Ichitan Group Public Company Limited

Asia Plus Securities' research team has issued an analysis of beverage stocks ICHI and OSP after both announced interim dividend payments from first-half results, along with an assessment of third-quarter 2026 and full-year 2026 trends. ICHI reported normalized profit of 309 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 8% quarter-on-quarter but down 1% year-on-year, 7% below the research team's estimate but close to market expectations. The quarter-on-quarter profit growth came from an 11% quarter-on-quarter rise in sales, driven by the hot season and the Thai Chuay Thai Plus stimulus measures. For the third quarter of 2026, profit is expected to be flat quarter-on-quarter despite entering the low season, because alkaline water sales continue to expand well both domestically and through new exports to China and Canada, and the company may begin original equipment manufacturing services. However, profit is expected to decline slightly year-on-year due to lower margins from higher packaging costs. The company announced a first-half dividend of 0.45 baht per share, representing a yield of 3.0%. The research team maintains its full-year 2026 normalized profit estimate at 1.25 billion baht, up 1% year-on-year, and keeps a speculative buy recommendation with a target price of 15.80 baht. For OSP, normalized profit in the second quarter of 2026 was 1.1 billion baht, down 5% quarter-on-quarter but up 9% year-on-year, close to both the research team's and market expectations. The quarter-on-quarter profit decline came from a 4% quarter-on-quarter drop in sales, with beverages down 5% quarter-on-quarter due to Myanmar import regulations and other products down 7% quarter-on-quarter following a policy to reduce glass bottle production for external customers. Meanwhile, year-on-year profit growth was supported by a record gross margin of 42.8% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 41.9% in the second quarter of 2025, and selling and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales fell 2.1 percentage points to 22.5%. For the third quarter of 2026, profit is expected to contract quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal sales slowdown and higher raw material costs from the war situation, but still grow year-on-year thanks to production efficiency and marketing expense control. The research team maintains its full-year 2026 normalized profit estimate at 3.89 billion baht, up 11% year-on-year, and upgrades its recommendation to buy from speculative buy, using a 2027 target price of 19.20 baht. It expects profit recovery both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, alongside the company's announced dividend of 0.45 baht per share, representing a yield of 2.6%.

Land and Houses Securities has issued an analysis recommending a buy on BTG with a target price of 23.62 baht, and on ICHI with a target price of 16.36 baht, while also assessing support and resistance levels for each stock. For BTG, second-quarter 2026 results came in below expectations, with net profit of 598.4 million baht, down 76.9 percent from a year earlier, due to weaker domestic pork and chicken prices, higher raw material and transport costs, and a special expense of 128 million baht from writing off tax credits in Cambodia. However, the second half is expected to recover as meat prices improve on tighter supply and accelerating domestic demand. For ICHI, second-quarter 2026 profit was 309 million baht, down 24.1 percent from a year earlier but up 7.9 percent from the previous quarter, as overseas sales fell sharply even though domestic sales still grew 6.6 percent. The company announced an interim dividend of 0.45 baht per share. Normal profit in the third quarter is expected to be flat from the previous quarter, supported by new products in collaboration with well-known brands, overseas market expansion, and cost control.

Kasikorn Securities has maintained its buy recommendation on ICHI shares and raised its target price to 16.10 baht, after the company reported second-quarter 2026 normalized profit of 309 million baht, down 1 percent from a year earlier but up 8 percent from the previous quarter. The result came in below the research team's earlier estimate due to weaker-than-expected revenue, although the cost impact was better than anticipated. The research team has slightly adjusted its 2026 to 2028 profit forecasts by 0 to 2 percent, reflecting a better-than-expected gross margin. It expects pressure from PET costs to peak in the third quarter of 2026, but still forecasts normalized profit in the first half of 2026 to grow 6 percent from a year earlier. The higher target price reflects the revised earnings estimates and an increase in the target price-to-earnings ratio from 15 times to 16 times, driven by better-than-expected cost clarity.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited stated that ICHI reported second quarter 2569 core profit of 309 million baht, up 8% year on year and 8% quarter on quarter, excluding a special gain from land sales of 120 million baht in the second quarter of 2568. Total revenue was 2.1 billion baht, down 5% year on year but up 11% quarter on quarter. Domestic revenue, which accounted for 97% of total revenue, still grew 7% year on year despite the impact of longer than normal machine maintenance causing some product shortages, and alkaline water production overlapping with other product lines. Alkaline water is expected to grow 100% year on year and 6% quarter on quarter, accounting for 13 to 14% of revenue. Meanwhile, overseas revenue fell 81% year on year, mainly from lower Cambodia sales and lower OEM sales due to the fake coconut water problem in China. Gross margin was 23.5%, compared with 24.0% in the second quarter of 2568 and 24.1% in the first quarter of 2569, better than expected even though packaging costs rose. SG&A expenses to sales increased to 9.8% from 7.2% and 7.6% respectively, due to community and social investment promotion measures of 36 million baht, compared with 8 million baht in the first quarter of 2569, and the company received tax benefits of 72 million baht. The second half of 2569 trend is expected to improve in both revenue and easing costs. First half profit accounted for 47% of the full year 2569 normalized profit estimate of 1.26 billion baht, up 5% year on year. Second half profit is expected to increase both year on year and from the first half, supported by the El Nino period expected from October to March 2570, new alkaline water flavors launching in September, production returning to normal, full shelves, and easing costs. If oil does not exceed 90 to 95 dollars, it is still manageable. The company estimates 2570 profit to increase 17% from 8% revenue growth and lower costs. Medium to long term picture still has supporting factors, including high margin alkaline water still growing strongly and set to become the second best selling product after green tea. Production capacity increases from a partner factory completed in November 2569, supporting growth for at least three years. Depreciation will start to decline by 150 million baht in 2571 and by 50 million baht per year in 2572 to 2574, not yet included in estimates. Tax benefits double from higher community and social investment promotion measures, from investment of 300 million baht to 421 million baht, making tax saving increase from 600 million baht to 842 million baht, with the increase not yet included in estimates, and this applies from the fourth quarter of 2568 to the fourth quarter of 2571. Krungsri Securities selects ICHI as a top pick in the beverage sector, recommends Buy, and adjusts the target price to 2570 at 18.1 baht based on a PER of 16 times. It views ICHI as benefiting the most from El Nino period revenue and easing costs after the war, and expects a high dividend yield of 6.4%.

Bualuang Securities assesses the SET Index over the final five months of 2026 to be in a sideways-up trend, with a range of 1,580 to 1,700 points. Mr. Piriyapol Khongwanit, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management at Bualuang Securities, stated that first-half earnings of Thai listed companies grew strongly, leading to an upward revision of the market's earnings per share estimate by about 4% to 103 baht. When rolling over to mid-2027, the SET Index target becomes 1,710 points. The index is expected to peak in the fourth quarter, supported by the high season for tourism, stable high crude oil prices, and continued foreign capital inflows. Notably, net inflows in July reached as high as 47 billion baht, bringing total net purchases since the start of the year to around 74 billion baht. In the second half, there is potential for additional foreign inflows of 160 to 200 billion baht. On investment strategy, a barbell portfolio is recommended, balancing growth stocks and high-dividend stocks, highlighting five key themes: Long-term Growth, such as GULF, WHAUP, and GUNKUL; Defensive and Yield Play, such as KTB; Normalization and Stimulus, such as COM7, CRC, ERW, and CBG; Event Play from Super El Niño, such as CPF, BTG, and ICHI; and Geopolitical and Inflation Hedge, such as PTT and PTTGC. It also advises avoiding property and asset management stocks due to fragile domestic purchasing power. Meanwhile, US technology stocks remain positive despite short-term corrections, recommending accumulation of quality growth names with clear earnings and valuation support. For Thai technology stocks, only short-term speculative trading is suggested. Mr. Chaiporn Nompitakcharoen, Managing Director of Securities Business at Bualuang Securities, disclosed that for the final five months, the recommended portfolio allocation is 74% equities, 22% fixed income, and 4% alternative assets and gold. The US stock market is viewed as the most attractive, while the firm continues to expand its wealth advisory business and promote block trades to capture the uptrend.

Krungsri Securities forecasts Thai stock market profits for the second quarter of 2026 at 250 to 280 billion baht, down 15 to 24 percent from a year earlier and down 19 to 26 percent from the previous quarter. The refinery group saw volatile earnings on the downside, while the industrial goods, ICT, and power sectors are expected to post profit growth. The research team recommends a speculative strategy on stocks whose results will stand out or have passed their trough. Stocks expected to show Q2 profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter include PTTEP, SCC, SCGP, ADVANC, TRUE, BH, IVL, THANI, TNP, MOSHI, BA, AP, INSET, and ADVICE. Stocks for which Q2 is likely the year's low point and earnings will accelerate in the second half of 2026 include KTB, KBANK, AOT, BDMS, EGCO, ICHI, THAI, and TFG. The top picks are ADVANC, SCC, IVL, BH, KBANK, AOT, and ICHI.

Krungsri Securities, or KSS, says the extension of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measures into the fourth quarter of 2026 is a positive factor for the Thai stock market. Retail lenders such as MTC, KTC, and JMT will benefit, while ICHI is likely to gain from higher sales. KSS estimates MTC will post a net profit of 1.88 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 14 percent from a year earlier, and sees a chance for full-year 2026 profit to beat estimates if loan-loss provisions decline. It gives a 2026 target price of 40 baht. For ICHI, KSS expects a core profit of 306 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 7 percent from both a year earlier and the previous quarter, with a standout dividend yield. It forecasts a 2026 yield of about 6.8 percent and expects an interim dividend for the first half of 0.50 baht per share to be announced this August.

Pi Securities assesses ICHI shares, forecasting second-quarter 2026 sales at 2.1 billion baht, down 5 percent year-on-year, due to a 2 percent decline in ready-to-drink green tea sales, lower OEM sales, and lost sales in international markets from the Thai-Cambodian border conflict. Meanwhile, YenYen sales are expected to recover for a second consecutive quarter, and alkaline water sales continue to hit new record highs, driving non-tea product group sales up 59 percent year-on-year. Gross margin is expected to decline 50 basis points year-on-year from higher plastic pellet costs, but cost pressure is easing after PET resin prices fell to 1,070 US dollars per ton in July 2026 from a peak of 1,260 US dollars per ton in March to April 2026. The ready-to-drink green tea market, valued at 17 to 18 billion baht, returned to year-on-year growth in April 2026 and is trending favorably in the second half of 2026 due to hotter weather from El Niño and the government's Thai Chuay Thai Plus measures. Pi Securities recommends a hold rating for dividend income, with a target price of 16.00 baht, based on a PE multiple of 16 times 2027 earnings, close to the beverage sector average, raised from 13.00 baht to reflect the recovery of the ready-to-drink green tea market and the growth opportunity in alkaline water.

KGI Securities Thailand has upgraded its recommendation on ICHI to buy, with a new target price of 16.50 baht, up from 13.70 baht. The research team has raised its core profit forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 3 to 6 percent, driven by higher gross margins, even though ready-to-drink tea sales are below expectations. It expects a return to 10 percent year-on-year growth in 2027, supported by continued expansion in the alkaline water business, clearer positive effects from El Niño, and lower PET resin costs. The research team also views ICHI as an attractive defensive stock offering high dividend yields, estimating a dividend yield of around 6 percent and an interim dividend for the first half of 0.46 baht per share, representing a yield of 3.1 percent. For the second quarter of 2026, net profit is forecast at 313 million baht, down 23 percent from the same period last year but up 9 percent from the previous quarter, due to a high profit base last year from land sales and seasonally higher sales in the current quarter.

Analysts at TISCO Securities expect Ichitan Group, or ICHI, to pay a dividend of 0.50 baht per share from its first-half 2026 operating results, representing a first-half dividend yield of about 3.5% and a full-year yield of about 7.9%. They maintain a buy recommendation and raise the target price to 17.80 baht from 14.60 baht, reflecting the expansion of alkaline water production capacity and the ability to maintain margins despite higher PET resin costs. Based on these projections, Tan Passakornnatee, director and largest shareholder holding 360,639,600 shares or a 27.74% stake as of March 16, 2026, would receive an interim dividend worth over 180 million baht before tax.

Brokers are advising investors to gradually accumulate stocks in the meat and beverage sectors before the impacts of the El Niño phenomenon become pronounced from late this year into early next year. This follows the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's official declaration on June 11, 2026, that the world has entered El Niño conditions, with a 63% chance it will intensify into a super El Niño between November 2026 and January 2027. This could bring hotter and drier weather than usual to Thailand. Historically, during super El Niño periods, Thailand's average annual rainfall dropped to about 1,446 millimeters, roughly 9.4% below the 40-year long-term average of 1,596 millimeters, while maximum temperatures reached around 41 degrees Celsius, about 2 degrees above normal. In the meat sector, particularly pork, prices are likely to benefit from upward pressure as heat stress slows pig growth and raises disease risk, reducing market supply. Data from 2004 to 2023 shows pork prices rose an average of about 17% during El Niño periods, compared to an average increase of around 12% for chicken. Meanwhile, the beverage and convenience store sectors are expected to be supported by higher beverage consumption during hot weather. Brokers therefore recommend meat stocks such as BTG, TFG, and CPF, and beverage stocks including ICHI, CBG, and OSP, as well as convenience store operator CPALL.