Food stocks gain from weak baht; TU, CPF, BTG, GFPT stand out with targets of 16-25.50 baht

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Summary · why it matters

Analysts say the baht is likely to weaken clearly after the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% at its September 2026 meeting and the Bank of Japan raised its rate to 1.25%, while Thailand's policy rate stands at only 1%, making the interest rate differential a risk of capital outflows and pressuring the baht to weaken further. Prapak Sirivattanaket, Managing Director of Merchant Partners Securities, said on the MorningBrain program on the Tunhoon channel on September 17 that the rapidly strengthening US dollar is a factor pressuring regional currencies. Meanwhile, analysts from InnovestX Securities said the baht's depreciation is a positive factor for food stocks with export exposure, especially Thai Union Group, or TU, Charoen Pokphand Foods, or CPF, Betagro, or BTG, and GFPT. The research team recommends buying TU with a target of 16.00 baht, expecting second-half 2026 profit to grow from the first half, when margin was about 19.8%, after the company raised this year's sales growth target to 4-6% from 3-4%, and expects the full-year 2026 margin to rise to 19.5-20.5%. Analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) recommend buying CPF with a target of 24.20 baht, expecting third-quarter 2026 normalized profit to grow from a year earlier on a recovery in domestic pork and chicken businesses, strong chicken export growth, and the weaker baht. It also recommends buying BTG with a target of 25.50 baht, estimating third-quarter 2026 normalized profit at about 1.4-1.6 billion baht, growing strongly from the previous quarter after pork and chicken prices rebounded sharply in a V-shape and as the export high season begins. It recommends buying GFPT with a target of 14.80 baht, expecting third-quarter 2026 normalized profit to grow from a year earlier because domestic chicken prices rose clearly, with the latest Department of Internal Trade live chicken price up more than 10% from a year earlier, while farming costs held steady.

Impact on stocks 7

Consumer Staples▲ · 4 stocks
Betagro PCL
BTG
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Weaker baht from Fed/BOJ rate hikes boosts export earnings; Yuanta recommends buying BTG with 25.50 baht target on rebounding pork/chicken prices and export high season.

GFPT Public Company Limited
GFPT
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Weaker baht benefits export-oriented food stocks; Yuanta recommends buying GFPT with 14.80 baht target on Q3 normalized profit growth.

Thai Union Group PCL
TU
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Baht weakness is positive for TU's export exposure; InnovestX recommends buying with 16.00 baht target on raised sales growth target and margin expansion.

Others▲ · 3 stocks
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