Thai Union Group PCL

The Ministry of Commerce reported that Thailand's export value in July 2026 stood at 34.8 billion US dollars, expanding 21.6% year-on-year, higher than the market's expectation of 17.8%. Meanwhile, imports for the same month were 38.4 billion US dollars, up 37.8%, lower than expected, resulting in a trade deficit of 3.61 billion US dollars, less than forecast. Products with good growth include rubber, processed chicken, pet food, processed canned seafood, and electronic goods. Stocks in these sectors, such as STA, GFPT, ITC, TU, DELTA, HANA, and KCE, benefit accordingly. In the first seven months of the year, exports totaled 232 billion US dollars, up 18.2%, while imports were 267 billion US dollars, up 37.8%, with a trade deficit of 35.4 billion US dollars. The Ministry of Commerce sees support from global demand for technology products and digital infrastructure, as well as accelerated imports to prepare for US trade policies. Meanwhile, brokers like Krungsri Securities and Phillip Securities view positively on export-related stocks and recommend top picks such as DELTA, HANA, KCE, AMATA, GULF, GPSC, KBANK, and KTB.

Thai Union Group disclosed that the UK government's temporary exemption of import tariffs on canned tuna products, from the original 24% until December 2028, is a positive factor for the business because it increases marketing opportunities and supports higher sales in Europe, which previously accounted for about 30% of the company's total sales. Regarding the US Section 301 tariff measure on goods imported from Thailand at a rate of 12.5%, effective from 24 July 2026, the company has planned ahead by continuously adjusting its management strategy, such as considering shifting some product lines to be manufactured in Thailand to enhance competitiveness. In the long term, the company is also moving forward to expand its revenue base from businesses with high gross margins, such as pet food and value-added products, to reach approximately 25-30% of total sales by 2030, up from 20.7%, alongside the Internal Transformation programme to adopt automation to reduce labour costs and production losses. As for the baht, which has been moving in a weaker range and is at a better level than the company's earlier full-year 2026 average estimate of around 32.5 baht per US dollar, this is a positive factor and helps support 2026 revenue even further, in addition to an expanding customer base and continuous new product launches. The company therefore maintains its revenue growth target of 4-6% this year from the previous year. On the analyst side, Maybank Securities Thailand recommends buying TU with a target price of 14.50 baht, viewing the UK's reduction of canned tuna import tariffs from a maximum of 24% to 0% until December 2028, together with possible additional free trade agreements between the Thai government and Europe in the future, as further growth opportunities for TU as Thailand's largest exporter of tuna and shrimp, and expects TU to offer a dividend yield as high as 6%.

Bualuang Securities revealed that net profits for the second quarter of 2069 for stocks under its coverage came in 5.6% above market expectations, with 48% of stocks beating estimates compared to a five-year average of 37%. Standout performers were led by SCC, up 41% from its petrochemical business, SCGP up 20% from packaging and recycling, KKP up 18% from non-interest income, and TU up 10.9% from seafood demand. Meanwhile, DELTA missed profit forecasts by 31% due to supply chain issues. The research team also noted positive signals from IT retail sales at COM7 and ADVICE, which grew 10% and 17% year-on-year in July. In the lifestyle segment, MOSHI saw same-store sales rise 9% on the squishy toy trend. Tourism continued to recover, with foreign arrivals in July reaching 2.5 million, and ERW's revenue per available room expected to grow both year-on-year and month-on-month. Export demand for food and pet food remained strong, with TU projecting 5-6% growth and ITC projecting 10% growth. The investment strategy therefore focuses on COM7, ADVICE, MOSHI, CPALL, ERW, TU, and ITC.

Bualuang Securities reported that aggregate net profit of listed companies that have already reported, covering 32% of stocks under its coverage, came in 5.6% above market expectations and 7.2% above Bualuang's own estimates. Of the stocks that have reported, 48% delivered better-than-expected earnings, exceeding the five-year average of 37%. Notable outperformers included SCC, with profit 41% above expectations, SCGP 20% above, KKP 18% above, and TU 10.9% above. Meanwhile, DELTA reported earnings 31% below expectations due to supply chain issues. Key signals from the earnings season show that cyclical sector profits remain strong but momentum may slow, consumption is recovering selectively with IT and affordable lifestyle products growing well, tourism continues to recover, asset quality in the hire-purchase sector is stable, and demand for food and pet food exports remains robust.

Thai Union Group, or TU, will receive interim dividends from two subsidiaries totaling over 1.4 billion baht. ITC is paying a dividend of 0.55 baht per share, with an XD date of August 11 and payment on August 26. TFM is paying 0.18 baht per share, with an XD date of August 13 and payment also on August 26. Based on TU's shareholding of 79.30 percent in ITC and 51.00 percent in TFM, it will receive approximately 1.308 billion baht from ITC and about 91 million baht from TFM, totaling over 1.4 billion baht. Meanwhile, TU's share price rose 4.27 percent in July, while ITC's share price increased 8.70 percent.

Japan's cabinet has approved a reduction in the consumption tax on food and beverage items from 8% to 1% for a period of two years, starting April 2027. This marks the first such tax cut since the consumption tax system was introduced in 1989. The measure is part of a plan to ease the impact of inflation under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, aiming to reduce the cost of living and stimulate domestic spending. The government also plans to distribute cash handouts to low- and middle-income earners under a budget of approximately 600 billion yen per year, effectively bringing the real tax burden for the target group down to zero. Bualuang Securities stated that this measure provides significant support for consumption in Japan and benefits Thai food exporters, particularly GFPT through its subsidiaries GFN and McKey, which supply chicken parts to fast-food restaurants in Japan, as well as TU, which earns revenue from tuna products in the Japanese market, and ITC, an exporter of pet food to that market.

Bualuang Securities sees TU returning as a short-term standout after pressure from US import tariffs begins to ease and the fundamentals of its core business start to recover. The Ambient Seafood and Frozen Seafood segments, which account for 77% of first-half 2026 revenue, returned to growth of 2% and 5% year-on-year respectively, driven by recovering sales volumes. Meanwhile, the proportion of own-brand products rose to 59% of sales, lifting the first-half 2026 gross margin to 19.8% from 19.3% a year earlier. For the second half of 2026, TU is expected to be supported by still-strong US tuna demand, the exemption of tuna import duties in the UK from 26 June 2026, and a weaker baht. The research team has raised its 2026 earnings forecast for TU by 6%, projecting profit growth of 17%, with a dividend yield of around 6%. The stock trades at a 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of just 10.2 times. It therefore recommends rotating into the stock and has raised the target price to 15.60 baht from 13.60 baht. As for ITC, it remains a long-term growth stock, with earnings expected to grow 13% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, along with a dividend yield of around 6%. Although it trades at a 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 times, which is considered a premium due to its superior structural business growth, the recommendation stays at buy, and the target price has been raised to 22.00 baht from 19.00 baht.

Thai Union Group, or TU, has raised its full-year 2026 average gross margin forecast to 19.5–20.5 percent, up from 19–20 percent, supported by a baht that is weaker than the previous assumption of 32.5 baht per US dollar, together with the frozen food business entering its selling season in the third quarter of 2026, driving higher order volumes. Head of Investor Relations Pinyada Saengsakdahan said the company targets revenue growth of 4–6 percent this year from last year’s revenue of 133 billion baht, after booking 66.3 billion baht in the first half and generating free cash flow of more than 3 billion baht. This brought the net debt-to-equity ratio down to 1.15 times, with a target to reduce it to 1.1 times by year-end, while maintaining a dividend policy of no less than 50 percent of net profit. Analysts at Finansia Syrus Securities recommend a buy with a target price of 14.20 baht. TU has declared an interim dividend of 0.40 baht per share, with the XD date on 14 August 2026.

Thai Union Group, or TU, has raised its 2026 sales growth target to 4–6% from the previous 3–4%, compared with 2025 when total sales reached 133.6 billion baht and net profit was 4.609 billion baht. The upgrade follows stronger-than-expected first-half results, with total sales of 66.329 billion baht and net profit of 2.377 billion baht. The company also lifted its gross margin target to 19.5–20.5% from 19–20%, supported by the pet food and frozen seafood businesses as well as efficient cost management. In addition, the baht weakening past 33 per US dollar since June has benefited revenue and earnings. Full-year capital expenditure has been reduced due to delays in some projects, but the dividend policy of paying out more than 50% of net profit remains unchanged.

Dao Securities Thailand expects the SET Index to recover gradually, supported by a rebound in US technology stocks, which is positive for Thai electronics shares. It warns of resistance at 1,650 points, where profit-taking could emerge. Among top picks, the broker highlights GLOBAL, which posted a second-quarter 2026 net profit of 955 million baht, beating expectations by 40 percent, and raises its target price to 9.00 baht. For TU, net profit came in at 1.3 billion baht, 16 percent above forecast, with a new target price of 14.80 baht. TU also announced a first-half 2026 dividend of 0.4 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of 3 percent.

The new Banpu made its trading debut today after the amalgamation between the former BANPU and BPP was completed on 31 July 2026, resulting in a new public limited company under the name Banpu Public Company Limited. All assets, liabilities, rights, duties and responsibilities have been transferred by law, with no disruption to business continuity or partner relationships. Meanwhile, Thai Union Group reported second-quarter 2026 results reflecting tangible strategy gains, with a record-high gross profit margin, sales volume growth for the tenth consecutive quarter, and a dividend per share increase of over 14%. The board approved an interim dividend of 0.40 baht per share, up 14.3% and the highest since 2022, representing a dividend yield of 3.4%. The prime minister has assigned the deputy prime minister for legal affairs to review the royal endorsement process for the NBTC chairman, stressing that everything must follow the law and that no one has discretionary power above it. In logistics, TPL has undertaken a major group restructuring effective 1 August 2026, clearly separating the roles of the parent company and operating entities, along with new executive appointments. EASTW received a buy recommendation from Kasikorn Securities with a target price of 6.70 baht, as the market has yet to fully price in growth potential from the data centre theme, given its extensive water pipeline network and high production capacity relative to peers, positioning it to capture new water demand flowing into data centres.

Thai Union Group Public Company Limited, or TU, will receive total dividends of approximately 1.31 billion baht after i-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited, or ITC, a subsidiary in which TU holds a 79.30% stake, announced an interim dividend payment of 0.55 baht per share, representing a payout ratio of 96.2% from first-half 2026 operating results. ITC reported sales of 10.04 billion baht, up 15.1% from the same period last year, and adjusted net profit of 1.96 billion baht, up 22.5%. The XD date is set for 11 August 2026, with dividend payment on 26 August 2026. The dividend will help strengthen TU's cash flow and financial position.

The independent financial advisor, or IFA, has approved ITC Corporation lending to Thai Union Group, or TU, its major shareholder with an approximately 79.30% stake, a loan of up to 6 billion baht with a term of no more than five years and an annual interest rate of 2.50%. The purpose is to enhance the efficiency of surplus cash management and increase investment returns for ITC under an appropriate level of risk. The loan is unsecured and can be called early with 30 days' notice. The IFA views the transaction as reasonable and beneficial to ITC and will present it to the extraordinary general meeting of shareholders for approval on 24 August 2026.

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Commerce reported that Thai exports in June 2026 reached 34.66 billion dollars, up 20.8 percent from the same month last year, extending growth for a 24th consecutive month and exceeding market expectations of 13.7 to 15.2 percent. Meanwhile, imports totaled 41.19 billion dollars, rising 50.3 percent, resulting in a June trade deficit of 6.53 billion dollars. For the first half of the year, exports amounted to 196.74 billion dollars, up 17.6 percent, and imports reached 228.49 billion dollars, up 38.0 percent, leading to a cumulative trade deficit of 31.74 billion dollars. Analysts at Yuanta Securities noted that the stronger-than-expected exports and the deficit are factors weighing on the currency, and highlighted five stock groups poised to benefit: rubber, which returned to growth of 12.5 percent after 14 months, supporting STA, NER, and TEGH; processed chicken, supporting GFPT, TFG, and CPF; pet food, which continued to grow 22.3 percent for a tenth straight month, supporting ITC and AAI; canned seafood, which resumed expansion at 17.5 percent, supporting TU; and electronic components, which accelerated growth, supporting SMT, CCET, KCE, and HANA.

ITC shares rose 5.52% to 17.20 baht after investors bought in on news that the weaker baht is supporting the export sector and the market eased concerns over the impact of lending to its parent company TU. This morning the baht moved in a range of 33.77 to 33.79 baht per dollar, compared with yesterday's close of 33.81 baht per dollar. Asia Plus Securities maintained a buy recommendation on ITC and TU with target prices of 18.90 baht and 13.20 baht respectively, noting that the lending case is unlikely to have an impact because it believes the company will allocate investment funds efficiently and can call for early repayment. The pullback in the share price therefore presents an investment opportunity.

Analysts at InnovestX Securities say the SET Index has risen over 31.2% from the start of the year to date, supported by foreign fund flows into electronics on the AI theme and better-than-expected domestic fundamentals. But at 1,650 points, the market is starting to face tight valuation constraints, especially for the large-cap stocks that have led the rally, where foreign ownership has exceeded the five-year average. They therefore expect a rotation of funds into laggard stocks where foreign ownership and valuations are below average, while earnings are still growing well. The short-term strategy recommends switching into laggard stocks via two themes. The first is Earnings Play, focusing on stocks with strong expected second-quarter 2026 earnings growth and a robust second half, such as ADVANC, CPN, GULF, PR9, SCGP, and TIDLOR. The second is Foreign Underowned Play, focusing on SET50 stocks where foreign ownership is below the five-year average and earnings momentum is good, such as BEM, CPALL, HMPRO, MTC, OR, TRUE, and TU.

Analysts recommend watching KISS and TU shares after their fourth-quarter 2024 results showed a recovery. KISS reported a net profit of 120 million baht, swinging from a loss in the same period last year, while TU posted a net profit of 1.2 billion baht, up 15 percent from the previous year, supported by expanding overseas sales. Both companies expect the trend in 2025 to continue growing in line with the recovery in global demand.

Analysts assess that the baht is likely to continue weakening in the third quarter of 2026, with Krungsri expecting a trading range of 32 to 34 baht per US dollar and full-year exports possibly expanding by 9.8 percent. Meanwhile, analysts at Bualuang Securities view that the agricultural and food export sector will clearly recover in the second half of the year, with the weak second-quarter earnings caused by geopolitical factors and freight costs marking the low point of the year. They therefore recommend accumulating BTG as the top pick, followed by CPF and ITC in the pet food segment, which is supported by real demand and an expanding new customer base. TU, on the other hand, mainly benefits from foreign exchange gains only.

Krungsri Securities disclosed that the latest progress on the Thailand Individual Savings Account, or TISA, scheme is currently in the final stage of study and condition revision, with clarity expected by September. Meanwhile, the proposal to raise the investment ceiling for tax deductions is still under review for suitability. The research team assesses that the scheme will be positive for the Thai stock market due to long-term fund inflows, with every 10 billion baht of new money supporting the index by 25 to 30 points. This will benefit large-cap stocks in investment themes such as GULF, GPSC, KBANK, KTB, ADVANC, AMATA, and WHA, as well as service-sector stocks like BDMS, BH, and AOT. Additionally, the approval of the five-year national fisheries management plan will help reduce trade barrier risks and enhance ESG credibility, positively impacting seafood and food export stocks such as TU and ITC.

The Thai stock market is entering the period for second-quarter 2026 earnings announcements and interim dividend payments. Bualuang Securities' Wealth Research team notes that the SET Dividend Yield for 2026 is expected to be around 3.5 percent, compared with the 10-year Thai government bond yield of approximately 2.0 percent, resulting in a yield spread of about 1.5 percent, which is above the long-term average. This reflects that stocks still offer an additional return relative to bonds. The highlight this round is the combination of yield and earnings growth, with many companies likely to see upward earnings revisions or no significant downward adjustments over the past three months. The energy sector remains a key driver due to higher energy prices, while the communications sector is beginning to show more qualitative growth, with ADVANC and TRUE supported by recovering ARPU and subscriber numbers. The food and beverage sector is seeing positive signals from easing costs, with OSP standing out in margin management, TU benefiting from lower raw material costs, and CPF supported by recovering agricultural commodity price trends. The hospital sector is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year, driven by returning Thai patient revenue and improving foreign patient demand. The strategy continues to focus on selecting individual stocks with strong cash flows, the ability to maintain margins, and consistent dividend payments.

Academics point out that the baht has weakened to a 14-month low of 33.60 per US dollar, benefiting the Thai economy which relies heavily on the external sector accounting for 72% of GDP. The depreciation makes export goods cheaper and stimulates tourism for the remainder of 2026. GFPT reveals that the second half of the year enters the high season, supporting export revenue which accounts for 25% of total revenue. Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities recommends food and electronics stocks that benefit from the weaker baht, highlighting Thai Union, Charoen Pokphand Foods, GFPT, Delta Electronics, Hana Microelectronics, and KCE Electronics as standout stocks worth accumulating.

Asia Plus Securities expects the combined normalised profit of four agriculture and food companies — CPF, GFPT, TU, and ITC — to reach 6.45 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, flat from the previous quarter but down 53 percent from a year earlier. The outlook for the second half of 2026 is seen improving from the first half, driven by the onset of the export season in the third quarter, which is the high season for the sector, along with a likely weaker baht. The livestock segment, represented by CPF and GFPT, is expected to recover on better product prices, while the seafood and pet food segment, represented by TU and ITC, should see cost pressures gradually ease. The research team picks ITC as a top pick, citing second-half profit growth both half-on-half and year-on-year, and GFPT for its strongest second-quarter profit momentum among peers.