KGI upgrades Thai beverage sector to Outperform, picks CBG as top 4Q26 pick

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โดย HoonVision·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

KGI Securities has raised its investment rating on Thailand's beverage sector to Outperform from Neutral, selecting CBG as its sole top pick for 4Q26, followed by OSP and ICHI. The research team views the recent share price decline as an opportunity to re-accumulate, as pressure from higher raw material costs following escalating US-Iran tensions and the low season in 3Q26F are only short-term factors that will not affect medium-term margins. The research team expects combined 2H26F earnings for the sector to grow both HoH and YoY, led by CBG, while 3Q26F core earnings should still grow YoY on revenue growth and good cost control at OSP and ICHI. Demand for Thai beverages remains mixed, with energy drinks growing 2.6% YoY in the year to June 2026 versus +1.8% in March, while ready-to-drink tea contracted 2% versus -6%, and the research team expects both categories to continue contracting YoY in 3Q26F but at a slower rate. After 3Q26F, intensifying El Niño conditions could be a catalyst driving demand significantly through 1H27F. Following the release of 2Q26 results, the market has revised up earnings for both CBG and OSP, bringing the sector's new 2026-27F earnings to -2%/+1% YTD from -3%/-3% previously, while ICHI's estimates remain unchanged. The research team's 2026F-27F core earnings reflect growth of 3%/9% YoY and are now close to consensus.

Impact on stocks 3

Consumer Staples▲ · 3 stocks
Carabao Group Public Company Limited
CBG
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

KGI upgrades Thai beverage sector to Outperform and names CBG as its sole top 4Q26 pick, viewing the recent share price decline as a re-accumulation opportunity.

Osotspa Public Company Limited
OSP
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

KGI lists OSP as a pick after CBG, with 3Q26F core earnings expected to grow YoY on revenue growth and good cost control.

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