KeyCorp

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said at the Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference on Sept. 16 that fixed income, currencies and commodities activity has been relatively softer in the third quarter of 2026, while equity trading has been very strong. The moderation follows a strong first half, when Goldman generated $6.24 billion in investment banking fees, up 52% year over year, and FICC revenues of $8.60 billion, up 9%, as Global Banking & Markets revenues climbed 35% year over year to $28.26 billion. Solomon also indicated that expenses are running higher amid elevated transaction volumes and accelerated technology investments, with non-compensation expenses expected to increase by more than $500 million sequentially in the third quarter. Citigroup management expects third-quarter markets revenues to grow in the mid-single digits year over year and investment banking revenues to rise in the low-single digits, while KeyCorp raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 8% from a prior target of 7-8%, citing non-interest income growth of 4-5% and net interest income growth of 9-11%.

KeyCorp and its banking affiliates have raised their prime lending rate to 7.00 percent from 6.75 percent, effective tomorrow, Sept. 17, 2026. The Cleveland-based company, which operates under the KeyBank National Association name, announced the move on Sept. 16, 2026. KeyCorp is one of the nation's largest bank-based financial services companies, with assets of approximately $191 billion at June 30, 2026. It serves individuals and businesses in 15 states through a network of approximately 950 branches and approximately 1,100 ATMs, and provides corporate and investment banking products to middle market companies under the KeyBanc Capital Markets trade name.

Citigroup now expects full-year 2026 return on tangible common equity to exceed 11%, up from its prior target of 10-11%, CFO Gonzalo Luchetti said at the Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference. The bank expects 2026 net interest income excluding Markets to grow at the high end of, or slightly above, its previous 5-6% target range, driven by higher activity across deposits, lending, payments, investment banking and wealth management. On costs, stranded costs have fallen from roughly $1.3 billion annually to about $200 million per quarter, and Citigroup plans to bring forward about $500 million of previously planned spending into 2026, including severance and investments in Cards and Wealth, while still expecting its 2026 efficiency ratio to come in slightly better than the previously targeted 60%. Management also expects approximately $800 million of deferred tax asset utilization in 2026, which supports both ROTCE and capital efficiency. The higher outlook builds toward Citigroup's existing 11-13% ROTCE target for 2027-28 and 14-15% medium-term goal; separately, KeyCorp raised its 2026 revenue growth guidance to approximately 8% from 7-8%, and Citizens Financial expects 2026 net interest income growth to exceed its initial 10-12% target.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan expects third-quarter 2026 investment banking fees of $1.6-$1.8 billion, below the $2 billion booked in the third quarter of 2025, a decline of about 15% year over year at the midpoint and roughly 20% from $2.14 billion in the second quarter of 2026. Moynihan also expects sales and trading revenues to be relatively flat year over year, implying around $5.36 billion based on third-quarter 2025 levels, putting combined investment banking and trading revenues at $6.96-$7.16 billion, down from $7.36 billion a year earlier. The softer outlook reflects slower financing and prime-brokerage activity as well as unusually strong year-ago performance, and investment banking fees represented nearly 15% of Bank of America's $13.81 billion of third-quarter 2025 non-interest income, though management projects investment management AUM fees to rise 10-15% year over year in the current quarter. Moynihan called the deal pipeline very strong, suggesting the weakness is timing-related rather than structural, even as expenses are expected to run around $18.6 billion. Among peers, Citigroup expects markets revenues to grow in the mid-single digits year over year and investment banking revenues to rise in the low single digits, while KeyCorp raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to approximately 8% growth from a prior 7-8% target, driven by non-interest income now expected to grow 4-5% instead of 3-4%, with net interest income still seen up 9-11%.

KeyCorp raised its 2026 financial guidance during its presentation at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference. The bank now expects 2026 revenue to grow about 8% from 2025's $7.51B, up from prior guidance of about 7%. Net interest income is expected to rise 9% to 11%, compared with previous guidance of 8% to 10%; the metric stood at $4.67B for 2025. Noninterest income is estimated to increase 4% to 5% from 2025's $2.84B, up from the earlier 3% to 4% guidance, while on an adjusted basis it is expected to rise 6% to 7% from 2025's $2.5B, versus prior guidance of 5% to 6%. Adjusted noninterest expense guidance was revised to about 4% growth from 3% to 4%, against 2025's $4.73B. Average loans are projected to increase 4% to 5% from 2025's $105.7B, compared with the earlier 1% to 2% guidance, with commercial loans set to rise 8% to 10% from 2025's $74.5B, up from prior guidance of about 5%.

Amazon stands to gain between $180 billion and $240 billion from its stake in Anthropic when the AI company goes public as early as October. Anthropic privately filed its S-1 on June 1 and could be valued north of $1 trillion, with secondary-market trades implying a roughly $1.2 trillion valuation. Amazon has invested over $13 billion in Anthropic and owns 15% to 20% of the company, and it already recorded $16.8 billion in pre-tax gains on the investment in the first quarter of 2026. The IPO is also expected to accelerate AWS growth, as Anthropic will channel much of its new capital into Amazon's cloud infrastructure, prompting KeyBanc to raise its Amazon price target to $335. However, hedge fund ownership of Amazon dipped to 353 funds in Q1 2026 from 381 the prior quarter, signaling some institutional caution despite the potential windfall.

Scotiabank announced that the expected net income contribution from its ownership interest in KeyCorp will be approximately CAD $82 million in the third quarter of 2026. This contribution represents the Bank's share of KeyCorp's second quarter 2026 net income, includes acquisition-related and other accounting impacts, is net of the Bank's associated funding costs, and is reported on a one-month lag. Adjusting for the amortization of acquired intangible assets of approximately CAD $8 million, the Bank's adjusted net income contribution from KeyCorp will be approximately CAD $90 million. Scotiabank will release its third quarter financial results and host an earnings conference call on August 25, 2026.

KeyCorp reported a rise in second-quarter profit. Earnings totaled $473 million, or $0.44 per share, compared with $389 million, or $0.35 per share, in the same period last year. Revenue increased 6.7% to $1.964 billion from $1.840 billion a year earlier. Excluding items, adjusted earnings were $0.44 per share.

KeyCorp’s board declared a third-quarter common share dividend of US$0.205 and dividends on its Series D, E, F, G, and H preferred shares, all payable on September 15, 2026. The announcement comes alongside a recent Moody’s issuer rating upgrade, signaling that regulators and rating agencies view the bank’s balance sheet as sound. While the maintained common dividend suggests no immediate change, the bank’s capital return plans remain sensitive to potential higher stress capital buffer requirements from the Federal Reserve that could constrain future payouts. Analyst projections see KeyCorp reaching $9.4 billion in revenue and $2.5 billion in earnings by 2029, implying 9.3% annual revenue growth and a $0.7 billion earnings increase from current levels.

A new Key Wealth poll finds that nearly two-thirds of mass affluent Americans who expect an inheritance are making financial decisions based on it, even though most have never confirmed one is coming. The 2026 Inheritance Pulse Poll shows that 64% of Mass Affluent Inheritors say an anticipated windfall is reshaping their financial choices, and 36% have already saved or invested at least $100,000 less because of it. Only 34% formed their expectations through a direct family conversation with specific figures, timing, or conditions, while half of those who never discussed it say they do not want to appear to be counting on the money. The poll also reveals a preparedness gap among women, who are set to inherit more but are less likely to have discussed inheritance with a financial advisor or to consider it a significant part of their long-term plan.

KeyCorp, through its KeyBank unit, has financed affordable senior housing development in Ohio and partnered with major sports franchises to increase outreach and brand visibility, including diversity-focused community programs. These moves signal a broader push by KeyCorp to deepen its local presence beyond traditional banking services. The stock, trading at $23.02, has returned 30.0% over the past year and is up 9.7% year to date. Analysts have set a consensus target of $25.27, about 9% above the current price, while Simply Wall St estimates the stock is trading 38.5% below fair value.

KeyCorp is positioned to potentially beat earnings estimates again, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.18% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The company has surpassed consensus estimates in its last two quarters, with an average surprise of 7.61%, including a 7.32% beat last quarter when it reported $0.44 per share versus the $0.41 estimate. Its next earnings report is scheduled for July 21, 2026. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank historically results in a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time.

KeyBank has provided a total of $56 million in financing for Clover Glen II, a new 96-unit affordable housing project for seniors aged 55 and older in Galloway, Ohio. The financing package includes a $16.5 million taxable construction loan, a $9.4 million federal low-income housing tax credit equity investment, and an $8.2 million state low-income housing tax credit investment from KeyBank Community Development Lending and Investment, along with an $8.2 million Freddie Mac permanent loan from KeyBank Commercial Mortgage Group and $13.82 million in tax-exempt bonds underwritten by KeyBanc Capital Markets. The project, developed by National Church Residences, will feature one-bedroom units with senior-oriented design and amenities such as a fitness center and clubhouse, with rents restricted to households earning between 50% and 70% of area median income.

KeyCorp is expected to report fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings of $0.43 per share, a 22.9% increase from $0.35 a year ago, when it announces results before the market opens on Tuesday, July 21. The company has beaten Wall Street EPS estimates in each of its last four quarterly reports. For the full fiscal year, analysts project EPS of $1.82, up 21.3% from $1.50 in fiscal 2025, with further growth to $2.15 expected in fiscal 2027. KeyCorp shares have gained 35.6% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming the S&P 500's 19.8% return. Analysts rate the stock a Moderate Buy with an average price target of $24.26, implying 4.3% upside.

The Federal Reserve's annual stress test found that the 32 largest U.S. banks could absorb more than $708 billion in losses under a severe global recession scenario while continuing to lend. The hypothetical scenario included unemployment surging to 10%, a 39% drop in commercial real estate prices, and a 30% decline in home prices. The industry's common equity tier 1 capital ratio fell by 1.6 percentage points but remained well above required minimums, with projected losses including roughly $200 billion from credit cards, $160 billion from commercial and industrial loans, and $75 billion from commercial real estate. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the results underscore the strength of the banking system. Unlike previous years, the results will not affect capital requirements until 2027 as regulators rework the methodology, and KBW analysts noted that banks are more focused on the pending Basel III Endgame proposal.

KeyCorp has announced a new fixed-income offering of senior and subordinated medium-term notes due 2031, alongside a roughly US$1 billion technology and AI investment plan. The bond issuance and tech spending come as the regional bank reports revenue and earnings beats driven by commercial loan growth, wider net interest margins, and higher fee income. Rising institutional ownership further highlights how KeyCorp is funding growth while attracting large, long-term shareholders. The company's narrative projects US$9.3 billion in revenue and US$2.5 billion in earnings by 2029, requiring 9% yearly revenue growth and a US$0.7 billion earnings increase from US$1.8 billion.

KeyCorp has launched a fixed income offering of senior and subordinated medium term notes due 2031, providing insight into the bank's capital structure. The stock recently traded at $22.59, with a most followed narrative pointing to a fair value around $25.03, implying a 9.7% discount. KeyCorp's one-year total shareholder return stands at 45.70%, supported by a 30-day return of 5.12% and a 90-day return of 16.38%. The anticipated shift from net interest income headwinds to tailwinds, driven by fixed asset repricing and swap and treasury maturities, is expected to significantly enhance NII in forthcoming quarters.