GFPT Public Company Limited

The Ministry of Commerce reported that Thailand's export value in July 2026 stood at 34.8 billion US dollars, expanding 21.6% year-on-year, higher than the market's expectation of 17.8%. Meanwhile, imports for the same month were 38.4 billion US dollars, up 37.8%, lower than expected, resulting in a trade deficit of 3.61 billion US dollars, less than forecast. Products with good growth include rubber, processed chicken, pet food, processed canned seafood, and electronic goods. Stocks in these sectors, such as STA, GFPT, ITC, TU, DELTA, HANA, and KCE, benefit accordingly. In the first seven months of the year, exports totaled 232 billion US dollars, up 18.2%, while imports were 267 billion US dollars, up 37.8%, with a trade deficit of 35.4 billion US dollars. The Ministry of Commerce sees support from global demand for technology products and digital infrastructure, as well as accelerated imports to prepare for US trade policies. Meanwhile, brokers like Krungsri Securities and Phillip Securities view positively on export-related stocks and recommend top picks such as DELTA, HANA, KCE, AMATA, GULF, GPSC, KBANK, and KTB.

Farm income in July accelerated 10% from a year earlier, marking a fifth straight month of growth and the strongest pace in 20 months, helped by a 12% rise in agricultural prices while output fell 2%. An analysis from Yuanta Securities said products with improving prices included cassava, palm oil and chicken eggs, while hog prices declined. Durian and hog output increased, while cassava, rambutan, mangosteen, oil palm and chicken egg production decreased. Farm income is expected to keep accelerating from the third quarter through the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by continued growth in key product revenue, output affected by drought and lower global supply, a low base last year, and a recovery cycle that typically lasts about 12 months. This cycle has already risen for five months, so there is a chance of at least another five to six months of gains. The agricultural economy accounts for 10% of GDP and involves about 30% of the population, so it is expected to significantly support consumption in the second half of 2026. It should also improve asset quality for financial institutions and ease household debt pressure, which is positive for finance stocks, while stimulating investment in machinery, tractors, water pumps, fertilizer, seeds, solar energy and farmland improvement. Recommended stocks include GFPT, TFG, STA, GLOBAL, DOHOME, MTC, SAWAD, FSMART, DRT, DCC and SAT. The analysis also suggests monitoring APURE, or Agripure Holdings Public Company Limited, whose second-quarter 2025 results recovered with net profit of 56 million baht, accelerating from 12 million baht in the first quarter of 2026 and swinging from a loss of 34 million baht in the second quarter of 2025. This was driven by export sales to Europe surging eight to ten times after Europe restricted Chinese goods seen as dumped, sending large order volumes to APURE. The company has already planned for drought-related costs, and customers bear all shipping costs, so third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to accelerate both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with the best chance in ten quarters. Fourth-quarter profit is expected to be stable quarter-on-quarter and grow strongly year-on-year. If this materializes, full-year profit would be around 250 million baht, up from only 27 million baht last year, implying earnings per share of 0.26 baht. The current share price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 8 times, with an expected dividend yield of 8 to 9 percent per year. Technically, the price has just moved back above the 200-day moving average with positive signals, with resistance at 2.60 baht and 2.80 baht.

Bualuang Securities noted in its analysis today that 12 listed companies reported financial results, split into 6 companies with better-than-expected earnings: PTT, AOT, ERW, PLANB, GFPT, and AMATA, and 6 companies with in-line earnings: TOP, BEM, BGRIM, BDMS, TIDLOR, and OSP, with no company reporting earnings below expectations. PTT reported 2Q26 net profit of 52.5 billion baht, up 144% year on year and 104% quarter on quarter, beating analyst and market expectations, driven by better-than-expected gas business profits. AOT reported 3Q26 net profit of 4.44 billion baht, 6% above analyst expectations and 17% above market expectations, due to lower-than-expected staff expenses. ERW reported 2Q26 core profit of 72 million baht, up 16% year on year but down 81% quarter on quarter on seasonal factors, beating analyst expectations. GFPT reported 2Q26 core profit of 582 million baht, down 12% year on year but up 20% quarter on quarter, beating analyst and market expectations on better-than-expected gross margin. PLANB reported 2Q26 core profit of 297 million baht, up 10% year on year but down 43% quarter on quarter, 4 to 6 percent above analyst and market expectations on better-than-expected gross margin. AMATA reported 2Q26 net profit of 1.58 billion baht, up 1,032% year on year and 15% quarter on quarter, 13% above analyst expectations and 16% above market expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.60 baht per share. For the in-line earnings group, TOP reported 2Q26 core profit of 16 billion baht, up 378% year on year and 74% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst expectations but 11% above market expectations, driven by higher refining margins and lube base margins. BGRIM reported 2Q26 core profit of 478 million baht, up 1% year on year but down 6% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.18 baht per share. BEM reported 2Q26 core profit of 1.01 billion baht, up 2% year on year and 16% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations. BDMS reported 2Q26 core profit of 3.25 billion baht, down 7% year on year and 20% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst expectations but 7% below market expectations. TIDLOR reported 2Q26 net profit of 1.53 billion baht, up 18% year on year but down 5% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations. OSP reported 2Q26 core profit of 1.10 billion baht, up 9% year on year but down 5% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations. AAV reported a 2Q26 net loss of 2.33 billion baht, swinging from a net profit both year on year and quarter on quarter, with results in line with analyst expectations but the loss 17% smaller than market expectations.

InnovestX Securities states that the signing of an MOU extending the employment period for over four million Myanmar workers in Thailand by another five years will help unlock the most critical labour bottleneck for Thailand's labour-intensive industrial sector. It also aims to push bilateral trade value to 12 billion US dollars, up from around 7.4 billion dollars, through accelerating border checkpoint restoration, using local currency payment systems, and promoting infrastructure investment, especially the Dawei Special Economic Zone project. However, risks remain from Western sanctions that could pressure the valuation of stocks with concessions or direct investment linked to the Myanmar military government. For short-term investment strategy, the firm recommends speculative trading based on news factors for beneficiary stocks, divided into two themes: groups directly benefiting from more stable labour cost management, such as CK, STECON, GFPT, BTG, CPF, and groups benefiting from a recovering border trade atmosphere, such as MEGA, TNP, CBG, OSP, CHG, BCH.

Japan's cabinet has approved a reduction in the consumption tax on food and beverage items from 8% to 1% for a period of two years, starting April 2027. This marks the first such tax cut since the consumption tax system was introduced in 1989. The measure is part of a plan to ease the impact of inflation under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, aiming to reduce the cost of living and stimulate domestic spending. The government also plans to distribute cash handouts to low- and middle-income earners under a budget of approximately 600 billion yen per year, effectively bringing the real tax burden for the target group down to zero. Bualuang Securities stated that this measure provides significant support for consumption in Japan and benefits Thai food exporters, particularly GFPT through its subsidiaries GFN and McKey, which supply chicken parts to fast-food restaurants in Japan, as well as TU, which earns revenue from tuna products in the Japanese market, and ITC, an exporter of pet food to that market.

Pie Securities expects GFPT to post a net profit of 550 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, down 14 percent from a year earlier but up 6 percent from the previous quarter, better than its earlier estimate. The improvement reflects limited impact from rising costs so far, together with the onset of the high season for exports, which supports a still-healthy gross margin of 16 percent. Revenue is forecast at 4.59 billion baht, down 6 percent year-on-year, in line with export volume of 8,000 tonnes, down from 8,500 tonnes in the second quarter of 2025 after China began banning chicken exports from Thailand, but up from 7,500 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026 as the high season gets underway. Gross margin is projected at 16.4 percent, down from 16.7 percent in the second quarter of 2025 after selling prices to Japan declined, but improving from 14.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026 thanks to higher export volumes. Meanwhile, the impact of rising costs is still limited because old inventory remains. Share of profit from investments in associates is estimated at 132 million baht, down 33 percent year-on-year and 10 percent quarter-on-quarter, dragged down by GFN after domestic chicken carcass prices are expected to fall to just 11 to 12 baht per kilogramme, from 14.5 baht per kilogramme in the second quarter of 2025 and 13.5 baht per kilogramme in the first quarter of 2026. First-half 2026 net profit accounts for 54 percent of the full-year profit the research team forecasts at 1.97 billion baht. However, given the risk of a greater cost impact becoming more visible in the third quarter of 2026, the research team is keeping its full-year profit estimate unchanged. The team maintains a buy recommendation for speculative trading based on domestic chicken prices, with a fair value of 12.60 baht.

Thailand's exports in June 2026 expanded 20.8 percent from a year earlier, exceeding market expectations of around 15 percent, with a value of 34.6 billion dollars. Meanwhile, imports rose 50.3 percent to 41.1 billion dollars, resulting in a trade deficit of approximately 6.53 to 6.57 billion dollars. Key export growth drivers included pet food, which expanded for the tenth consecutive month, rising 22 percent, supporting ITC and AAI. Processed chicken grew for the seventh straight month, up 8.2 percent, boosting GFPT. Computers and components expanded for the 27th consecutive month, rising 57.4 percent, while phones, equipment, and components grew for the 13th straight month, surging 186 percent, benefiting electronic component stocks such as DELTA, HANA, and CCET. Rubber returned to growth for the first time in 14 months, supporting STA. On the risk side, new US tariff measures under Section 301 could affect some export stocks in the second half of the year.

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Commerce reported that Thai exports in June 2026 reached 34.66 billion dollars, up 20.8 percent from the same month last year, extending growth for a 24th consecutive month and exceeding market expectations of 13.7 to 15.2 percent. Meanwhile, imports totaled 41.19 billion dollars, rising 50.3 percent, resulting in a June trade deficit of 6.53 billion dollars. For the first half of the year, exports amounted to 196.74 billion dollars, up 17.6 percent, and imports reached 228.49 billion dollars, up 38.0 percent, leading to a cumulative trade deficit of 31.74 billion dollars. Analysts at Yuanta Securities noted that the stronger-than-expected exports and the deficit are factors weighing on the currency, and highlighted five stock groups poised to benefit: rubber, which returned to growth of 12.5 percent after 14 months, supporting STA, NER, and TEGH; processed chicken, supporting GFPT, TFG, and CPF; pet food, which continued to grow 22.3 percent for a tenth straight month, supporting ITC and AAI; canned seafood, which resumed expansion at 17.5 percent, supporting TU; and electronic components, which accelerated growth, supporting SMT, CCET, KCE, and HANA.

Academics point out that the baht has weakened to a 14-month low of 33.60 per US dollar, benefiting the Thai economy which relies heavily on the external sector accounting for 72% of GDP. The depreciation makes export goods cheaper and stimulates tourism for the remainder of 2026. GFPT reveals that the second half of the year enters the high season, supporting export revenue which accounts for 25% of total revenue. Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities recommends food and electronics stocks that benefit from the weaker baht, highlighting Thai Union, Charoen Pokphand Foods, GFPT, Delta Electronics, Hana Microelectronics, and KCE Electronics as standout stocks worth accumulating.

Asia Plus Securities expects the combined normalised profit of four agriculture and food companies — CPF, GFPT, TU, and ITC — to reach 6.45 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, flat from the previous quarter but down 53 percent from a year earlier. The outlook for the second half of 2026 is seen improving from the first half, driven by the onset of the export season in the third quarter, which is the high season for the sector, along with a likely weaker baht. The livestock segment, represented by CPF and GFPT, is expected to recover on better product prices, while the seafood and pet food segment, represented by TU and ITC, should see cost pressures gradually ease. The research team picks ITC as a top pick, citing second-half profit growth both half-on-half and year-on-year, and GFPT for its strongest second-quarter profit momentum among peers.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, recommends investment strategies for volatile markets, focusing on Energy Hedge plays that benefit from oil prices and geopolitical risks, including PTTEP, BCP, TOP, and IVL, alongside safe-haven stocks. It highlights PTTEP, BCP, and MAGURO as top picks for Thai stocks, while for international exposure it favors BABA80 and SPENGY80. Additionally, it suggests SIRI, GULF, and GFPT as other interesting stocks. ASPS sees an opportunity to rotate investments from AI infrastructure plays to downstream users such as Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Xiaomi, and Alibaba. It also flags the AMD Advancing AI 2026 event on July 23 and the IPO of CXMT on July 27, which could drain liquidity and pressure memory chip prices. On the domestic positive side, the government has attracted over 70 billion baht in foreign direct investment from four major Chinese companies. In the EV sector, Xiaomi is setting up an R&D center and Changan is expanding production capacity to 200,000 units per year by 2030. In AI and data centers, Innolight and Eoptolink are preparing to expand factories in Thailand.