Bloom Energy Corp

Plug Power reported a second-quarter 2026 net loss of approximately $190.1 million, narrower than the $228.7 million loss in the year-ago quarter, as its gross margin improved to negative 0.9% from negative 30.7%. For the first six months of 2026, the company posted a net loss of approximately $436.1 million and a gross margin of negative 6.8%, compared with negative 41.4% a year earlier. The company said the margin improvement came from enhanced pricing, better stack reliability, increased labor utilization and lower labor and overhead costs, while its Power Purchase Agreements gross loss improved to negative 30% from negative 91.6%. Plug Power's 2026 restructuring plan, initiated in January, was completed in the second quarter, with restructuring costs falling to $0.2 million from $3 million a year ago. Among peers, Bloom Energy's gross margin expanded 670 basis points to 33.4% on a 232% rise in gross profit, while Flux Power Holdings reported a gross margin increase of 10 basis points.

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on September 4, 2026, that Bloom Energy and Illumina are joining the S&P 500 benchmark, with the changes taking effect before trading opens on September 21, 2026, replacing Molson Coors, The Trade Desk, and Builders FirstSource. Bloom Energy arrives after product revenue jumped 215% last quarter on hyperscaler demand for onsite fuel-cell capacity, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion. Illumina returns to the index with second-quarter revenue up 9% and raised EPS guidance of $5.30 to $5.40, though management flagged ongoing China and tariff headwinds. The swap barely moves returns for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, since new S&P 500 entrants typically begin well under a tenth of a percent of the index, while Vanguard's June 30, 2026 factsheet showed 38% of the fund in its ten largest holdings, including 8% in NVIDIA alone. The composition shift tilts the index toward growth at the margin, with Bloom carrying a beta of 3.81 and a forward P/E of 57x and Illumina at a forward P/E of 34x, while the departing Molson Coors trades at 7x forward earnings with a 4.9% dividend yield and Builders FirstSource at 14x.

Situational Awareness, the hedge fund formed by ex-OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, is buying call options on Advanced Micro Devices, Bloom Energy, CoreWeave, SK Hynix and SanDisk, returning to the strategy that nearly sank it earlier this year. The fund has bought hundreds of millions of dollars in option premiums, according to GuruFocus. Situational Awareness generated a 439% net return from the beginning of the year through June 30, briefly making it one of the best-performing large funds of 2026, but it was operating at around four times leverage when AI stocks turned in July, and its portfolio declined by about 67 percent, forcing it to sell off its AI assets. Citadel swooped in a day later to buy much of the public-equity holdings. The new stock picks span processors, cloud computing, memory and electricity, some of the main bottlenecks in the AI buildout.

The global AI data center power infrastructure market was valued at USD 32.60 Billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 244.10 Billion by 2035, a 22.3% CAGR from 2026 to 2035, according to SNS Insider. Within that total, the U.S. market alone was estimated at USD 13.49 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 97.00 billion by 2035, a roughly 21.8% CAGR, while North America is the largest region and Asia Pacific is the fastest growing at a 26.90% CAGR, with China accounting for around 33.50% of the Asia Pacific market in 2025. By component, UPS Systems held the largest share at 29% in 2025, with Power Distribution Units the fastest growing; by power capacity, the above 20 MW segment took 41% of the market while 10-20 MW grew fastest; hyperscale data centers held 55% by data center type and Cloud Service Providers & Hyperscalers 59% by end user, with Government & Defense the fastest-growing end user. The report cites 2026 deals including Bloom Energy's master services agreement with Oracle for up to 2.8 gigawatts of solid oxide fuel cell capacity, expanded from an earlier 1.2-gigawatt agreement, and Eaton's nearly 20 pilot programs for medium-voltage solid-state transformer technology supporting 800-volt DC distribution, with hyperscaler orders expected in the second half of 2026 and shipments planned for late 2027. Key players named include Schneider Electric SE, Vertiv Holdings Co., Eaton Corporation plc, ABB Ltd, Delta Electronics, Inc., Legrand SA, Siemens AG, Hitachi Energy Ltd, Caterpillar Inc., Cummins Inc., Generac Holdings Inc., Rolls-Royce Power Systems AG, Toshiba International Corporation, Mitsubishi Electric Corporation, Socomec Group, Piller Power Systems Inc., Rittal GmbH & Co. KG, Huawei Digital Power Technologies Co., Ltd., Bloom Energy Corporation and EnerSys.

Oracle's New Mexico data center, part of its Stargate buildout with OpenAI, has been delayed after the New Mexico State Land Office twice denied a permit for a natural gas pipeline needed to power the site, pushing its in-service date to February 2027. On the company's first-quarter earnings call, co-CEO Clay Magouyrk said assuming every project will meet its deadline is a bad plan, adding that Oracle's data center sites typically come online in phases over several quarters rather than all at once, so a delay at one location does not create a sudden, concentrated hit to revenue in any single quarter. Magouyrk said construction remains definitely on track, with Oracle turning to Bloom Energy fuel cells for on-site power instead of waiting on the pipeline. Oracle reported first-quarter earnings of $1.92 per share, beating the analyst consensus estimate of $1.74 by 10.34%, on revenue of $19.35 billion, above the Street estimate of $19.14 billion. The company raised its fiscal adjusted EPS guidance to $8.10 from $8.05, versus the $8.07 analyst estimate, and now expects full-year revenue of more than $90 billion, above the $89.79 billion estimate.

Bloom Energy reported record quarterly revenue of $1.07 billion, surpassing the $1 billion milestone for the first time and marking a 166% year-over-year increase, driven by soaring demand for its solid-oxide fuel cell systems from major U.S. hyperscalers and AI data center operators seeking reliable on-site power. The results arrive as the AI spending race accelerated in the Q2 earnings season, with Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta reporting roughly $170 billion in capital expenditures: Microsoft reported $41 billion of CapEx, Alphabet spent $44.9 billion and raised its full-year CapEx forecast, Meta deployed $31.1 billion while maintaining its outlook, and Amazon led the group with $54.2 billion in property and equipment purchases. Bloom Energy is also set to join the S&P 500 in the next quarterly rebalancing near the end of September, a major positive for the stock's near-term action as index funds adjust their portfolios around the rebalance. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), with EPS expectations remaining on a bullish trajectory across the board.

Bloom Energy has been officially named to join the benchmark S&P 500 index, a change effective before the market open on Sept. 21, 2026, and its stock rallied as much as 9.6% on Sept. 8 following the announcement. The company reported record revenues of $1.07 billion in the second quarter of 2026, a 166% year-over-year increase, driven by a 215% surge in product revenues, fueled by AI data center power demand. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion, reflecting 100% growth at the midpoint, supported by a partnership with Oracle for up to 2.8 gigawatts of fuel cell capacity and a fivefold expansion of its funding framework with Brookfield Asset Management to $25 billion. The short-term price target from 22 analysts is $274.86, implying about 8.70% upside. Given Bloom Energy's high valuation with a price-to-earnings ratio of 67.99 versus the S&P 500's 20.09, ETFs offer a diversified way to gain exposure, including the Global X Hydrogen ETF, which holds Bloom Energy at 17.21% weight, the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF at 8.51%, and the Global X U.S. Electrification ETF at 5.53%.

Bloom Energy delivered power to an Oracle data center in just 55 days, underscoring the speed advantage that has made its fuel cells a critical bridge for AI infrastructure. The company's modular systems, which convert natural gas to electricity without particulate pollutants, can be deployed quickly while data centers wait for grid connections, and also provide backup power for near-100% uptime. Revenue surged 166% year over year last quarter to over $1 billion, beating analyst estimates, and its backlog reached $20 billion at the end of 2025, with $14 billion from future services revenue. However, the stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 22, and a slowdown in data center build-out could pressure shares despite long-term contracts.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's spouse purchased up to $12 million in Bloom Energy (BE) in late July, weeks before the company's addition to the S&P 500 sent shares surging, with the stock now up 214% year-to-date. The purchases, disclosed in an SEC filing on August 21, 2026, were made in four lots across two days, with the low end of the range totaling $3 million. Bloom Energy has repositioned as a key supplier of onsite power for AI data centers, reporting Q2 FY2026 revenue of $1.07 billion, up 165.5% year over year, and raising full-year guidance to $3.90-$4.20 billion. Broadcom (AVGO) and AMD posted triple-digit AI revenue growth, validating the hyperscaler power demand that made Bloom Energy the standard for onsite AI power. Meanwhile, Bloom directors sold shares at prices ranging from $239 to $250, and a securities class action lead plaintiff deadline is set for September 28, 2026.

Bloom Energy is set to join the S&P 500 before the open on September 21, while The Trade Desk is being demoted to the S&P SmallCap 600, a reshuffle that is driving mechanical index-fund flows. Bloom Energy shares surged 8% to $274.18 in Tuesday trading, while Trade Desk stock slipped 2% to $14.13. UBS analyst Manav Gupta raised his price target on Bloom Energy to $325, citing the index inclusion and strong Q2 results, where revenue jumped 165.5% to $1.07 billion. The company also expanded its Brookfield financing framework from $5 billion to $25 billion and raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion. Trade Desk's demotion follows a weak Q2 with only 3% revenue growth, and the stock is down 63% year to date, with plans to cut 15% of its workforce. Fuel cell peers Plug Power and FuelCell Energy are not part of the reshuffle and do not receive the same index-fund support.

Roivant Sciences shares rallied 24% after the pharma company reported positive Phase 2 trial results for its subsidiary Pulmovant's mosliciguat, which showed a clinically meaningful and statistically significant reduction in pulmonary vascular resistance in patients with pulmonary hypertension and interstitial lung disease. Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin edged up 0.7% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy, citing underappreciated earnings growth potential. Novartis tumbled 12% after its del-desiran drug failed to show significant improvement in a Phase 3 trial for myotonic dystrophy type 1. Peloton Interactive slid more than 4% following a Morgan Stanley downgrade to underweight, citing structural headwinds in fitness. Boston Scientific slipped over 2% after warning that a recent cyberattack likely impacted its 2026 sales and profit targets. Bloom Energy rose over 6% as it prepares to join the S&P 500 on Sept. 21, having gained about 190% this year on the AI data center buildout.

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Bloom Energy, Everpure, and Illumina will join the S&P 500 before trading begins Monday, September 21, replacing Molson Coors Beverage, Trade Desk, and Builders FirstSource. Bloom Energy, the largest incoming company with a market capitalization of $74 billion, supplies fuel-cell systems for data centers and industrial facilities, offering exposure to AI-driven power demand. Everpure provides data-storage systems and software, while Illumina makes gene-sequencing tools. All three stocks have gained at least 40% in 2026. Index funds and ETFs tracking the benchmark must buy the new constituents and sell the departing companies, potentially boosting volume and price moves near the effective date. A parallel S&P 100 reshuffle will add Dell, Palo Alto Networks, Arista Networks, and SanDisk, while removing Honeywell Aerospace, Nike, Simon Property Group, and Colgate-Palmolive.

Brookfield Asset Management and Bloom Energy have expanded their AI infrastructure framework from $5 billion to as much as $25 billion, aiming to address data-center electricity bottlenecks. Under the arrangement, Brookfield can finance eligible deployments through its investment vehicles, while Bloom supplies fuel-cell systems that generate power on-site. The framework's ceiling, however, does not guarantee committed revenue; projects must still meet underwriting criteria and customer contracts. Hedge funds showed mixed positioning in the second quarter, with Brookfield ownership falling to 32 funds from 39, while Bloom ownership rose to 116 funds from 91. As of August 14, 18.3 million Bloom shares were sold short, representing 6.39% of the float. The partnership assigns different risks to each company, but both face the challenge of converting a headline maximum into funded assets over time.

Nancy Pelosi's household disclosed a significant AI infrastructure trade, with her husband Paul Pelosi buying 10,000 shares of Bloom Energy on July 24 and 5,000 more on July 28, plus 200 call options with a $100 strike expiring in June 2027, totaling several million dollars. The purchase coincided with Bloom's record second-quarter revenue of $1.065 billion, up 165.5% year over year, and management raised full-year guidance to $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion. Nvidia's projection of roughly 70% revenue growth for its next fiscal year reinforces the demand for Bloom's fuel-cell systems, which provide onsite power for data centers. However, the stock has already multiplied several times, and the trade is a household transaction, not evidence of special knowledge. Hedge fund holdings in Bloom rose to 116 from 91, with short interest at 6.39% of float.

Bloom Energy has emerged as Oracle's largest specialized power partner, securing a deal to supply up to 2.8 gigawatts of on-site fuel cell electricity for Oracle's expanding cloud and AI infrastructure. The agreement, which began with an initial 1.2 gigawatts, allows Bloom's natural gas-fueled power servers to be installed on-site in as little as 55 to 90 days, bypassing grid bottlenecks. In the second quarter, Bloom reported record revenue of $1.065 billion, up 166% year over year, and expects full-year revenue of $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion, a 100% increase over 2025. The company also turned profitable with earnings per share of $0.62, up from a loss of $0.18 a year ago, and gross margins expanded by 668 basis points to 33.4%. Beyond Oracle, Bloom has major customers including Equinix, which has installed over 100 megawatts of Bloom servers, and is expanding a partnership with Brookfield for $25 billion. Despite a high valuation, trading at roughly 290 times trailing earnings, the fuel cell market is projected to grow 20% annually to $28.4 billion by 2031.

Evercore ISI analyst Nicholas Amicucci maintains a Street-high $350 price target on Bloom Energy, implying roughly 71.5% upside from the stock's current $204.02 level. Bloom's Q2 FY2026 revenue surged 165.52% year over year to $1.065 billion, beating estimates by 28.82%, while non-GAAP EPS of $0.78 topped the $0.4066 consensus. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion, about 100% growth at the midpoint. The stock has fallen about 42% from its 52-week high of $351.28, including a 12.12% drop in the past week, despite the strong results. Evercore's bull case rests on Bloom's speed-to-power advantage for data centers, expansion into rack manufacturing and semiconductor testing, and capital validation from Brookfield's expanded $25 billion financing shelf plus a separate $2.6 billion facility anchored by Oaktree, MUFG, and Morgan Stanley.

Navitas Semiconductor agreed to acquire power management solutions provider Claros in a deal valued at up to approximately $232.8 million, sending its shares up 6% on Tuesday. The transaction includes about $216 million payable at closing in cash and Navitas Class A shares, with the remainder tied to business milestones over the following two years. Claros specializes in vertical power delivery and integrated voltage regulator technology for next-generation AI data centers, and the acquisition is expected to more than double Navitas’ identified 2030 serviceable addressable market to over $8 billion. Elsewhere, Bloom Energy and Intel rose after a congressional disclosure showed Nancy Pelosi bought positions in both companies, including shares and long-dated call options. Grand Canyon Education fell 5% after placing CFO Daniel Bachus on paid administrative leave in connection with a government investigation into a non-employee third party’s trading in the company’s stock.

Bloom Energy shares have surged 136% so far in 2026 and over 344% in the past year as its on-site fuel cell systems gain traction with data centers that cannot wait for grid connections. The company generated about $2 billion in total revenue in 2025 and projects $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion for 2026, roughly doubling last year's figure. Bloom entered 2026 with a roughly $20 billion backlog, and CEO KR Sridhar said the backlog is growing faster than revenue. Analysts expect revenue to more than triple over the next two years, though manufacturing capacity could be a constraint.

U.S. refiners are posting record profits as global fuel shortages deepen, with Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66 among the biggest winners of the second-quarter earnings season. Marathon Petroleum, America's largest refiner, earned $5.14 billion in the second quarter, more than quadruple the $1.2 billion it made a year earlier, while diluted EPS jumped to $17.73 and revenue reached $52.34 billion. Valero Energy posted a record second-quarter profit of $3.7 billion, with adjusted earnings surging from $2.28 to $12.54 per share, and Phillips 66 saw second-quarter adjusted earnings jump nearly 300% year-over-year to $9.41 per share. Shares of Marathon Petroleum have gained 122.2% year-to-date, Valero Energy 113.3%, and Phillips 66 85.3%, far outpacing the S&P 500 Energy sector's 36% gain. Chevron also delivered its best quarter in six years with adjusted earnings of $12 billion, or $6.06 per share, while Bloom Energy's second-quarter revenue surged 167% year-over-year to a record $1.07 billion on demand from AI data centers.

Brookfield Asset Management CEO Bruce Flatt said the main constraint on AI growth is construction capacity, not investor money, during a CNBC panel discussion about the $500 billion AI financing plan. Flatt argued that the industry cannot build enough power or compute, and pointed to Brookfield's history in solar, wind, gas, data centers, and now compute alongside NVIDIA as evidence of its infrastructure expertise. He also noted Brookfield raised a record $77 billion last quarter, including its first AI-focused infrastructure fund, and has partnerships with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Bloom Energy, plus a US Energy Department-backed data center project in Kentucky expected to draw more than $100 billion in private investment. However, Brookfield's global head of AI infrastructure, Sikander Rashid, warned on the earnings call that some capital will inevitably be poorly allocated, citing the early-2000s fiber-optic boom, and Flatt acknowledged there is not yet a proven investment structure for such deals.

Nebius Group N.V. said it will use Bloom Energy Corporation's fuel-cell technology at its planned 300-megawatt AI data center in Vineland, New Jersey, sending Bloom Energy shares up 12.3% on Wednesday, Aug. 12. During Nebius's Q2 earnings call, Chief Communications Officer Tom Blackwell said the switch would significantly enhance the project from a community perspective, while Chief Product and Infrastructure Officer Andrey Korolenko said Bloom's fuel cells should be deployed quickly with no significant impact on the project timeline. The endorsement comes as the project faces permitting, zoning and community opposition over earlier plans for onsite gas generation, and Nebius now sees Bloom as a quieter, reliable, ultra-low-emission power solution while it seeks final approval for an amended site plan. Bloom Energy's market capitalization is $69.9 billion, and its shares remain up 457% over the past 52 weeks despite a 31% decline in July.

Bloom Energy CEO KR Sridhar said in the company's recent second-quarter report that all major U.S. hyperscalers and over a dozen U.S. neoclouds, AI labs, and colocation data center operators have validated and approved its power solutions for their AI factories, concluding that Bloom is now a standard for AI onsite power. Revenue grew 165.5% year over year to $1.06 billion during the quarter. The company's solid oxide fuel cell technology converts hydrogen, natural gas, or biogas into electricity, and Oracle more than doubled its requested electricity from Bloom Energy from 1.2 gigawatts to 2.8 gigawatts in April. However, the International Energy Administration reports coal and conventional natural gas remain the top two power sources for the world's AI data centers, and analysts' consensus 12-month target of $279.07 is 30% above the stock's present price.

Palantir, General Motors, and Bloom Energy have raised their guidance during the Q2 earnings season. General Motors posted adjusted EPS of $3.57 on sales of $48.0 billion, beating consensus estimates, and raised its full-year 2026 EBIT adjusted guidance for the second time this year along with its adjusted EPS guidance. Palantir's revenue surged 93% year-over-year to $1.94 billion, with total contract value closing at $3.4 billion, up 49% year-over-year, and it lifted its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion, reflecting 82% year-over-year growth. Bloom Energy reported record quarterly revenue of $1.07 billion, growing 166% year-over-year, driven by demand for its solid-oxide fuel cell systems from U.S. hyperscalers and AI data center operators, and raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion.

Bloom Energy is expanding its partnership with MiTAC Computing Technology to deploy fuel cell microgrids at MiTEC's AI server manufacturing campus in Fremont, California, adding to an existing installation in San Jose. The deal highlights growing demand for onsite power beyond data centers, as AI hardware manufacturers face the same grid constraints. Bloom now has nearly two dozen AI infrastructure customers, representing about 250 megawatts of contracted capacity, up from zero two years ago. This is in addition to hundreds of megawatts already deployed at data centers, with recent strategic expansions including up to 2.8 gigawatts with Oracle and a fivefold increase to $25 billion with Brookfield Asset Management. The company is positioning its rapidly deployable fuel cells as a standard for AI onsite power across the broader infrastructure build-out.

Bloom Energy has received a Buy recommendation and a $243 price target from 24/7 Wall St., implying 11% upside from its current price of $218.32. The call follows a fourth consecutive earnings beat, with second-quarter revenue soaring 165% year over year to $1.065 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.78 nearly doubling estimates. CEO KR Sridhar highlighted validation from all major US hyperscalers and a $5 billion partnership with Brookfield, underpinning a $20 billion total backlog. The stock has rallied 151% year to date but pulled back 19% over the past month, while risks include a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 271 and pending litigation over scandium sourcing.

Bloom Energy's total backlog reached $20 billion at the start of 2026, with the company noting that new customers are not yet included and the backlog is growing faster than revenues. The product backlog rose 140% year over year to $6 billion, while the remaining $14 billion came from service contracts that generate annuity-like revenue. The services business has been profitable since 2024, and AI-driven electricity demand helped the company achieve profitability in the first two quarters of 2026. Despite the stock's nearly 500% gain over the past year, only aggressive growth investors with strong conviction in the AI story should consider buying after such a rapid price move.

Artificial intelligence data centers are increasingly adopting Bloom Energy's solid oxide fuel cells to overcome electricity supply bottlenecks. Real estate firm JLL forecasts AI data centers will need 200 gigawatts of power by 2030, double the current level, while utilities struggle to expand capacity fast enough. Bloom Energy's fuel cells can run on hydrogen, natural gas, or biogas, and can be installed in weeks rather than the months or years required for grid connections. The company reported quarterly revenue of just over $1.0 billion, up 165% from the second quarter of 2025, and earlier this year expanded its power supply deal with Oracle from 1.2 gigawatts to 2.8 gigawatts. The global hydrogen fuel cell market is projected to grow more than 20% annually through 2034, reaching over $27 billion per year.

Morgan Stanley projects a 38-gigawatt electricity gap for U.S. data centers, leaving up to an 11-gigawatt deficit through 2028 even after all practical solutions are deployed. The investment bank estimates that natural gas turbines could provide 15 to 20 gigawatts of that capacity, making GE Vernova the clearest beneficiary given its dominance in large-frame gas turbines and a multiyear data center order backlog. Other potential solutions include fuel cells, co-located nuclear plants, and repurposed Bitcoin mining sites, but Morgan Stanley's base case still shows a supply shortfall. Companies such as Bloom Energy, Constellation Energy, Vistra, Talen Energy, Core Scientific, IREN, and Cipher Mining also stand to benefit from the power crunch. The analysis suggests the AI industry's biggest obstacle has shifted from semiconductor supply to electricity supply, with owners of existing power assets poised to capture significant value.

Bloom Energy and Oklo present contrasting investment cases for 2026 as AI-driven energy demand surges. Bloom Energy, founded in 2001, reported fiscal 2025 revenue of nearly $2.0 billion, a 37.3% increase, but posted a net loss of roughly $88.4 million, while Oklo, a pre-revenue developer of small modular reactors, reported no revenue and a net loss of approximately $105.7 million. Bloom Energy has secured major partnerships, including a $1.7 billion project with Nebius and a financing framework with Brookfield Asset Management, whereas Oklo has signed a 12-gigawatt agreement with Switch and a 1.2-gigawatt prepayment agreement with Meta Platforms. The article concludes that Bloom Energy is the better buy now, citing its proven fuel cell technology, a 40% stock price retreat from its all-time high, and the prospect of year-over-year revenue doubling in 2026.

Bloom Energy reported its first quarter with revenue exceeding $1 billion, a 165.5% increase, and swung to a GAAP net profit of $196.3 million from a loss of $42.6 million a year earlier. GAAP gross margin improved to 33.4% from 26.7%. Despite the strong results, the stock has been volatile, trading around $218 on July 31 after opening at $214.19 on July 24 and dipping to $175.30 on July 28. The company's shares have returned nearly 140% year-to-date, 453% over the past 12 months, and 850% over five years, raising the bar for future earnings surprises.