitarian crisis.
Jefferies Flags Six Consumer Stocks at Risk From Super El Niño
Jefferies warned that six consumer stocks could be disrupted by a Super El Niño this year and into 2027, part of a larger multi-sector list of names the firm identified as at risk. Current forecasts suggest the 2026-27 El Niño may be the strongest in modern history, and the firm noted that, unlike most climate risks, El Niño is highly trackable months in advance, giving investors an opportunity to identify economic consequences before they fully materialize. Analyst Scott Marks said Hershey carries concentrated cocoa exposure through its core U.S. chocolate portfolio and has built its 2027 margin recovery plan around expected cocoa deflation, warning that a Super El Niño driving a hotter, drier West African 2026/27 crop would undercut the central pillar of that recovery story. J.M. Smucker is exposed through its coffee portfolio, with sourcing potentially impacted for Brazilian arabica and Vietnamese and Indonesian robusta, while Mondelez International faces El Niño exposure through cocoa, with roughly 60% of supply in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, where strong events historically turn hotter and drier heading into the November-January harvest. Analyst Pedro Baptista noted PriceSmart derives approximately 11% of sales from Colombia and also operates across Central America, and analyst Anne Ling said Yum China could see extreme rainfall, flooding and adverse weather temporarily reduce dine-in traffic and disrupt logistics and delivery efficiency, while analyst Alex Wright highlighted that a sharp rise in sweetener costs could pressure margins at Coca-Cola FEMSA if cost increases outpace pricing actions.
USDA Points to Higher Soybean Output, Pushing CBOT Grains Lower Across the Board
Grain futures on the CBOT closed lower across the board on Friday, September 11, led by soybean contracts, which fell more than 2.6% and dropped below the 13-dollar-per-bushel level, after the US Department of Agriculture, or USDA, projected higher output. November-delivery soybeans fell 35.75 cents, or 2.68%, to close at 12.9650 dollars per bushel, while December-delivery corn fell 3.50 cents to close at 5.3025 dollars per bushel, and December-delivery wheat fell 16 cents, or 2.16%, to close at 7.2525 dollars per bushel. The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, or WASDE, said 2026 soybean production would come in at 4.54 billion bushels with a yield of 52.8 bushels per acre, above the August estimates of 4.52 billion bushels and 52.7 bushels respectively. At the same time, the USDA estimated US corn exports for the 2026/2027 marketing year at 1.93 million tons, above the upper end of the 700,000-ton to 1.7-million-ton range forecast by analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Soybean exports were put at 2.64 million tons, above analyst expectations, while wheat exports were 194,200 tons, below what analysts had forecast. The USDA also cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 3 million tons to 43 million tons, and lowered Ukraine's by 1 million tons to 12.5 million tons. Analysts at StoneX said the downgrades reflected that supply chains remain under pressure from intensifying conflict between the two countries.
El Niño Slashes India's Sugar Output, Risking 2-3 Million Tonne Imports as Prices Surge 30%
India's sugar output is likely to fall to around 29-31 million tonnes next season, as dry weather driven by El Niño threatens the harvest due to begin next month, compared with an estimated 31 million tonnes in the current season according to the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association. A Bloomberg survey of 11 traders, analysts and sugar mill operators indicates India may need to import 2-3 million tonnes of sugar next year, after current import quotas are used up. Klaudiu Kofrik, principal analyst at Covrig Analytics, expects India may begin additional imports as early as July next year. The International Sugar Organization warned in May that the global sugar market could face a deficit of about 260,000 tonnes. India's monsoon rainfall, crucial for sugarcane cultivation, has been about 15% below normal. Those expectations have pushed raw sugar futures in New York up about 30% since the start of the year, and India last month allowed sugar mills and refineries to import raw sugar duty-free, while setting stock-holding limits for traders and large users. Ashwini Srivastava, joint secretary for sugar at India's Food Ministry, said authorities will monitor sugar prices closely and have begun tracking production data on a monthly basis.
Google and Mitti Labs Sign Five-Year Rice Methane Carbon Credit Deal
Mitti Labs has announced a five-year carbon credit agreement with Google to scale climate-smart agriculture across 100,000 hectares of smallholder rice farms in India, delivering one million high-integrity credits to Google by 2030 in what the company calls the largest rice methane offtake to date. The partnership will transition over 70,000 farmers to water and methane-savings irrigation practices, aiming to eliminate 3M tons of near-term warming impact, measured as GWP20 and equivalent to 1M tons of GWP100 impact, while conserving billions of gallons of water across critical regional basins. Rice paddies continuously flooded under traditional practices account for more than 10% of global methane emissions, and Mitti Labs says its model cuts up to 50% of methane emissions from rice fields and reduces irrigation volumes by close to 40% while maintaining rice yields. The partnership is projected to deliver billions of liters of water savings across India, equivalent to Bengaluru's annual supply for three years, and Mitti Labs will use Google's support to expand its NASA-supported GeoAI platform, which fuses satellite radar data with field-collected ground truth at the resolution of individual smallholder plots. Kate Brandt, Chief Sustainability Officer at Google, said the company is committed to finding solutions that neutralize warming across both the near and long term, while Mitti Labs co-founder Xavier Laguarta called the partnership a powerful accelerator of its mission to reduce emissions, save water, and strengthen the livelihoods of the 150 million smallholder farmers who grow rice.
OCBC warns Thailand faces highest inflation risk from El Niño in ASEAN
OCBC Group Research expects the El Niño phenomenon to expose ASEAN countries to greater inflation risk than to an economic slowdown, with higher prices for rice, wheat, corn and vegetable oils set to be key factors weighing on their economies. Lavanya Venkateswaran, a senior economist for ASEAN and India affairs at OCBC, said in a report published on September 9 that the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand are the ASEAN countries at high risk from El Niño, while Malaysia and Vietnam face significant risk as well, though of a more concentrated kind. She said that apart from Thailand and Vietnam, most major economies in the region are net rice importers, leaving the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia exposed to terms-of-trade effects from higher rice prices, and noted that most of the ASEAN-6 are large net importers of grains, making them especially vulnerable to imported inflation pressures when wheat and corn prices rise on world markets. The impact on economic growth is expected to be concentrated in the agricultural sector, with Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, which have large agricultural sectors, vulnerable to lost output and lower rural farm incomes, while agricultural exporters such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam may receive some offset from higher commodity export earnings.
Krungsri turns bullish on agriculture sector, top picks for El Niño theme: TVO, STA, NER
Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited disclosed that its research division has raised its investment weighting for the agriculture and food sector to Bullish, reflecting Buy ratings on most stocks in the group. It identified TVO, STA and NER as the biggest beneficiaries of this El Niño theme, and upgraded TVO to Buy with a 2027 forecast target price of 36.00 baht, from Neutral at 31.00 baht. STA and NER remain rated Buy on expectations that rubber prices will stay elevated longer than the phenomenon itself. TFG remains a fundamental Top pick with a target price of 14.20 baht, supported by its retail branch expansion plan, cost locking through the third quarter of 2027, and a dividend yield of about 8% per year paid quarterly, which is not driven by the El Niño theme. Meanwhile, CPC and NCEP assess a more than 90% chance of a Very strong El Niño occurring between September 2026 and January 2027, and put the odds at 69% that the October to December 2026 period will be more severe than any El Niño since 1950. Impacts vary by product category. The USDA expects global soybean output in 2026/27F to reach a record 442.3 million tonnes, while global palm oil stocks have a stocks-to-use ratio of 18.3%, the lowest in 10 years, and global rubber supply is shrinking as Indonesia's output falls from 2.0 million tonnes in 2025 to 1.5 million tonnes in 2026F. Feed costs will begin to affect CPF, GFPT and TFG from the fourth quarter of 2027 onward.
August global average temperature hits record high, Copernicus Climate Change Service reports
The European Union's weather information agency, the Copernicus Climate Change Service, announced on the 10th that the global average temperature this August reached 16.96 degrees, the highest ever recorded for the month of August. This ties with July 2023 as the highest ever recorded across all months. The global average temperature in August was 1.65 degrees above the pre-industrial average, and it was the first time since last November that the monthly temperature rise exceeded 1.5 degrees. In Western Europe, the average temperature from June to August surpassed the record heat of 2003, making it the hottest summer on record, with severe droughts occurring in France, the United Kingdom and elsewhere, and the flow of major rivers such as the Rhine and the Danube falling to unusually low levels. The average temperature across Europe this summer was the third highest on record. The average sea surface temperature in August for ocean areas excluding the regions around the North and South Poles reached 21.07 degrees, setting a new record high for that month, and the El Niño phenomenon is strengthening near the equator in the Pacific, with the possibility that it could become one of the strongest on record.
UK food inflation expected to exceed 6% next year, industry body FDF says
The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) said on the 9th that it expects UK food inflation to rise to nearly 4% by the end of the year and to exceed 6% by the middle of next year. The forecast reflects the ongoing effects of the war between the United States and Iran, drought in Europe, and the El Niño phenomenon. The FDF projected that food and non-alcoholic drink price growth in December of this year would be 3.9% year on year, a sharp downward revision from its previous forecast of just under 10%, but it expects prices to keep rising next year and to peak at 6.4% in July next year. Chief Executive Karen Betts noted that food and drink manufacturers have kept food prices as low as possible during the energy crisis that has persisted since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but said this cannot continue indefinitely. She added that with energy, logistics, and packaging costs remaining high, combined with this summer's intense heat, food prices are expected to rise through the end of the year and to continue rising into next year. According to the FDF, food inflation is expected to remain well above its historical average in the second half of 2027, and while the peak will be lower than forecast in April, the flat trend is likely to be prolonged. According to the UK Office for National Statistics, food and drink inflation fell to 1.3% in July, the lowest level since August 2024. The UK consumer price index rose 2.9% in July, and the Bank of England forecasts that food inflation will reach 3.5% by December and that CPI growth will accelerate to 3.1%.
Heat of the 'Plus 2°C Era' Hits Japan's Dining Tables, Affecting Production, Logistics, and Prices
In the summer of 2025, Japan's average temperature was 2.36°C above the normal, marking the highest since records began in 1898, and the third consecutive year of record highs. This extreme heat has damaged crops and livestock, leading to reduced supplies and higher prices for eggs, rice, and vegetables. For example, in Ibaraki Prefecture, egg production rates have dropped by 10-20%, and the ratio of top-grade Koshihikari rice from Niigata Prefecture has fallen to just a few percent. According to Teikoku Databank, the average price of a curry rice meal has hit a record high of 365 yen, with an index of 142.6 compared to the 20-year average. If temperatures continue to rise, a plate of curry rice could cost around 500 yen by the 2040s, prompting consumers to consider new rice varieties and adjust storage methods.
Citi Raises Corn, Soybean and Wheat Price Targets on El Niño Risks
Citi has raised its price forecasts for corn, soybeans and wheat, citing the strengthening Super El Niño as its highest-conviction agricultural market risk heading into late 2026 and early 2027. The bank lifted its three-month corn target to $5.40 per bushel and its 12-month forecast to $5.90 per bushel, while soybean targets rose to $12.75 for three months and $13.25 for 12 months, and wheat targets increased to $7.25 and $7.75 respectively. The revisions follow NOAA's August 2026 update assigning a more than 90% probability to a very strong El Niño event and a 69% chance that October through December conditions will surpass every El Niño episode recorded since 1950. Citi identified palm oil, robusta coffee, rice, sugar, cocoa and Australian wheat as among the commodities most exposed, with the greatest risks concentrated in Australia, India, Southeast Asia and parts of Brazil. The bank also noted that lower palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia could boost demand for soybean oil, adding further upward pressure to soybean prices.
Global funds begin enforcing TNFD, moving beyond carbon tunnel vision
Institutional investors worldwide are starting to enforce the TNFD framework to assess nature and biodiversity risks, rather than looking only at greenhouse gas emissions through carbon tunnel vision. Multinational companies and retailers in Europe and America are beginning to set conditions for purchasing goods that do not harm ecosystems. If suppliers are found to be discharging wastewater or clearing forests, they may have credit lines suspended or face immediate rejection of their goods. One example is a Thai processed food exporter that nearly lost a Scandinavian customer because its fruit orchards used chemicals that damaged topsoil. But when IoT soil sensors and AI drones were used to spray biological agents instead of chemicals, the topsoil recovered within one season, and the customer agreed to pay above-market prices to place the products in the Nature Positive category, which is gaining popularity among Gen Z consumers in Europe.
JPMorgan fertilizer warning misread as 12.3% grocery spike
A JPMorgan fertilizer analysis recirculating this week has been paired with a 12.3% figure that is not a forecast but the upper bound of a USDA 95% prediction interval for 2027 grocery prices. The USDA's actual midpoint forecast is 2.9%, with a lower bound of negative 5.6%, and the agency says discussions should focus on the midpoint. JPMorgan senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi said rising fertilizer prices could lift global food inflation temporarily to 4-5%, while the bank's April 7 research noted nitrogen benchmarks jumped 25% to 50% after the Strait of Hormuz closure. Retail urea has since fallen about 21% from its May peak to $678 a ton in early August, and the current grocery inflation story is concentrated in beef, with USDA forecasting a 10.7% rise in 2026, while egg prices are projected to fall 30.7% this year.
Kasikorn Research Center says Thai businesses risk growing below 2%
Kasikorn Research Center assesses that the Thai economy in the period ahead could grow below 2%, with 2026 expected at around 2% amid pressure from stricter environmental regulations, natural disasters, and geopolitical conflicts. Ms. Kaewalin Wangpichayasuk, Deputy Managing Director, said Thai businesses face three main risks: the European Union's CBAM measures affecting steel and aluminium, drought and flash floods from a super El Niño pressuring agricultural output, and Middle East conflicts plus trade wars making transport and energy more expensive. Manufacturing and processed agriculture are the most worrying sectors, while clean energy, health, technology, and FDI businesses have growth opportunities. The government should monitor and issue warnings, reduce hidden costs, and design targeted policies to help entrepreneurs adapt.
JPMorgan warns a global food crisis could erupt next year; A-share agricultural sector surges across the board
JPMorgan recently issued a report warning that the next global food crisis may be brewing and could erupt next year. A-share agricultural stocks responded with broad gains on August 17, with Jinjian Rice hitting the daily limit up, and Qiule Seed, Shennong Seed, Kangnong Seed, Dunhuang Seed, and Shenzhen Cereals Holdings following higher. The report expects global food price inflation to rise from 2.8 percent in the first half of this year to 5 percent in the first half of next year. It also argues that Middle East conflict has disrupted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and that a strong El Niño could reduce crop yields. The combination of these factors will hit agricultural production and keep food prices elevated through the first half of 2027. Nora Szentivanyi, the economist who led the research, said global crop prices have not yet peaked because transport of agricultural inputs such as fertiliser has been affected. This year's shock to global energy supply could double the impact of a super El Niño on food prices. The report also notes that agriculture in parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America is more sensitive to weather changes, and food accounts for a higher share of household consumption there. Emerging market economies will be hit hardest by this shock. Last year, about 645 million people worldwide faced hunger, and about 2.1 billion people faced moderate or severe food insecurity, accounting for 25.8 percent of the global population.
Wheat futures surged across all three U.S. exchanges after Ukrainian drone strikes halted operations at Russia's Novorossiysk port and Russia retaliated by striking a vessel in Ukraine's Odesa port. Chicago SRW contracts rose 16 to 18 1/4 cents, KC HRW futures gained 22 to 23 cents, and MPLS spring wheat added 13 to 14 cents. The USDA's NASS Crop Production report pegged 2026 wheat output at 1.531 billion bushels, down 5 million bushels from July, while WASDE data showed 2026/27 ending stocks at 717 million bushels, also down 5 million bushels. World ending stocks were raised by 0.41 million metric tons to 273.25 million metric tons, with increases for Canada and Ukraine offsetting a cut for the EU. Russian wheat exports were trimmed by 1.5 million metric tons and Ukraine's by 0.5 million metric tons.
England declares 71.3% of its area in drought after lowest rainfall in 190 years
The National Drought Group of England declared additional areas to be in drought on Monday, bringing the total to 71.3% of England now facing flash drought. This follows July rainfall being the lowest in 190 years, and August rainfall so far at only 5% of expected levels. Around 45 million people live in drought-affected areas, and more than 27 million are under water restriction measures. The Water Minister said the government recognises the hardship, especially the impact on farmers from climate change, which is causing more frequent floods and droughts.
South Korea heatwave pushes spinach prices up 152%, livestock and fish die in large numbers
The Korea Agro-Fisheries and Food Trade Corporation has reported that agricultural product prices in South Korea have risen after the country faced a prolonged severe heatwave. Retail spinach prices surged 152.3% month-on-month, a pack of 10 cucumbers rose 54.8%, and lettuce increased 41.7% over the same period. South Korea's Ministry of Agriculture stated that the intense and extended hot weather is pressuring yields, especially for leafy greens that thrive in cool conditions. Additionally, 901,602 livestock have died from the heat as of August 7, with around 95% being poultry including chickens and ducks. Meanwhile, aquaculture farms have seen 864,497 fish die after sea temperatures rose. The National Federation of Fisheries Cooperatives said the average auction price for flounder was 22,300 won per kilogram during July 27 to August 1, up 2.29% week-on-week and up 13.2% year-on-year. Operators estimate that seafood prices could rise further next month because sea temperatures typically fall more slowly than land temperatures. The impact of warm seawater is expected to become more apparent in September, with flounder and grouper prices likely to remain high. The heat affecting food production is also adding inflationary pressure, prompting the South Korean government to accelerate measures to manage prices, including increasing chicken meat imports and expanding discount programs for fishery products at retail stores.
FAO World Food Price Index hits three-and-a-half-year high in July
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's World Food Price Index for July rose to 131.1 points from 130.3 points in June, reaching its highest level since January 2023. Adverse weather, along with escalating conflicts in the Gulf region and the Black Sea, pushed up agricultural commodity prices. Cereal prices rose 3.4 percent month-on-month, with wheat prices up 5.8 percent. Vegetable oil prices increased 2 percent to their highest since June 2022, and sugar prices gained 5.6 percent. Meanwhile, meat prices fell 2.8 percent from a record high in June, and dairy prices dipped 0.7 percent.
PCE aims to become Thailand's first oil palm operator to achieve Net Zero
Petcharat Sriwichai Enterprise Public Company Limited, or PCE, has announced a strategy to drive a sustainable oil palm supply chain, targeting becoming the first operator in the industry to achieve carbon neutrality and net zero. It is collaborating with Prince of Songkla University and the Southern Science Park to develop a network of over 3,800 smallholder farmers under RSPO standards, while expanding certified area to more than 100,000 rai by 2027. In addition, it aims to develop carbon credits with farmers to achieve certification of no less than 150,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. The Nikhom Sahakon Phanom oil palm large-scale plot community enterprise, which is part of this network, has become the first group in Thailand to be registered under the T-VER standard and has already been certified for over 50,469 tonnes of carbon credits per year. These actions will help mitigate risks from the European Union's CBAM measures and prepare for Thailand's future climate laws.
Envision Delivers First Low-Carbon Ammonia Environmental Attribute Certificates to PepsiCo APAC
Envision Energy has delivered the first 1,000 tonnes of low-carbon ammonia environmental attribute certificates to PepsiCo APAC under a purchase agreement announced on July 30, 2026. The certificates, issued and managed through S3 Markets' environmental attribute registry, are associated with an estimated emissions reduction opportunity of approximately 5,000 tonnes CO2 equivalent. From 2026 to 2030, Envision will supply PepsiCo APAC with certificates linked to low-carbon ammonia produced at its Chifeng Net Zero Industrial Park, the world's largest green hydrogen project, to support PepsiCo APAC's Scope 3 emissions reduction efforts in its agricultural supply chain. The transaction uses a Book & Claim model that decouples physical ammonia from its environmental attributes, allowing traceable certificates to be allocated without long-distance transport. This approach aims to address emissions from fertilizer production, a significant source of carbon in the food and consumer goods value chain.
ONWR Confirms Sufficient Water Reserves to Cope with Strong El Niño Late Next Year
The Office of the National Water Resources has confirmed that there is sufficient water supply for water management this year, even though the Meteorological Department forecasts that El Niño will intensify to a very strong level from October to December 2026. The four main dams in the Chao Phraya River Basin had a combined usable water volume of 17.245 billion cubic meters as of November 1, 2025, which is higher than the 4.247 billion cubic meters recorded during the El Niño period in 2015. It is projected that as of November 1, 2026, the usable water volume will be 12.105 billion cubic meters. The ONWR has also instructed all agencies to prepare without complacency, especially in areas outside irrigation zones, while urging farmers to cultivate according to plans and calling on all sectors to conserve water. At the same time, it has ordered inspections of waterway obstructions to improve drainage efficiency in line with measures for the 2026 rainy season.
Walmart launches 40,000-acre regenerative agriculture program with General Mills and ADM
Walmart, General Mills, and ADM are collaborating on a new regenerative agriculture program covering 40,000 Midwest wheat acres. The initiative targets soil health, water quality, and carbon sequestration, and is designed as a model for broader industry change across food and retail supply chains. The program ties Walmart's shelf offerings to specific environmental outcomes, linking its retail scale to farm-level practices. For investors, this signals how the retailer is managing long-term supply reliability and environmental expectations simultaneously.
El Niño and High Oil Prices Could Push Global Inflation Up 0.3 Percentage Points in 2027, Says JPMorgan
Economists at JPMorgan Chase said on the 24th that the rapidly intensifying El Niño phenomenon combined with rising energy prices could push the global inflation rate up by 0.3 percentage points in 2027. According to their estimates, a super El Niño alone could lift global food inflation by about 0.7 percentage points at its peak, and factoring in the surge in energy prices from the Iran war, the impact could roughly double to 1.3 to 1.5 percentage points. If food inflation jumps to an annual rate of 5 percent in the first half of 2027, it would add 0.6 percentage points to global headline inflation and slow the pace of disinflation expected next year by 0.3 percentage points for the full year. They noted that emerging economies such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, Colombia, Taiwan, and South Korea would be hit particularly hard.
ADM Creates COO Role, Appoints Jeff Rowe, and Partners with General Mills and Walmart on Regenerative Agriculture
Archer-Daniels-Midland has created a new Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer role and appointed Jeff Rowe to the position, while also announcing a partnership with General Mills and Walmart to promote regenerative agriculture across 40,000 Midwest wheat acres. Rowe will oversee key operational and research and development functions across ADM. The stock, trading at $87.32, has returned 47.9% year to date and 60.2% over the past year. These moves highlight how ADM is organizing its operations and supply relationships, which may influence execution, risk profile, and positioning in agricultural and food supply chains.
Denali Offers U.S. Farmers Natural Fertilizer Saving Up to $246 Per Acre
Denali, the nation's largest food and organics recycler, is offering a natural fertilizer alternative that can save U.S. farmers up to $246 per acre compared to synthetic fertilizers, as nearly 70% of farmers reported they could not afford needed fertilizer this season. The company's analysis across three key agricultural regions shows savings of $244 per acre in Kansas, $236 per acre in Louisiana, and $246 per acre in Georgia, based on current market prices for nitrogen, phosphate, and potash. Denali transforms organic materials from food businesses into agricultural nutrients, providing a stable, cost-effective option that does not depend on global supply chains disrupted by events such as shipping issues through the Strait of Hormuz. During fall 2025 and spring 2026, Denali delivered approximately $100,000 in nutrient value to a 400-acre farm in northwest Tennessee. The company also produces animal feed, compost, and biofuel from inedible food.
General Mills, ADM, Walmart Partner to Accelerate Regenerative Agriculture Across 40,000 Midwest Wheat Acres
General Mills, ADM and Walmart have announced a strategic collaboration to accelerate regenerative agriculture across 40,000 Midwest wheat acres. The program focuses on key growing regions where General Mills sources wheat from ADM for products sold through Walmart and Sam's Club, with initial projects receiving technical assistance from American Farmland Trust and Ducks Unlimited. It builds on a 2023 commitment by General Mills and Walmart to advance regenerative agriculture across 600,000 shared acres by 2030, with programs already underway on more than 560,000 wheat acres in the U.S. ADM, which manages nearly 5 million regenerative acres globally, will facilitate on-the-ground support including financial incentives for practices like no-till and cover crops. The collaboration contributes to General Mills' goal of advancing regenerative agriculture on 1 million acres by 2030, Walmart's aim to protect or restore at least 50 million acres by 2030, and ADM's efforts to empower farmers on millions of acres.
Big Food failing to meet hype on regenerative agriculture
The FAIRR investor network reports a widening credibility gap in how the world's biggest food companies are implementing regenerative agriculture plans. Quantified regenerative agriculture targets have fallen from 35% of assessed companies in 2023 to 28%, and no company has set a pesticide reduction target despite more than half identifying reduced agrochemical inputs as a goal. Only Conagra Brands, Danone, Nestlé, and Sysco measure herbicide use in their programmes. While the share of companies measuring regenerative agriculture outcomes rose from 16% in 2023 to 54% in 2026, most measurement remains at the project level rather than company-wide, making it difficult for investors to assess scale and impact.
Agricultural Calcium Market to Reach $29.62 Billion by 2030
The global agricultural calcium market is projected to grow from USD 23.60 billion in 2025 to USD 29.62 billion by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate of 4.6%. Growth is driven by the shift toward sustainable and precision agriculture, global sustainability mandates for mineral inputs, and priorities in soil health management. The calcium carbonate segment is expected to dominate due to its abundance and cost-effectiveness, while field crops will lead application demand. South America is anticipated to hold a significant market share, with strong adoption in Brazil and Argentina. Key players include Yara International, Omya International AG, Sibelco, and Carmeuse.
Syngenta Group China Partners With McDonald’s and McCain for a More Sustainable Potato Supply Chain
Syngenta Group China has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with McDonald’s China and McCain China to build a more resilient and sustainable potato supply chain in China. The agreement was announced at the 4th China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing. Under the pilot framework, Syngenta Group China will explore a science-based potato planting approach that addresses soil health, customized crop stewardship, precision fertigation, integrated pest management, intelligent field monitoring, and sustainable agricultural practices. The initiative draws on the company’s full suite of agronomic inputs, digital farming solutions, and its nationwide network of MAP technical service centers. The three parties aim to transform local potato farming, supply, and processing through scaling sustainable practices and smart technologies.
Canada food retail prices rise 4.3% in May, outpacing inflation for 16th straight month
Food purchased from stores in Canada rose 4.3% year over year in May, up from 3.8% in April, marking the 16th consecutive month that food retail inflation has outpaced headline consumer price growth. Fresh fruit prices climbed 5.3% after a 0.5% decline in April, driven by berries and grapes, while fresh vegetable prices surged 9% following a 4.1% increase, with tomato prices jumping more than 45% due to supply contractions from poor weather in Mexico and reduced acreage after US tariffs. The overall Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% in May, up from 2.8% in April, partly because of higher fuel costs. Canada's Competition Bureau has launched a review of competition across the food-and-drinks supply chain, examining production and processing, transport and distribution, and retail pricing practices, with a final report expected in the first half of next year.